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a small caveat as we say this , I don't want our viewers to misunderstand what you're saying . This doesn't mean buy it now, this minute. Yes, absolutely. That means I basically provided a recommended list. I'm telling everyone to know about that barbell. One of them: It probably works well right now.
The reason for this could be working from home due to people not being able to go to offices, or issues related to data centers , as data usage has increased exponentially due to people staying at home. The other half of the barbell will come in handy when we get out , I don't know when we'll get out , but I like Carrie's analysis that things will improve by this time next month .
You'll have to start buying things like Disney and Boeing . I always listen to Stephanie. I have a little doubt about Boeing . My travel trust owns Disney, which would have been nice otherwise, but I definitely want to own it in the future . I think Amazon will do well , but Amazon's pricing is a bit high at the moment.
Walmart is profitable today. These are the barbell parts you need to have when things get better. So I 'm balancing what we need to have for the future with what we can have right now, because I think investors should be interested in things like RingCentral, Citrix, Cloudflare . I think Bristol Myers and Johnson & Johnson's balance sheets work well .
I liked Mandalay here . They are doing very well, except for the gum business . So I like some stocks now, some later , but I don't like most of them in the market. I want to emphasize that all the stocks on the wall are interesting . They may not be interesting today, but they certainly were . Jim, how long do you think we should wait for these 'no touch' stocks to come back into the discussion ?
Over the past few weeks, some people have come to the show and bought the 'no touch' stocks on your list , whether they are travel related or otherwise , they thought the prices had dropped significantly . There is another aspect to this. To this. I have a business. I have a business in Italy . And I have a daughter in Madrid .
Those are probably two places you wouldn't want to do business or have a daughter in . Madrid is not finished yet. I do n't know what my daughter will say. Listen, this is one of the great cities for nightlife, but they realized it too late . She loves that city very much . Northern Italy too, the situation is the same.
The situation has not changed much. However, the situation in Italy has been improving for the last six days. You know, after a month, a month and a half of fear, Italy got better. We have a better health system. The mayor of New York told everyone to enjoy themselves until about four weeks ago . This is almost exactly how it happened in northern Italy .
So what I'm saying is, if you take the two worst-hit areas, Spain and Italy, there's finally some light in Italy , and hopefully by the end of this week there will be some light in Spain as well . Here is your F. Here you go . That means you have six or seven weeks . I think our problem started the night Adam Silver stopped playing NBA .
Alan Adams, President. Oh, sorry. No, he's the NBA commissioner. He started and so did Rita Wilson, Tom Hanks. We realized that this had come to us that night. Everything has been going downhill since then . I think things have gone downhill since Milan Fashion Week in Italy , counting down the days since Milan Fashion Week means we have some really bad days ahead of us, but they will be over soon .
Yes. Let's hope so, because we are entering April . This is a time when we think the numbers are going to be dire and yes it is hard to bear and every day it is going to be awful . Governor Cuomo is very honest , isn't he? His brother. Not very honest. Do you understand what I'm saying? Oh, are you seeing Governor Cuomo ?
Any of you? He's giving updates every day and he's, you know, the person the market is paying the most attention to right now, beyond medical experts like Fauci and Dr. Birx and Dr. Gat . Because New York is a hub and a hot spot, when Governor Cuomo speaks , everyone stops and listens and thinks, "Okay, this is the reality of where we are ." He is ready to talk in a moment .
While he's explaining the statistics , let's examine it as usual. Hey, car. Things are going well in Boston right now, Carrie. Yes. Nothing is that bad. I don't know. Okay. I think we've been practicing social distancing here longer than New York . Many businesses, retail, my husband's business, restaurants , bars, all closed before New York.
Some people who need it may come. It's not great, but it's not that bad compared to New York City. It's not as crowded as New York City. Can I ask Scott to show me a chart? We have prepared a chart. I think you have it . These are the 10 worst quarters in recent history. And I think it goes up to 87 .
87. If you look, six months before, five quarters have good returns, six months after, three quarters are worse, and two quarters are normal. I'm not saying that other quarters where the market has fallen will be similar to this. It's definitely unique , but 6 months to market is a long time . It's hard to imagine what the economy, healthcare system, and world will look like in six months, that's a long time.
If you think back six months , no one had heard the word coronavirus. True. But when you see those dips in other recessions or recessionary periods, I can tell you, Carrie, you will emerge with certainty and return to normal . This is confusing. The definition of normalcy may change a lot after this, and we will all need to understand that .
When we actually get to the other side , that's a good point, Scott. How I think when I short a stock or take a long position : I look at where I could be wrong . Where is my mistake likely to occur ? How much could my loss be? What is my profit here? I do n't understand... I can't imagine where I'm going wrong .
The only chance I could be wrong is that we will defeat the virus in less time than we thought, in just one week instead of two weeks, three weeks, or a month . It is not reasonable to think so. The numbers Carey showed are interesting , but honestly, they don't give me any courage when the market drops another 20% or 10% .
And I'm looking for a single digit or 11% gain at most . First, I don't know when those six months will start . Second, as was addressed with fiscal policy in '08 , that situation is no longer there, so it's not such a good risk- reward scenario. That is not possible at all. Let me go back to that list .
I didn't expect to leave there so soon . Let's look at the list of names that Joe and Jim came up with on the screen again . He suggested in his barbell portfolio what to think about during this time and what to think about after this situation is over . Tell us your opinion on which ones you have or are considering.
Yes. Since we are doing this TV program from a different location , I am turning to my left to look at the list . So naturally we're not looking at you anymore. We are looking at that list on the wall . Okay, don't worry about it. I have Amazon. I think what Jim said is a very good thing . However, I liked Jim's decision to clearly state what not to include.
I think it's very important to identify where the risk lies in this environment . Technology companies stand out on this list due to their cash reserves and earnings visibility . I think real estate is doing well due to lower private sector borrowing costs and the shift towards suburban lifestyles .
And I think consumers will do well too . One name I don't see on that list, Jim, is Microsoft. In these circumstances, I see Microsoft as a shining star in the technology sector . Think about the number of people who need to use the cloud and imagine how many people use Microsoft Office and Skype remotely.
So in this environment Microsoft, which is definitely the stake I have, should be on that list . Another name I want to add to that , Jim , is Home Depot. Okay. TV is a strange thing. I did a whole article last night about Microsoft and why you should own it. So, I kind of mentioned , you know, I like Microsoft too.
So, you are absolutely right. There's an article that says if you want to know about one stock you should own, it's Microsoft. So, lest you think I didn't say that , it's in the article, so don't worry. I really want to talk about Home Depot . It fell very badly . Today one company raised its expectations, raised its price target , and another lowered it.
Timber prices are falling . That should be good. Spring has come. But here is my problem. They have a big planting business , and some of us aren't planting this year . And I say some of us, maybe it's millions . So, I'm concerned about the year-over-year comparison , but in terms of the balance sheet, wow, Home Depot is looking great .
So, I think there's a level where we all agree , that's the right way. I met Marvin Ellison from Lowe's. They also raised a lot of money . The other, the big stores, are the winners on the other hand . Home Depot is definitely one of them. So, Joe, you're Jim, you think so or you say so. I'm sorry. Tell me, Jim.
Don't you think Home Depot and Lowe's will adopt the delivery strategy that's working so well for companies like Amazon now ? Okay, maybe that's it . Look, Home Depot has a good dot com, but Lowe's doesn't. And now, why am I saying that? Because Marvin told me he still had to spend more money . And the previous ownership did n't really understand the value of the dot.
So Marvin is behind, but Marvin is a very good manager. I love Lowe's. We called them last week, they raised capital. Whoever raises capital has a balance sheet. Home Depot has an excellent balance sheet. Those on the other side will succeed. I'm sure both Lowe's and Home Depot have a chance . I hope everyone agrees with me . Tell me if you disagree , because it's an interesting question.
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