저자: JeffreyGundlach · 외국인
요약 보기
Gundlach는 인플레이션의 계절성 패턴으로 근원 헤드라인 물가 하락 모멘텀이 있어 연준의 금리 인하가 지지된다고 봄. 연준이 시장 예상보다 더 많이 인하할 것으로 보며 향후 약 150bp 인하를 예상. 반면 고용 지표(퇴직률 하락, 실업률·실업수당 청구 증가, 파트타이머 증가, 정부 고용 착시)를 근거로 경기는 생각보다 강하지 않으며 2024년 9월을 이미 경기침체 시점으로 볼 것이라 주장.
다듬은 글
and we still have Jeffrey gunlock obviously with us and Jeffrey I hope you'll oblige us here you know Steve has what I think is a a good question for you um as you talk about the yield curve still being inverted Steve you want to ask Jeffrey what I know is on your mind well the reason why it's on my mind because I just talked about this idea jeff which I'm sure is on your mind this idea of steadily uh steady rate cuts on the short end Jeff how does the curve or does the Curve disin in that process well I think short rates fall uh twoyear treasury rates fall threeyear treasure rates fall fiveyear treasure rates fall and the further you go out the curve the the less they're going to fall I thought Steve's question to Jay was really good it actually jogged my my thinking about how much room he has to cut because Steve asked is it one cut or is a normalization process and it I don't know if Jay kept that question in in his mind is he Contin after Steve's question but he seemed to if I try to read the tea leaves it seems to me that J PA's answer was normalizing I think he knows that the path of inflation is likely lower in the near term one thing that um he did speak to was the seasonality of inflation and I think that's a bigger Point than most people appreciate the first quarter even though these numbers are seasonally adjusted and Jay pointed that out even though it's seasonally adjusted there's this bizarre pattern that is quite strongly in place for multiple years that the first quarter comes out hot and then the second half of the year comes out cool and so we have a couple of pce headline numbers not the one coming up but the two after that the ones that are rolling off are 04 it seems unlikely to me that you're going to get point4 replacing them so we still have downward momentum likely on that headline inflation and it's further supported by The Uncanny uh seasonals that seem to be in place that the fourth quarter inflation is less than the uh the first quarter and certainly the second half is less than the first half so these are further things that support the notion of cutting interest rates um Jay's right to say we don't know what the data is going to be just like I I loved his answer when he said I don't know he's going to win the the uh election it would be ridiculous to try to factor one one party's policies versus another you don't even know who's going to win but I do think that uh the these things seasonality of inflation is is important and will be further support of of the FED cutting rates I expect the FED is going to cut rates in line with what the market is predicting and if I had to take an Under and Over I would think the FED is going to cut rates more than the market thinks uh over the next I I think we have 150 basis points of cuts coming uh but certainly by a year from now it's interesting the FED hasn't touched the FED funds rate over the past year you know and and markets since the last fed meeting are virtually unchanged there's almost no changes anywhere so the market seems to have settled in and is waiting for the cutting cycle to begin and I think they're going to get rewarded with that interesting uh Steve lean thank you as always of course uh for joining us after after leaving the room uh with the Fed chair so you know Jeffrey you've been pretty explicit as well in in calling for a recession uh every time we've been speaking and having these conversations the Fed chair today as you alluded to earlier said he thinks we're well positioned he likes where we are uh the chances of a hard Landing he said quote I think they're low has your own view changed no I I have the same view I I think when we uh look at back at what you know today and it'll be history when we look back at it a couple years for now I kind of believe that we will say that we were in a recession in September of 2024 interesting um because I mean he still thinks that the economy obviously is doing pretty well yes there are some spots of weakness said the Fed chair but overall uh is is good you you take issue with that too based on what what what you've been hearing from CEOs about the consumer I think it has to do with a lot of anecdotal evidence and a lot of the if you if you just don't look at um one data point like the estab like the establishment unemployment rate survey there's a lot of things around that are not nearly as encouraging the the I I talked about the quits rate is is is way is is way down even Leisure and Hospitality the unemployment rate is rising unemployment claims are rising temporary the the the full-time employment is being supplemented by part-time employment some people are working a full-time job and a part-time job they're counted as two jobs but that's just one person who's trying to keep up keep you know keep their head above the inflation uh Waters so I I think I don't know I I just feel that I hear a lot of people anecdotally that talk about I lost my job I can't find a new one there one guy I know they're just anecdotes but I lost I was working at the in the same industry for 10 years and my company had to close down I lost my job and I I'm I'm applying every week sometimes two jobs a week and nobody hires me I can't get a job that's starting to happen so you know employment is a lagging indicator everybody knows that but the employment the trend employment has already changed for the worse so and and it's masked I'll say it one more time the government hiring is a little bit curious if you want to make your data better you you can manipulate it by having your area of the economy do some extra hiring and that appears to be what's happening government unemp employment was on a downtrend flattened out and now it's been rising so I I don't I don't think the econom is that strong as SC
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