저자: BillGross · 외국인
요약 보기
Fed가 금리를 동결했고, 성명에 추가된 'symmetric(대칭적)' 표현은 인플레이션 2%가 상한이 아니라 목표치이며 2.1~2.2%도 큰 문제가 아니라는 의미로 해석된다. 금리 및 인플레이션 전망: 6월 금리 인상 한 번은 예상하지만 그 이후 연속 인상은 보지 않는다. 미국 경제는 하반기에 강해질 수 있고, 약달러와 감세·재정적자가 인플레이션을 0.1~0.2%p 높일 수 있다고 봤다. 달러 및 신흥국: 달러는 최근 몇 년간 하락했지만 최근 3~4% 반등했다. 유럽(ECB)과 일본(BOJ)이 완화 기조를 유지하면 달러 강세가 이어져 달러 표시 부채가 많은 신흥국에 부담이 될 수 있다고 경고했다. 투자 전략: 현금(단기 금리 약 1~1.5%, 3개월 LIBOR 약 2.35%)을 단기 안전처로 제시했다. 채권은 올해 들어 약 2~2.5% 하락했고 주식은 횡보 중이다. 10년물 금리는 2.80~3.10~3.15% 사이에서 등락할 것으로 예상했다. 국채 공급: 재무부 발행 확대가 금리 상승 요인이며, 과거에는 공급과 금리의 상관이 약했지만 이번에는 상관관계가 커질 것으로 봤다. 미국 국채는 '깨어 있지만 으르렁거리지 않는' 약한 하락장으로 본다.
다듬은 글
we know that there is no rate increase as expected the Fed did drop a lying thing it's monitoring inflation developments closely it also said it's also adding this new word symmetric talk to us about what that means because the fact that it added this new word in a statement that was meant to kind of signal everything is as is it seems meaningful well I think it is the most meaningful word in the statement is sort of like the old Groucho Marx show or the magic duck comes down when you say the word nickel 50 bucks so that's it you picked it you got we wanted $50 but what it means basically is that if inflation having hit 2% and their target goes to 2.1 or 2.2 that it doesn't cause them unnecessary concern and may go back down to 1/9 or 1/8 it sort of gravitates around 2% but let me point this out for those that think this is something startling and something new that you know Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen acknowledged that 2% was not a cap that 2% was always going to be a target around which you know inflation would presumably circulate so it's new for the last 6 12 months but it's certainly not groundbreaking and doesn't deserve $50 from the magic duck but we did have a debate after the last Fed bell when we were talking about just how sensitive they are and whether they have a greater sensitivity to an overshoot to the topside relative to the downside are we saying here actually that as you just pointed out 2.2 means the same as 1.8 in this currently scenario well it it does suggest and in the statement said that they will monitor an a meeting to mean a meeting basis or an economic number that may change one month or another they will monitor it on a short-term basis but you know it basically means that with the rest of the world in a low inflationary environment actually the the EU can't get out of the one to one-and-a-half percent zone themselves probably because their currencies been so strong but you know a two point one or a two point two probably doesn't matter on the other hand as a as a caveat let me just mention that you know there are forces in the US economy mainly a weak dollar with the exception of the past few weeks over the past month that may force inflation of 0.1 or 0.2 higher on a 12 to 24 month type of basis we have a real economy that probably will be stronger in the second half based upon you know a near trillion dollar deficit and that the Trump programs of corporate tax cuts and so yeah there are arguments for both sides but I think perhaps 2% is certainly not a cap for the Fed and that's what the market is interpreting today you know I'm glad you mentioned the US dollar here as well because the last time we spoke to you said look you can't get above a 2% Fed Funds rate in a 2% inflationary world because then you start to see the dollar pick up that causes a problem for e/m it might force the hand here of the ECB the European Central Bank as well what do you make of the the pick up the rally that we've seen in the US dollar and do you think we can see that rally further as we push throughout q2 and q3 here well it has been surprising to most it's actually only a three or four percent increase but it had been going down for you know several years and I think it it went up you know basically because the market anticipated the Fed would be much tighter than the ECB or the the BOJ and and certainly what we've seen over the past few months and from Draghi and from Kuroda would suggest that however if if if the Fed moves significantly higher and I only expect a June rate hike by the way I don't expect two or three or four or five or six you know going forward I simply don't think they can do if Draghi and Kuroda and others basically maintain their excessively easy monetary posture that'll force the dollar higher that'll put emerging market countries with dollar denominated dead in jeopardy and could you know disrupt the rather fragile financial balance on a global basis so what is an investor to do bill where where do you see value we spoke earlier with black rocks Jeff Rosenberg he sees value on the front end of the yield curve what do you do how do you position yourself through the rest of 2018 well I think I think there's value in cash and and that that's a stretch of course because you know cash for most investors and money market funds and so on is still you know probably on the one to one-and-a-half percent category but three-month LIBOR is at 235 and you know corporate short term rates are around two and a half percent is that of value it probably just keeps you a pace with inflation but it certainly doesn't go down you know the bond market itself Oh in the past four or five months in 2018 is basically down about two to two-and-a-half percent and stocks who knows on a daily basis but they're flatlining too so it is it a value I think it's a safe short-term haven until we see how things shake out we've also seen the Treasury announced a significant further ramp up in issuance of where only the yield curve ultimately that's going to set and we've obviously for the last decade seen very little correlation between supply and yields right now do you see q1 and the explosion of supply that we saw in that the sort of rally the ramp up in yields is an anomaly a coincidence or do you think that correlation has changed as we push throughout the year no I think it should be correlated they don't see it exactly in terms of what investors anticipate from the standpoint of supply I mean we know for instance that the Fed is undergoing quantitative tightening you know perhaps taking or adding 30 or 40 billion to the market for other outside investors to buy we know that the Treasury itself you know is adding to of twos and fives tens and 30s probably at a billion dollars of you know an auction is that significant well it's certainly different and we know it may even go higher based upon the potential deficits going forward so in my invite view you know supply from the Treasury is a factor in addition to what the Fed might do and in terms of a mild bearish tone for us US bonds US Treasury bonds I would expect the ten-year for instance now at what 295 to basically meander around 280 to perhaps 310 or 315 for the balance of the year but not not much of a change it's a it's a hibernating bear market which means that the bear is awake but not really growling
Comments 0