저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 연준이 이미 경기침체에 진입했지만 이를 인정하지 않고 있으며, 인플레이션 주도의 가짜 성장이 걷히면 금리 인하 국면으로 이어질 것이라는 주장. 유가: 장 마감 후에도 강세를 보이며 차트가 매우 강하다고 판단. 배럴당 130달러 고점 돌파 후 140~150달러까지 상승 가능, 다음 조정 전까지 상승 여력이 있다고 봄. 조정이 오더라도 강세장 내 조정일 가능성이 높다고 언급. 연준과 경기침체: 시장은 현재 금리 인상을 가격에 반영하고 있으나, 투자자들이 인상 이후 인하를 바라보기 시작하는지가 관전 포인트라고 주장. 연준이 경기침체를 사전에 예측한 사례는 없으며, 2008년 대침체 때도 이미 6개월이 지난 뒤에야 연준은 경기침체를 인지하지 못했다고 설명. 과거 사례 비판: 버냉키는 2007~2008년 경제가 매우 강하다고 보았고, 옐런은 주택가격 하락이 경제에 영향을 주지 않을 것이라 판단했음. 발언자는 이들이 강세로 본 것이 실제로는 주택 버블과 인위적 저금리·주택담보 인출에 기댄 허상이었다고 비판. 현재 경제 평가: 강한 고용시장과 성장은 연준이 만든 인플레이션의 산물이며, 실질적으로는 약한 경제에 높은 인플레이션이 겹친 상태라고 주장. 인플레이션을 유발하는 것은 인쇄·차입 기반 지출이며, 무역적자와 재정적자가 그 원천이라고 지적. 리스크: 지금 경제를 떠받치는 것은 연준의 완화적 지원인데, 연준이 이를 걷어내려 하고 있어 경기 하방 리스크가 크다고 경고. 출연자 전망: 연준의 긴축이 경기 둔화와 이후 금리 인하로 이어질 것이라는 견해. 유가는 단기 강세 전망.
다듬은 글
we actually were about a dollar lower about a half hour ago before i started recording this is all after the close of the u.s stock market so we've had some late day volatility in the oil price but to me as i mentioned on the last podcast the chart looks incredibly strong for oil i think we are about to break out and challenge the high that we spiked up to which was around 130 dollars a barrel i think we can easily take that high out and power forward to 140 150 a barrel before we have the next correction but any correction that we have is likely going to be a correction in a bull market but what i am looking for in these markets is any kind of indication that investors are starting to look beyond this inflation fight to the recession fight in other words look past the rate hikes that the market is currently pricing in to the rate cuts that are likely to follow because what the fed is doing is either going to push the economy into recession or it already has succeeded in pushing the economy into recession it's just that nobody has acknowledged this and again i pointed this out on the podcast before but i've never seen an example of a recession that the fed forecasts in advance in fact even in the great recession of 2008 we were at least six months into that recession and as far as the federal reserve was concerned it was smooth sailing there was no recession anywhere in sight even though we were in the midst of the worst recession since the great depression now this recession could easily be much worse than that one but it doesn't surprise me that if we're already in it the fed still has no clue because it's always looking in the rear view mirror for confirmation of a recession and it has its own bias as to how strong it thinks the economy is after all ben bernanke felt the economy was really strong in 2007-2008 that's one of the reasons that he thought it was impervious to the problems both in subprime and in the housing market janet yellen who was at the fed at the time made the same mistake she was not worried about the housing market and said that even if she was wrong and housing prices went down it wouldn't impact the economy because we had such a strong economy that it didn't matter what happened to housing prices what janet yellen didn't understand was what she perceived as strength was in fact a bubble the economy wasn't strong it was actually weak there was weakness that was masquerading as strength because the strength was a function of a housing bubble and that housing bubble was unsustainable and the spending that was powering the economy was associated with artificially low interest rates and home equity extractions and the wealth effect of rising home prices and all of that went away very quickly and so whatever strength the fed believed existed in the market vanished very quickly and what they were left with was a great recession well powell and everybody else are making similar mistakes now with respect to the perception of this super strong economy with this red-hot labor market all of that strength is a function of the inflation that they created they acknowledge that there's inflation now finally and they want to fight it but what they don't acknowledge is whatever growth they think the u.s economy is experiencing is in fact inflation so we don't have a strong economy we have a weak economy we just have an economy with high inflation and what's driving that high inflation is the spending of printed money of borrowed money and when the fed is looking at the economy and jumping to the conclusion that it's strong all it's looking at is spending and confusing spending with economic strength without realizing that the spending is a function of inflation and it is revealing the underlying weakness in the economy especially if the fed paid more attention to the trade deficits and the budget deficits and saw that the source of this phony strength lied in those huge deficits and those deficits were also a function of the cheap money in artificially low interest rates that the fed is now threatening to take away under the false assumption that the economy is so strong that it doesn't need that support when in reality the only thing keeping the economy propped up is the very support that the fed is threatening to remove
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