저자: TickerSymbol:YOU진행자Alex · 외국인
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엔비디아 주가 급락의 원인으로 딥시크의 메모리 효율 혁신, 트럼프 관세, 젠슨 황의 주식 매도 뉴스를 꼽고, 이는 과도한 우려이며 장기적으로 AI 수요는 유지된다고 주장. 과거 여러 차례 20% 이상 하락 후 회복한 역사를 제시하며 장기 보유 관점을 강조. 자금 분할 매수(평균매수)와 'time in the market' 원칙도 권장.
다듬은 글
there's no doubt that Nvidia is the most powerful AI company on Earth right now but the question is for how long Nvidia stock has been crashing hard going down by 20% in the last month alone and between deep seeks breakthroughs the Trump administration's trade tariffs and Jensen Wong selling $14 million of Nvidia stock every single day there's really only one question left to ask is this the beginning of the end for Nvidia stock or are its best days still to come this video is a little different I'm sharing more of my personal opinions than usual and they may not be for everyone that said I'm going to talk about upfront all the reasons that Nvidia stock is crashing what Jensen's huge sales say about the future of Nvidia I'll show you some important data that I always look at whenever I get worried and of course my current long-term outlook on Nvidia stock based on everything that's going on right now all right let's Dive Right into why Nvidia is crashing there are three big things putting downward pressure on Nvidia stock right now first a Chinese company called Deep seek recently released a breakthrough open source large language model called Deep seek R1 I covered deep seeks technical papers in my two previous videos so I won't spend too much time on them here but in a nutshell deep seek R1 performs roughly as well as open ai1 in many third-party benchmarks while using much less memory deep seeks results and Innovations in memory usage have all been verified by AI labs in the US and that's important because using much less memory means AI models can run on far fewer Nvidia gpus calling into question whether companies like Microsoft Google Amazon and meta platforms will keep spending tens of billions of dollars on nvidia's chips every quarter my personal opinion is that this is actually a good thing for NVIDIA because it means large language models are no longer only for companies that can afford tens of thousands of gpus the barrier of Entry to run large language models just went way down which means way more schools research Labs small businesses and entirely new markets will start to use it more often which more than offsets these lower costs on the flip side I expect the tech Giants to fill their data centers to Max Capacity since these same Innovations in memory make every dollar spent on Hardware go that much further letting data centers support more AI workloads at higher margins second president Donald Trump instituted tariffs on Goods imported from Canada Mexico and China the biggest impact on the semiconductor industry actually comes from the 25% tariffs on automobile imports from Canada and Mexico since cars have a lot of electronics in them but that really has nothing to do with Nvidia which makes me think the stock 6% drop after the Tariff news comes from the market being worried about Trump targeting AI chips and putting much higher tariffs on China in the future my personal opinion on this is that Donald Trump tends to use tariffs as a negotiating tactic for example to get Mexico and Canada to increase Border Protection efforts and I don't think that President Trump will Implement any policies that hurt us economic growth or the stock market in the long term the third thing that's making Nvidia stock crash right now is all the news around nvidia's CEO Jensen Wong selling $14 million worth of stock every day last summer totaling in over $320 million of stock sales and that's on top of the roughly $120 Million worth of Nvidia stock that he sold the year before the headlines make it sound bad like Jensen Wong could think that this is the top for Nvidia stock but that couldn't be further from the truth according to Simply Wall Street Jensen still owns 3.5% of the entire company which works out to around 860 million shares worth around $103 billion that means that Jensen's $440 Million worth of stock sales don't even add up to 1/ half of 1% of his total Holdings said another way if you had $10,000 of video stock this would be like you selling $44 worth that's basically a rounding error and not just that but Jensen didn't go into his brokerage account and sell these shares himself his sales were planned under the 10b5-1 rule which is a rule that every investor should know about the 10B 5-1 rule allows insiders to set up automatic trading plans to buy or sell their stocks at certain prices that way company insiders can't just buy up shares because they know about good news ahead of time or sell their stock ahead of a bad earnings call that means that Jensen Wong who's 61 years old and has been running Nvidia for over 30 years is actually super bullish on the stock since Nvidia hitting $125 per share last summer only triggered sales on 0.5% of his Holdings that means most of his planned sales are still in the future probably targeting much higher prices for the stock all this news together is what caused Nvidia stock to drop by 20% over the last month but deep seeks memory Innovations could actually increase demand for nvidia's chips Trump's tariffs probably won't be as severe as they sound since they could be used as bargaining chips as we've already seen and Jensen Wong sold just 0.5% of his Holdings last summer when Nvidia stock was at a higher price than it is today so I think the market is making a big mistake on Nvidia stock which presents a big opportunity for long-term investors now here's the even bigger issue this channel has grown a lot over the last few months and means the world to me that over 450,000 of you choose to spend some of your precious free time with me each week I really mean that but every time Nvidia stock goes down I get flooded with comments on YouTube and X asking me why I'm not talking about the crash and how Nvidia stock is the most important thing I can be talking about even though paler just hit $100 per share after smashing earnings and AMD reports earnings in just a few hours at the time of this recording and I assume that for every comment that I see there are hundreds of other people quietly wondering these same things so let me put things in perspective for you the one investing rule that's made me the most money and saved me the most heartache is this when in doubt zoom out that means don't just look at near-term Price action yes Nvidia stock is down 20% over the last month but it's still up by over 450% in the last 2 years and 70% in the last year alone and if you actually look at this price chart for more than a second you'll see that Nvidia stock has actually dropped by 20 % three other times over the past year that's basically once per quarter now let me show you a few charts that I put together that will really blow your mind you've heard the story many times before if you invested $10,000 in Nvidia when they went public back in 1999 you'd have over $29 million today that's a 36% compound annual growth rate for 26 years straight absolutely crushing the returns of the S&P 500 so beating the market is easy you just buy some growth stocks and you hold them forever right wrong I've been holding inidia stock since 2016 and it's been one of the most difficult stocks to hold ever let me show you why here's another version of the same price chart except this time it's showing Enid's draw Downs the top of this chart is 0% which means Nvidia stock reached a new high and was 0% off of its peak everything below zero is how far the price has dropped from that Peak and how long it took to recover before making making a new high set another way this is every tip that Nvidia stock has ever had so let's count them up Nvidia stock has dropped by 10% or more 34 separate times it's dropped by 20% or more 21 times it's dropped by 30% 12 separate times which means it had to recover by almost 50% to reach a new high all 12 times Nvidia stock dropped by 50% five separate times which means it needed to double all five times just to break even and it crashed by 80% twice once when the dotom bubble popped and again during the financial crisis but wait it gets even worse when we look at how long the deepest crashes also took to recover if you invested in Nvidia right at the top of the dotom bubble you watched the stock Collapse by 85% over the next year and 2 years later you were still down by 80% meaning Nvidia stock would have to 5x just for you to break even and it did recover but it took over 5 years just in time for the Global financial crisis of 2007 and 2008 where Nvidia stock fell by over 80% again except this time instead of hitting a new high after half a decade it was still down by around 70% it ended up taking 9 years for Nvidia stock to recover from the global financial crisis 9 years I bought my first shares of Nvidia stock in 2016 when I was working at MIT because we were using their Titan gpus like this one to accelerate calculations on real-time data feeds from Radars and telescopes and I had an Nvidia GPU in my pc at home so since I was using nvidia's products for work and for gaming I figured it was a good stock to buy and guess what happened everyone told me not to buy it for all the same reasons that you still here today you already missed the runup it's at all-time highs wait for the next dip and when the stock did finally dip everybody changed their tune why would you buy a stock that's constantly losing money or don't buy it now you're catching a falling night or just wait it'll go even lower and as we all know it never did even at the bottom of this 2-year dip Nvidia stock was twice as expensive as the first time I bought it which is a real double whammy since it meant I ended up buying half as many shares and I paid twice the price then halfway through 2020 Nvidia announced their a100 data center gpus but the stock was already near alltime highs so guess what I did that's right I sat on the sidelines waiting for the next dip again while the stock more than doubled in price then at the end of 2020 I started ticker symbol U and I spent the first year or so making the exact same mistakes I was buying the stocks inside AR invest funds and covering Kathy Wood's stock picks instead of my own but when Nvidia stock collapsed in 2021 and Kathy Wood kept selling shares instead of buying them I decided to finally put my money where my mouth was and make videos explaining why I disagreed then in the summer of 2022 when when Nvidia stock hit the same price as when they first announced their a100 gpus and kathywood was still selling it I decided to call it quits on Arc invest and I started covering the stocks that I know the most about instead just a few months later Nvidia released their h100 Data Center gpus and the rest is history after that I promised myself that I'd never let anyone else tell me what to do with my investments and honestly that's an expensive lesson that I think every good investor ends up learning over time anyway here's my point these two charts are the same chart which means investors can never get the returns in the top chart if they can't handle the volatility in the bottom one nvidia's stock price can easily move by 5% or more in a single day just like Palante here just like Tesla and just like any other high growth Tech stock a 20% draw down isn't a crash for these kinds of stocks it's a dip in fact nvidia's price to earnings ratio is near a 5year low making this a dip I'm happy to buy and before I share my current outlook on Nvidia stock here are a couple more quick tips that really help me out as a full-time investor first doing nothing is usually a great option there's no shame in sitting on the sidelines and waiting for the right opportunity especially when there's a new president making big waves in the global economy now is a great time to build cash pay your bills buy your significant other something nice for Valentine's Day next week yeah you're welcome and second when the right opportunity does come along smart investors build their positions over time instead of going all in at once even though it's not always easy averaging in and out of positions is one of the simplest tricks for good risk management and even better returns I'll link one of my favorite articles titled even God couldn't beat dollar cost averaging the article Compares dollar cost averaging to buying the exact bottom of every single dip which obviously would require Godlike foresight and timing and the conclusion is very clear even if you had perfect knowledge of every dip in the future waiting for them usually performs worse than averaging in over time said another way time in the market beats timing the market these three tools one in doubt zoom out sometimes the right answer is doing nothing and time in the market beats timing the market have helped me stay in and even double down on Nvidia stock and paler stock and many other great stocks that I cover each week speaking of which I said I'd tell you my latest long-term outlook on Nvidia stock so let me wrap up with that and hat I can make more personal here's what I think about Nvidia stock right now I still think Nvidia is the most powerful AI company on earth and the AI Revolution will keep being powered by their chips and their data center infrastructure from self-driving cars and supercomputers to large language models and humanoid robots deep seeks Innovation and memory might move some of that compute power from training to inference but it won't lower overall demand Trump's tariffs might cause some short-term pain but they're not a serious long-term concern and Jensen Wong will keep selling Nvidia stock as he should but as long as those sales are tiny fractions of his overall Holdings and they're automated the scary headlines will do a lot more damage than his actual sales Nvidia is still the only AI company that works with every other AI company they're constantly shipping new products and services that are laying the foundation for the generative AI era and they still have over a 90% share of the GPU market and if you're still worried about Nvidia stock randomly going down by 20% after one of the biggest rallies in stock market history then maybe you should spend a little more time understanding
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