저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
짐 로저스는 과도한 통화 발행이 화폐 가치를 떨어뜨리고 실물자산(원자재)이 상대적으로 오를 것이며, 미국이 역사상 최대 채무국이라 앞으로 더 큰 약세장(베어마켓)이 올 것이라고 경고한다. 통화 발행과 채무 문제: 미국·일본 등 주요국의 과도한 화폐 발행으로 통화가 약해지고 실물자산이 오른다는 주장. 미국은 역사상 최대 채무국이며 누가 국채를 사든 문제가 있다고 봄. 2008년보다 현재 글로벌 부채가 훨씬 커서 다음 위기는 생애 최악이 될 것이라 전망. 국가별 평가: 일본은 돈을 매일 찍어내지만 그래도 일본 ETF를 보유하고 있음. 중국이 일본보다 낫다고 평가. 어떤 나라는 다른 나라보다 더 나은 상태로 위기를 빠져나갈 것이라 봄. 원자재 사이클: 고가가 수요를 줄이고 공급을 늘리며, 저가가 반대 작용하는 사이클이 수백~수천 년간 반복됨. 셰일 붐은 버블 붕괴 후 끝났고 원유 매장량은 감소 추세. 은은 사상 최고가 대비 45%, 설탕은 70~80%, 원유는 50% 이상 하락해 원자재가 현재 유일하게 저렴한 자산군이라 주장. 에너지 전환: 석유 수요는 줄 수 있지만 전기차는 일반 차보다 구리를 5배 더 쓰므로 구리·납·리튬 등 수요가 증가할 것이라 봄. 중앙은행 및 인플레이션: 역사적으로 뛰어난 중앙은행가는 드물고 현 중앙은행은 인플레이션이 없다고 말하지만 실제로는 더 많은 인플레이션이 올 것이라 주장. 금·은은 인플레이션 헤지 수단으로 인기. 중앙은행은 시장이 무너지면 더 많이 찍어 마지막 큰 랠리를 만들 것이며 그것이 마지막 랠리일 가능성이 높다고 봄. 버블 경고: 자산 버블은 역사적으로 반복되며 과열 시 신규 투자자가 몰리다 결국 터져 많은 사람이 손실을 본다. 1990년대 말 나스닥이 6개월 만에 두 배가 된 사례를 들며 최근의 급등을 블로우오프(폭등 후 붕괴) 신호로 해석. 출연자 전망: 올해 짐 로저스는 아무것도 매도하거나 공매도하지 않았으며, 이 상황이 끝났다고 보지 않는다고 밝힘. 채권은 버블 상태, 일부 주식도 버블 형성 중이나 많은 기업은 여전히 하락 중이라 평가. 리스크: 글로벌 부채 누적, 통화 가치 하락, 자산 버블 붕괴, 이후 더 큰 약세장 가능성.
다듬은 글
in this video we'll look at what jim rogers has to say regarding the next bear market before we begin please like the video and subscribe to our channel for more educational content like this let's get to the video according to jim rogers historically printing a large amount of money has resulted in the debasement of your currency when currencies fall something must rise against them and real assets normally rise against currencies he believes that the future price of actual items will rise in the near future they've always had anyway you must also evaluate the supply and demand concerns the united states is the world's largest debtor nation in history it makes no difference who quits buying us treasuries we have an issue he said even if people continue to buy our trouble we will have a problem nobody prints out money as quickly as the united states and japan for example they still have interest rates in china not enormous interest rates but proper interest rates there are no interest rates in japan germany or the united states some countries have performed better than others someone will come out of this in better shape than others who will come out in worst shape the key of course is to figure out who he has not yet responded he's aware though that china is doing a better job than say japan he owns japanese stocks because they print money every day and invests in etfs if they're going to buy etfs he'll buy japanese etfs when there's an issue people look for a theory to solve it karl marx had a fantastic hypothesis and many people tested it for a long period these days though nobody wants to be a marxist but it was a fantastic theory now there's one called mmt or more money today that everyone adores it's a fantastic theory and will probably do something similar in the future marxism was a free lunch for everyone but it failed mmt was a simple response and people like simple answers the us government has made it permissible for the federal reserve the country's central bank to purchase other assets and should things become really bad they'll do whatever they can to save themselves they don't care about you your children or mine they worry about the next election he says and they show it by purchasing ibm ford or whatever they're gonna buy it's simply a fact take a look around the world we had a terrible situation in the world in 2008 because of too much debt global debt has risen dramatically since 2008.
because the debt is so much worse than in 2008 the next time we have a problem has to be the worst in our lifetime remember what happened in 2008 the next bear market is gonna be worse than that and that is merely a casual observation there's a saying in the world of commodities that the solution for high prices is high prices since high prices reduce demand and increase supply that's exactly what has occurred the other half of the adage is that low prices are the remedy for low prices when prices are low for an extended period of time individuals buy more and stop producing these cycles have been going on for hundreds if not thousands of years and will continue to do so prices have been rising we've had a high oil price and diminishing reserves of oil everywhere norm reserves were dwindling people would offer you money if you could spell fracking before modern technology came along a bubble then formed and we all knew we had to make money these guys have to pay their bills as with all bubbles the fracking bubble collapsed and burst fracking is still going on but you have to make money except for fracking known oil reserves continue to diminish and fracking is no longer a bubble in terms of commodities we experienced a significant boom oil went from nothing to 150 dollars per barrel and it's now back to what it was we had booms and many commodities have experienced booms since then many commodities have risen and fallen in value all throughout the world bonds are in a bubble many equities are beginning to build bubbles but not all stocks as many companies are still declining commodities on the other hand are the only types of asset that are still inexpensive silver has fallen 45 percent from its all-time high sugar is falling 70 to 80 percent from its all-time high oil has fallen more than 50 percent from its all-time high making commodities the only asset sector that remain inexpensive fundamentals are shifting now more people in america study public relations and agriculture obviously if the world changes you must adjust with it that is fairly straightforward he says by the way if you've made it this far into the video do give us a like and subscribe to the channel for more content like this now let's get back to the video energy remains as the most crucial commodity in singapore everyone still drives or takes the bus to work and practically all energy is derived from oil and natural gas that could be changing even if you consider electric cars which appear to be on the horizon you must first generate the electricity which must come from a source such as solar or wind power however electric automobiles consume five times as much copper as ordinary cars so while demand for oil may fall demand for copper lead lithium and other commodities will rise this year jim rogers has not sold anything and he has not sold anything short he doesn't believe this is over there are few central bankers in the world who understand what they're doing india had had one of the best but it's no longer there there haven't been many brilliant central bankers in history so we shouldn't expect them to know what they're doing throughout history they've printed a lot of money and purchased assets all across the world this has resulted in inflation they keep telling us that there will be no inflation they simply don't know what they're doing there will be more inflation he says silver and gold have historically been popular strategies to hedge against inflation and jim doesn't believe the party is done yet all of these guys will continue to print money and when things get bad the markets will fall for a bit they are going to panic and they'll print even more money they don't want to be laid off they will go to any length to maintain their employment it's bad for you for me and it's bad for the globe but they don't care about us they care about their jobs when things start to fall apart they'll print more money and we'll have a big rally that will most likely be the last one throughout history it has always resulted in an asset bubble what's the deal with that because when products become extremely overpriced a large number of new people flood into markets and experienced people become happy and joyful and then the bubble bursts as it always does and many people lose a lot of money it will eventually pop many people will suffer as a result of this looking back at markets in the last phase whether it's the last six months or the last few months some very bizarre events have occurred when you look back at the end of the 1990s nasdaq doubled in six months and it's always been that way when they see things going up people become really excited and exuberant they don't want to miss out on it they want to dive right in in america you have some pretty wild and crazy moves it's also known as a blow-off you know the market blows up and when it goes up so quickly and you would expect that to happen again it will very certainly happen again when they begin creating money and that's what jim rogers had to say regarding his last warning what are your thoughts on this let us know in the comment section down below and as always do click that like and subscribe button for more content like this see you in the next video
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