Bill Gross 14 June 2017 No doubt FED's statement was hawkish

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Bill Gross는 6월 FOMC 발표를 매파적(hawkish)이라고 평가하면서도 시장이 이를 과소 반영한다고 봄. 점도표가 1년 반~2년 내 금리 인상 4회(연준기금금리 약 2.25~2.5% 수준)를 시사하고, 연간 약 500억 달러 규모의 국채 매도(양적긴축) 계획이 제시된 점을 근거로 듦. 연준 자체 연구에서 양적완화가 10년물 금리를 약 100bp 낮췄다는 점을 짚으며, 그 효과가 사라지면 10년물 금리가 연준 기금금리 전망치보다 낮은 2.1%에 머무는 것이 이상하다고 지적. 10년물 4%면 30년 모기지 금리가 150~200bp 오르고 주택시장에 부정적이라고 함. 명목 GDP 4% 이하, 인플레이션 2% 이하인 현재 여건에서 연준 기금금리는 장기적으로 1.5~1.75%를 넘기 어렵다고 봄. 따라서 연준이 점도표와 국채 매도 계획을 끝까지 이행하기 어렵다는 입장. 시장 참여자들이 이 점을 인식해야 한다고 강조. 금리 관련 단기 방향 예측은 점도표 대비 '상승 제한' 중심 장기 견해로 보며, 특정 자산 매매 추천은 없음. 자막 일부가 중복·반복되어 있어 원문 전체 맥락은 부분적으로만 확인됨.

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01. well I'm not yawning um I recognize that the Market's yaw well I'm not yawning um I recognize that the Market's yawning but um what we've heard today in terms of the um you know the dots uh which suggest four increases over the next uh year and a half to uh perhaps two and a quarter or two and a half percent and what we've heard in terms of the you know the sell back into the uh treasury market of ultimately $50 billion a month I mean they're very bearish let me just point out one thing that Market should know Brian the market should know that the Federal Reserve itself had a study just this month that the quantitative easing over a period of time lowered 10year treasury rates by close to 100 basis points so you know if at some point in 2018 or 19 um you know a lot of that is gone then the 10year treasury at 210 below the FED funds rate projected by the FED U at the end of 2018 where has it to go in terms of low interest rates I I think it's a it's a hawkish statement No Doubt okay then is this an economy or a financial Market or both bill that could withstand call it 25% fed funds and a 4% tenure oh that's the key uh the 4% tenure immediately brings to mind where mortgage rates 30-year mortgage rates would be and now we're talking about certainly an increase of 150 to 200 basis points and negative for the housing market and ultimately we're talking about as the FED Ponders as well what the neutral fed funds interest rate is in this type of environment where inflation is at slightly below 2% and doesn't seem to be rising I would think that uh the FED funds rate can go no higher uh than 1 and a half to uh 1 and 3/4% over time given these current conditions given nominal GDP at 4% or less given inflation at 2% or less and so yeah uh I I I think that the FED can't follow through with their dot plan and I think that the FED can't follow through with what they're suggesting in terms of the uh sell backs on the treasury market but uh ultimately um that's their plan and I think the market should begin to to take notice of that at a 210 Treasury treasury at 210 below the FED funds rate projected by the FED U at the end of 2018 where has it to go in terms of lower interest rates I I think it's a it's a hawkish statement No Doubt okay then is this an economy or a financial Market or both bill that could withstand call it 25% fed funds and a 4% tene oh that's the key uh the 4% tenure immediately brings to mind where mortgage rates 30-year mortgage rates would be and now we're talking about certainly an increase of 150 to 200 basis points so negative for the housing market and ultimately we're talking about as the FED Ponders as well what the neutral fed funds interest rate is in this type of environment where inflation is at slightly below 2% and doesn't seem to be rising I would think that uh the FED funds rate can go no higher uh than 1 and a half to uh 1 and 3/4% over time given these current conditions given nominal GDP at 4% or less given inflation at 2% or less and so yeah um I I I think that the FED can't follow through with their dot plan and I think $50 billion a month I mean they're very bearish let me just point out one thing that the market should know Brian the market should know that the Federal Reserve itself had a study just this month that the quantitative easing over period of time lowered 10year treasury rates by close to 100 basis points so you know if at some point in 2018 or 19 um you know a lot of that is gone then the 10e well I'm not yawning um I recognize that the Market's yawn well I'm not yawning um I recognize that the Market's yawning but um what we've heard today in terms of the um you know the dots uh which suggest four increases over the next uh year and a half to uh perhaps 2 and a quar or 2 and half% % and what we've heard in terms of the you know the sell back into the uh treasury market of ultimate