저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
짐 로저스는 향후 심각한 경기침체가 올 가능성이 높다고 보며 투자자는 자신이 잘 아는 것에만 투자해야 한다고 강조한다. 경기 전망: 심각한 침체가 가까운 시일 내 올 것이라 확신하며, 침체 시 손실이 클 수 있어 대비가 필요하다고 봄. 휘발유 가격이 갤런당 5달러 가까이 올라 소비자 지출이 위축되고 있음을 근거로 듦. 연준 및 중앙은행 비판: 재닛 옐런의 러시아 석유 수출 관련 발언(러시아가 석유 수출을 멈추지 않으면 경기침체가 없을 것이라는 취지)을 황당하다고 평가하며 연준 인사들의 판단력을 비판함. 주식시장 전망: 현재 비관론이 크게 퍼져 있어 우크라이나 평화 등 계기가 생기면 큰 랠리가 나올 수 있다고 봄. 그 랠리가 마지막 랠리가 될 것이며, 그 경우 매도(공매도 포함 언급)를 시작할 것이라고 밝힘. 아직 매도하지 않았다고 함. 중앙은행 정책 구조: 시장은 연준 및 글로벌 중앙은행의 금리인하·마이너스 금리·통화 발행에 의존해 주가가 지탱되고 있으며, 이는 피라미드나 폰지 구조와 같다고 비유함. 그러나 무한정 돈을 찍는 방식은 통하지 않을 것이며, 확산되면 인플레이션이 매우 심각해지고 통화시장이 붕괴하며 금리가 급등할 것이라고 경고함. 투자 원칙: 청취자는 누구의 말이든 맹신하지 말고 본인이 잘 아는 자산에 투자해야 하며, 이해 없이 투자하면 하락 시 대응할 수 없다고 강조함. 예측 종합: 단기 급락 전 일시 반등 가능성, 이후 침체와 인플레이션 우려. 구체 가격 목표는 제시하지 않음.
다듬은 글
we also have today's special guest jim rogers jim is chairman of rogers holdings and beyland trust incorporated he's also a very popular financial commentator jim great to have you back here on the income generation david i'm delighted to be here but david i'm just a simple person we don't need much introduction life is like a box of chocolates i get it jim yes exactly all right so let's let the fun begin jim so listen let me tell you what i'm dealing with lately i'm dealing with consumers whose minds are poisoned and terrified of the oncoming hurricane or storm a la a financial recession so you're your predictions from january that we discussed and forward are fastly materializing so what what should investors brace for what should they do today going forward because we really want to focus on them because that's what's important today jim well first of all jeff people should only invest in what they themselves know a lot about they shouldn't listen to me or anybody else stay with what you know if you want to be successful if you listen to me and something works you don't know what to do you don't know why you bought it if it goes down you don't know what to do because you don't know why you bought it so please stay with what you know i am convinced we're going to have a very serious recession in the foreseeable future and if we do you better know what you're doing because it's going to be bad you know i heard something really bizarre yesterday jim janet yellen in a congressional testimony signified to russia that as long as they don't stop their oil exports the globe won't go into a recession and i just about fell off my chair when she said that and i reflect back to an earlier showing we had this year in january where you said the people at the fed uh to put it politely weren't very smart i think that was validated i couldn't believe she did that what do you think what can i say she's got two degrees from fancy ivy league universities but please i know that doesn't mean anything and she has proved over and over again but they all have they all prove many times they don't know what they're doing and the problem is jeff you and i are the ones who have to pay for it and everybody watching this show oh we're paying for it all right gas is just a penny below five dollars a gallon and people are starting to shut down here economically that's a threshold for most average consumers here and they're saying wait a minute now we can't spend money on everything and anything gas is just too expensive and another serious concern is everything we're hearing in the media gym is about the next leg down in the market that this is just a false bear market rally and so what's your thesis going forward jim i know it's really hard to consult the crystal ball and everything's based on statistics and educated guesses here but you've got so much history and knowledge tell us what your thesis is going forward on where we see the next leg down or will the market trend up from here yeah i make plenty of mistakes i make many mistakes we could do a weaker show about my mistakes so don't think i know what i'm doing but i will say there's a lot of pessimism around right now huge amounts of pessimism that often leads to a big rally if something happens such as peace in ukraine or who knows what it could lead to a huge rally in my view that would be the last rally and i hope i am not so short yet i have not sold yet but if that happens then i would probably start selling and selling shore the market is really co-dependent on the fed and the central banks globally continually propping up stock values by lowering rates going negative or printing up more money and i see it just as a repetitive cycle i mean it really just is paper they're never going to pay the principal back on that they can hit the delete button and it all disappears and nobody would care so the whole thing is based on maybe a pyramid you could say or even a ponzi scheme well i wish it was that easy jeff we just all print money all day long you know the bank of japan guy goes to work and he says he prints his word unlimited amounts of money if that's all it's going to take hooray hooray hooray won't it be wonderful none of us ever have to work again we never have to work we just have to print print money it's not that easy and it's not going to be that easy this time around if they do just spread money inflation is going to get very very serious the currency markets are going to cave in and interest rates are going to go through the roof we'll have to have you back soon to get your play-by-play on how things are coming along and don't ever forget life is like a box of chocolates jeff small jim rogers thank you both for being here with us today on the income generation i love being on with you guys let's do it again thank you jim
Comments 0