저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
요약 보기
한 줄 결론: 하워드 막스는 시장을 예측하기보다 사이클 위치를 파악해 확률을 판단하고, 리스크를 통제하며 비관과 낙관이 과도할 때 역행하라고 강조한다. [투자 철학과 사이클] 시장과 경제, 인생 전반이 사이클의 지배를 받으며 사이클은 항상 존재한다고 본다. 좋은 시기가 길어질수록 하락 확률이 가장 높은 시점이라고 경고한다. [리스크와 역발상] 위기 때는 과도한 비관으로 자산이 실제보다 더 많이 떨어지므로 저가 매수 기회가 생기고, 낙관이 지나치면 '너무 좋아서 믿기 어렵다'고 판단해야 한다고 말한다. 리스크는 사전에 측정하거나 정량화할 수 없다고 주장한다. [자금 과잉과 가격 결정] 거래 대상에 비해 돈이 너무 많으면 투자자들이 공격적으로 가격을 올려 기대수익은 낮아지고 리스크는 높아진다고 설명한다. [바닥 매수 관점] 바닥은 사후에만 판단 가능하므로 정확히 알 수 없다. 싸다고 판단되면 매수하고, 더 떨어지면 평가가 맞는 한 추가 매수하며 버틸 것을 권한다. [성공하는 투자자의 조건] 강세장에서 돈을 버는 것은 누구나 가능하므로, 핵심은 리스크를 통제하면서 좋은 시기에 수익을 내고 나쁜 시기에도 생존하는 포트폴리오를 구축하는 것이다. [출연자 전망] 특정 자산이나 종목에 대한 구체적인 가격 방향 예측은 없고, 현재 사이클 위치에 따른 확률적 판단과 장기적 원칙을 강조한다.
다듬은 글
hi guys been here and welcome to motivation to invest Howard Marks is one of the greatest investors of all time as founder of oaktree capital which manages over 120 billion dollars he has beat the market multiple times and is a strong advocate of market cycles he believes everything is governed by cycles the economy the stock market and even life in general he has predicted many of the previous stock market crashes and his iconic memos are read by the likes of legendary investors searchers Warren Buffett in a previous interview he stated we cannot predict what will happen tomorrow but by knowing where we are in the market cycle can help us to predict the probability of future outcomes his whole investment strategy is being a contrarian investor which is observing the masses and doing the opposite so in this video I'm going to outline how it marks 10 rules for investment success let's dive ght room ain great ment tips and it's t on that way you'll get notified when a great stock is at a great price so that being said let's get into the video in times of chaos investors fail to make fine distinctions so things go down more than they should and less than they should we we have an opportunity we think to find the things that have gone down more than they should it's a better climate for getting bargains today than it was two months ago and I reached the conclusion that when optimism is excessive my job is to say that's too good to be true when pessimism is excessive it's my job to say that's too bad to be true and that's how we've made money in the crises and you know when I reach that conclusion in '08 I ran back to my office as you know because you've read my books and I wrote a memo called the limits to negativism and I said you know negativism is excessive which means that we should move into an aggressive gear and we did in O six I wrote a memo with the clever title risk and I tried to put down everything that I could think of about risk that I know and some sitting there typing it out and I wrote that you can't measure risk in advance you can't quantify risk in advance and I think that's true you can't measure risk even after the fact you buy something for $100 a year later you sell it for $200 was it risky even worst words in the world and I believe they are too much money chasing too few deals and because when there is too much money chasing too few deals and the money is in the hands of people who are too eager to put it to work and who are too driven by fear of missing out and - and not afraid enough of losing money then they bid too aggressively for securities which takes the form of driving down prospective returns and driving up risk some people want to wait for the bottom well is it better to buy now if you see a bargain than to wait for the bottom well I could ask you what is the bottom Eric and I have no idea well know that it's easy the bottom is the day before it starts going up but how do you know right that's why the bottom is only judged in retrospect so you never know when you're at the bottom but you might have a feeling that something's cheap and if it's cheap you should buy it if it goes down more ie that wasn't to buy it bottom if it goes down more buy some more and keep your nerve and and continue down as long as your assessment is right in cycles in other words things will go well they'll reach a point beyond which they can't get better and by definition they'll start to get worse and then things will deteriorate and then they'll reach a point beyond which they can't get worse and then they'll get better that's the belief of someone who some who who who follow cycles and as you know that that's me I've lived through half a dozen cycles substantial economic and market cycles in my 51 years in the investment business and I believe that we always will have cycles the interesting thing yet you if you pay attention is that when things have gone very well for a long time people start to say well maybe we won't have any more cycles maybe it's going to go straight up forever and of course that is the exact time when the probability of a decline is the greatest we're seeing that now unfortunately the cycle and where we stand in it I don't believe in predicting the future we never know where we're going we should understand the present and where we are in the present where the market is relative to its cycle tells you something about the odds that govern the future doesn't tell you what's going to happen tomorrow but I believe that we can only understand since the world is an uncertain place fulfilled with randomness we can't know what's going to happen in the future but those of us who see the world more clearly than others can have a superior understanding for the probability distribution that governs the future which what things can happen which are most likely which are somewhat likely which are unlikely if you have that consistently you are a superior understander and you can be a superior investor key to success is to establish a portfolio so that if the market goes up you will make money and if the market goes down you will survive the controlling risk is the mark of a professional anybody can make money when the market goes up and most of the time the market goes up and anybody who in who takes above average risk can do above average when the market Rises so achieving returns is not a point of distinction in good times in my opinion the distinction of a superior investor is achieving returns in good times with the risk under control because you never know when the environment is going to shift from favorable to unfavorable and the question is are you prepared you know somebody who if the markets of ten and you're up 12 and the markets down 10 and you're down 12 you didn't accomplish anything the question is can you make more in the good times then you give back in the bad times in in Japanese philosophy there's a concept called mojo which basically talks about the impermanence of things the changing nature of things the difficulty of controlling things you can't bend the river you know we taught me that there are things beyond my control and beyond my knowledge and that the key is to to deal with them effectively you know I consider that one of the most positive influences that I was fortunate to enjoy and and subscribe see you next time
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