저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
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결론: 인플레이션 악순환이 당분간 멈추기 어렵고 연준의 과잉 통화정책이 원인이라는 비관적 견해. 연준 책임론: 연준은 지난 4년간 소비와 자산 버블을 부추기는 통화정책을 펴 왔으며, 2003~2007년 주택시장 버블과 2008년 이후 QE 확대가 그 예다. 양적완화는 한번 시작하면 중단이 매우 어렵다는 점을 지적했다. 향후 금리 전망: 연준이 금리를 약 50bp 인상하고, 이후 6~9개월 동안 1%p 안팎(또는 1.25%p)까지 올릴 수 있다고 봤다. 주택담보대출 금리는 18개월 전 저점 대비 거의 두 배가 됐다. 인플레이션 구조: 이는 일시적이 아니라 장기적이고 공격적인 금리 상승 추세로, 40년 만에 보지 못한 환경이라는 진행자 질문에 동의했다. 정책 요인: ESG 정책과 러시아산 에너지 제재가 비용을 높이고, 태양광·풍력 중심 에너지 전환은 비용 부담이 크다고 비판했다. 원자력은 기피되고 있다고 언급했다. 결론적 평가: 연준은 인플레이션과 버블의 방화범이며, 위기 때 나서서 상황이 더 나빠지지 않았다고 주장한다고 비판했다. 연준과 다른 중앙은행은 범죄 조직과 같다는 강한 표현을 썼다. 종목 언급: 없음.
다듬은 글
and we also want to bring in today's special guest economist mark faber he's also the publisher of the gloom boom and doom newsletter which you can get by going to gloomboomdoom.com mark thanks so much for being back with us on the income generation well thank you very much for having me on your program mark lately we've seen people in the grocery stores here in america doing the head shake and they're shaking their head looking at how prices have rose so rapidly in this rapid inflationary environment that we have and we know the fed has poured gasoline on the fire of inflation as the form of accelerant so they are really a lot to blame here with this inflationary issue but where do you see inflation going from a consumer perspective can prices just keep rising in this environment well that depends very much on fiscal policies and as you hinted that it will depend mostly on the federal reserve but you understand the federal reserve has abused its power for the last four years for the last four years they have pursued monetary policies that encourage consumption and that encourage asset bubbles and we have evidence of that they created an asset bubble with the housing market between 2003 and 2007 and then after the great financial crisis they started in december 2008 with qe1 at the time i was asked when that would end and i said this is not qe1 it's qe infinity because once you embark on money printing it's very tough to abandon to stop printing money unless you are prepared to take a significant recession and this is now where we are today the fed in my opinion will increase interest rates maybe 50 basis points and over the next six to nine months maybe do one percent maybe one one quarter but then things could get so bad in the asset markets because as you know mortgage rates have almost doubled from the lows that we had 18 months ago so so this trend that we have of rising inflation and rising rates then is not really transitory in a short-term sense you're saying there's going to be a longer trend and a more aggressive trend towards a rising rate environment unlike anything we've seen in 40 years that's what i hear you saying mark is that what you're saying i'm saying we're headed into an inflationary spiral that is unstoppable for the time being also because of the stupidity of government officials you have to see this esg environment social and governance issue that increases the price of everything and if you have embargoes against russian oil russian resources and so forth and so on you can become of course you can become energy independent we can all have uh solar panels on the roof and windmills in the gardens and on hollywood boulevard we can have some wind mills as well but the cost is incredible and what is cost efficient nuclear power they don't want that they don't want right well you bring up all these great points but the world thinks the fed is the financial savior of every financial crisis and it sounds like they may have outdone themselves here since technically they aren't a law abiding institution they've got a blank check and they can do whatever they want and so you're saying that the chickens are coming home to roost then i guess is what you're saying basically what i'm saying is the federal reserve is the arsonist they put on the inflationary fires they put on bubbles they create bubbles and then when everything collapses they come in and says look because of us it's not worse than it already is that's what the fed does the fed and other central banks are criminal organizations mark fober jeff small again great being with both of you thank you so much for being here
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