저자: 워런버핏 · 외국인
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버핏·멍거의 장기투자 원칙과 종목·자산 평가 관점을 정리한 영상이다. 주요 주장은 소비재 기업의 브랜드·고객 충성도를 보고 장기 투자 대상을 고른다는 것이다. 아메리칸익스프레스는 다이너스클럽보다 높은 가격에 프리미엄 이미지를 구축해 성공했고, 코카콜라는 1886년 이후 '진짜'로서 지속 우위를 유지해 왔다고 평가했다. 이는 소비자 체감과 브랜드 파워의 사례로 제시됐다. 주식 선택 방법으로 버핏은 소비재 제품이 다양한 상황에서 어떻게 반응하는지 현장에서 확인하는 방식(현장 조사, 채널 체크)을 강조했다. 필립 피셔의 『Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits』도 언급했다. 코스트코에 대해서는 멍거가 계속 새로운 장점을 발견하고 있으며, 고객을 기쁘게 하고 놀라게 하는 기업이라고 칭찬했다. 애플에 대해서는 아이폰 중심의 생태계를 기반으로 한 투자가 뛰어나다고 보지만 틀릴 수도 있다고 덧붙였다. 암호화폐에 대해서는 생산성이 없는 자산이며 가치가 이어질 것이라는 기대에만 기대는 버블이라고 평가했다. 멍거는 더 강하게 비판하며 전문 트레이더들의 암호화폐 거래를 혐오스럽다고 표현했다. 신문산업에 대해서는 종이 신문 발행부수와 광고 매출이 계속 감소하고 있으며, 디지털 전환이 충분히 이를 대체하지 못한다고 진단했다. 버크셔의 경제적 영향은 미미하지만 사회적 영향은 크다고 강조했다. 전체적으로 이 영상은 특정 종목에 대한 구체적 가격 목표나 단기 방향성 예측을 제시하지 않으며, 장기 투자 철학과 과거 사례 중심의 발언이다.
다듬은 글
and frankly if you were a salesperson out with somebody and you could pull out that American Express card with that Centurion you looked like it were JP Morgan and if you pull out the Diners Club it had a whole bunch of flashy signals you look like a guy that was kiting his checks from one month to the next Charlie's done it with Costco I mean he's he's he is I mean all the time he is finding new virtues in Costco you know uh and and he's right incidentally I mean Costco hasn't enormous appeal to its constituency it uh you know they they Delight they surprise and Delight their customers and there is nothing like that in business you have delighted customers you're a long way home our question for you is how you go about attempting to forecast the degree of future s success of one specific product in a good business versus another another such that you invest in American Express and Coca-Cola rather than Diners Club or RC Cola for example thanks well with American Express it was was an interesting situation because Diner Club got there first I think American Express in a certain sense I mean they did it for a lot of reasons but they went into the credit card business uh uh uh because they were worried about what was going to happen to Travelers checks uh and although traveler checks are still exist in a significant way but the interesting thing when American Express went into competition with Diner club and with cart blanches I remember that was also existed at the time was that instead of charging less than Diner club and going in figuring they were going against established guy and they'd come in at a lower price they went into at a higher prices I remember and the American Express Centurion was on that card I've got one that I got in 1964 but they were in up before that it uh it it had more value in time I mean it it it got better representation and frankly if you were a salesperson out with somebody and you could pull out that American Express card with that Centurion you look like it were JP Morgan if pulled out the Diners Club had a whole bunch of flashy signals you look like a guy that was kiting his checks from one month to the next and fell fellow named Ralph Schneider and Ralph Schneider and Al Bloomingdale developed the ners club and they were very smart about getting there first but they weren't smart about out the merchandise it subsequently uh RC Cola and Know It uh it it did there all kinds of colos that came after Coke I mean you know you go back to 1886 and come up with something at Jacob's Pharmacy that's incredibly successful you know fairly soon you're going to get lots of imitators but Coke really is the real thing and uh you know you uh you offer me RC Cola and say I'll give it to you at half the price of Coca-Cola in terms of drinking it I mean this this is a product that's six and a 6 and2 ounces sold for a nickel and 1900 you know and now if you buy it on the weekend and buy it in large quantities everything you're not paying that much more this newspaper was three cents in 1942 the the amount of enjoyment per per real in terms of the real uh of what you pay for this has gone dramatically down in inflation adjusted money so it's it is a bargain product uh no you you have to look at se's candy you know if you live in California and you were you were a teenage boy and you went to your girlfriend's house and you gave the box of candy to her to her mother or father and she kissed you you know you lose price sensitivity at that point that's um so we really want products where people feel like kissing you you know rather than slapping you it's it's um it's it's an interesting thing I mean you know in effect we're we're betting on the ecosystem of of Apple products but led by the iPhone and and I see characteristics in that that make me think that that it's extraordinary but I may be wrong and you know so far we've been I would say we've been r on American Express and and Coca-Cola American Express had this huge solid oil scandal in 1960 happened in no 63 November right around the time Kennedy was shot and uh uh there was really worry about what the company would survive but nobody quit using the the car nobody quit using the traveler checks and they charged a premium price for their traveler shck so there are things you can see around consumer products that sometime can give you a pretty good insight into the future and then sometimes we make mistakes Charlie I got nothing to add except that if we'd been offered a chance to go into Coca-Cola right after it was invented we we probably would have said we turn to them yeah it would have looked kind of silly to us well unless we drank it now Charlie listen no he's right I mean we don't we don't foresee things that we haven't got a lot of evidence in on I mean we and and no we we we we want to see a lot of if we're talking about a consumer product we want to see how a consumer product behaves under a lot of different circumstances and then uh we want to use something actually there was a book by phel Fisher written around 1960 called Common Stocks and uncommon profits is one of the great books on investing and uh uh it talks about the Scuttle but of investing which was quite a ways from what Ben Graham taught me in terms of figures but it's a very very good book and you can learn a lot you know just by by going out and using some shoe leather now they they call them Channel checks now or something like that but it's you can get a feel for some products and then there are others you can't and then sometimes you're wrong but but it is it is a good technique uh it's an important investing technique I would say that and and Ted and Todd do a lot of that and they have people some people that help him out on doing it too Charlie's done it with Costco I mean he's he's he is I mean all the time he is finding new virtues in Costco you know and and he's right incidentally I mean Costco has an enormous appeal to its constituency it uh you know they they Delight they surprise and Delight their customers and there is nothing like that in business you have delighted customers you're a long way home with them you always say you didn't go into too much detail to obtain an understanding on crypto currencies so what factors caused you to say that it's a bubble well generally nonproductive assets remain you know if you had bought gold at the time of of Christ and you figure the compound rate on it you know it's it maybe a couple tents of 1% uh the it's essentially is not going to deler anything other than supposed scarcity you know because they'll only you can only mind so many but so what I mean what ises what does it produce itself uh you know the check is a wonderful idea just imagine how the world would be without being able to write checks or have wire transfer of funds but it doesn't make the check intrinsically itself worth a lot of money and if you said you can't use something called check with a little piece of paper you do something else to transfer money I I think that anytime you buy a nonproductive asset uh you are counting on somebody else later on to buy a nonproductive asset because they think they can sell it to somebody for more money and it's been tried with tulips and it's been tried it's been tried with various things over time and it does come to a bad ending I'm having you have a hard time you can you can think of think of raw land I mean the Louisiana Purchase was say $15 million for $ 800,000 or so square miles of land in fact you're sitting on land that came with the Louisiana Purchase and and uh so what we pay we pay 20 bucks a square mile and uh you know 640 acres in square mile and you're down to three cents or something so that was a pretty good purchase of an what was then a nonproductive property but it depend but it's very hard you can buy stamps Bill gross got you know collected a wonderful stamp collection and it it sold for more money in the end but it's dependent on somebody else else wanting to buy hoping they will sell it for more money and so on and in the end you make your money out of productive assets if you buy a farm you you estimate what the crops what amount per acre of soybeans or corn or whatever may be raised and how much you have to pay the farmer that Farms it for you and what your taxes will be and various things and you make a conclusion based on what the asset itself will produce over time and that's an investment when you buy something because you're hoping tomorrow morning you're going to wake up you know and the price will be higher the only reason you know you need more people coming and do it than are leaving and and they uh and you can get that in it will feed on itself for a while and sometimes for a long while and sometimes to extraordinary numbers but in the end but they come to Bad Endings and cryptocurrencies will come to Bad Endings and along with the fact that there's nothing being produced in the way of value from the asset that that uh you also have the problem that it draws in a lot of charlatans and that sort of thing who are trying to create various sorts of exchanges or whatever it may be it you know it it's something where where people who are of less than St character see an opportunity to uh clip people who were trying to get rich because their neighbors getting rich by of stuff that neither one of them understands it will come to a bad ending Charlie well I like cryptocur currencies a lot less than you do and so to me it's just dementia and I think the people who are professional traders that go into trading cryptocurrencies it it's it's just disgusting it's like somebody else is trading turds and you decide I can't be left out to the extent that this BR we're being webcast around the world I hope some of our stuff doesn't translate very well actually the problem is has been about 1300 daily newspapers in the United States there were 1700 not that long ago is that no one except the Wall Street Journal the New York Times and now probably the Washington Post has come up with a digital product that really in any really significant way will replace the the revenue that is being lost as as print newspapers lose both circulation and advertising and if you look at the communities in which we operate or the communities in which you name it uh other other newspapers operate the community could be prospering we're in a prosperous uh economy presently uh and all are losing daily circulation they're losing Sunday circulation they're using Street what they call Street circul uh Street sales they're losing hom delivered and it is I've been surprised uh that the rate of decline has not moderated uh in the last five years we we bought all the papers at reasonable prices though it's it is not a great economic consequence to burshire but I would like to see daily newspapers uh actually you know be economically VI because of the importance to society but I would say that the trends which I put those circulation figures in there because I think uh shareholders entitled to look year to year uh at at what is happening and it's not only it's happening to 1300 newspapers throughout the United States and it happens in small towns where you would think that the alternative sources of information would not be that good it happens uh it happens every place and uh uh the journal the times and probably the post have a viable uh economic model in in the digital world and probably will continue to shrink I'm almost certain will continue to shrink in the print world but the digital world will be big enough that uh and they'll be successful enough so that they have in my view a sustainable business model but it is very difficult uh to see with a lack of success in terms of important dollars arising from digital it's it's it's difficult to say how the how the print product uh uh survives over time and that's I'm afraid that's true of 1300 papers in this country and uh we'll keep looking to see if there is a way to do it but but you'd have to look at our experience and and look at the experience of everyone else's mcache newspapers came out the other day you know and I think the newspap which is very good find cities that they operate in and advertising revenu is down something like 17 or 18% in circulation but it isn't that just them it's it's everybody in the business and I I wish I had a better answer for you but the but I don't I would say that the economic significance to Berkshire is is almost negligible but but the significance to the society I think actually is is enormous and uh you know I hope uh I hope that we find something I hope others find something because we'll copy it but so far we have not succeeded in that Charlie well the decline was faster than we thought it was going to be so it was not our finest bit of economic prediction and I think it's even worse I think to the extent we miscalculated we may have done it because we both love newspapers and are and have considered them so important in our country these little local newspaper monopolies tended to be owned by people who behaved well and tended to control the politicians and we're going to miss these newspapers if they disappear we're going to miss them terribly and and I think you it doesn't happen but the figures are not good war no no they aren't and and it isn't just you know it isn't some town that has a particular problem with unemployment or anything of the sort and it isn't due to General economic conditions it's uh uh it's due to the fact that in this paper if you wanted to know the baseball results from the present day and the box scores and everything else they told you the following morning and it was still news to you and the financial material that I read from there in terms of looking at the stock prices and everything they were news to you the following morning and the what was developing in the Pacific in terms of the war was news to you when you read about it in the morning in the New York Times and it's news is what you don't know that you want to know and the and those help wanted ads you know segregated as they may have been uh still were the place to go to look to find a job and you can go up and down the line and one element after another where the daily print newspaper was primary uh uh they're no longer primary and uh the the business has changed in a very material way and we've had been able to figure out any solutions that and we'll keep trying and like I say it's it's not of economic consequence but but I think it is societal consequence and and uh we haven't been able to solve it
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