저자: DanIves · 외국인
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Dan Ives는 SpaceX IPO가 AI·우주 산업 전환의 분수령이며 머스크 관련 투자가 역사적으로 옳았다고 주장한다. AI 지출은 향후 수년간 3~4조 달러 규모로 초기 단계이며, 기업들의 AI 사용 한도 설정은 사용처 확산 과정의 일부로 본다. 정부의 AI 모델 자율 감독 발언은 적절한 균형으로 평가하고, 일자리 손실 우려는 과장됐다고 주장한다. 팔란티어, 스노우플레이크, 데이터독 등 소프트웨어 및 사이버보안 수혜를 강조한다.
다듬은 글
Dan, welcome to the program. Fantastic reporting from Reuters. Just walk me through how you perceive that reporting. Just the idea that they have this degree of confidence just ahead of the IPO roadshow. They can just set the price ahead of time. Yeah. Look. I think it speaks I think Lisa hit on a important topic.
I mean, on the private side, you're talking about the price discovery. So much of that's been there on the private side. If you go back over the last few years and even the last few months, but this is it's a showing of confidence because the reality is it's gonna be a watershed event in terms of the space sector from Musk, and it just speaks to our view.
I mean, records will be broke over the coming weeks, whether it's the Knicks or SpaceX IPF. Dani, you've lost, Annmarie or actually gained her. She's gonna go all, go all mug with you. I'm curious, though, much this is gonna set the tone for Anthropic or OpenAI or whether that's gonna ultimately be a very different story than SpaceX.
I think different in some way just given the AI arms raised Anthropic to OpenAI. But, look, it's a tone setter because this is gonna be really a tidal wave of IPOs, and, obviously, it starts with SpaceX. And, look, it just it speaks to our view about the fourth industrial revolution. And that's more how I think how SpaceX is gonna be viewed on the AI data side, of course, on space, but it's really a convergence that you're seeing, and it's a Musk.
I mean, you're you're also you're buying Musk, and it goes back, like, those that went against Musk and Tesla. Know, You those have been the historically wrong bets if you go back. Yeah. You're buying Elon Musk at the very cheap price of $960,000,000,000. Meanwhile, you are seeing a number of different companies start to put limits on how much of some of these AI tools they're using just because the costs are getting so high.
Yes. You're seeing incredible earnings from the likes of Anthropic or even, some of the other big giants. At the same time, Uber, for example, set a monthly cap because things were getting so out of control. Does that make you concerned? You know, you're gonna have some caps in some situations, then some companies are ultimately gonna have to you know, they're they're gonna look at more, you know, volume across the enterprise.
If you look at how it's being deployed in a lot of companies, it's department, not enterprise. And I think as you go more enterprise wide, it speaks to the use cases that are gonna explode. And we've talked about Palantir, Snowflake. You've seen a Datadog on the software side. You're now seeing it continue to play out.
Cybersecurity will be a tangential there. But this it's third inning, one out in terms of this AI game. And I think we're still early in terms of the spending cycle. And you're gonna have, call it, 3 to 4,000,000,000,000 spend over the coming years with so many winners and the derivatives now playing out.
And it's our view that this is really just still the early stages of AI revolution. Dan, what did you make of the president's executive order yesterday asking these technology companies to voluntary give the government basically oversight of any new models that they come out with? Look. I think it's a tightrope because you got it's a balancing act what they're doing.
You gotta put guardrails in some way. Now you don't want overreaching because to to some extent, you know, in especially the arms race in China, that could definitely, you know, put sand in the gears. And look, from a politician perspective, you don't want I mean, as many politicians you don't want politicians still using BlackBerrys that are that are the ones determining AI model technology.
So I think that's part of the balance here, but I think it's smart. You you have to have some sort of government who is quasi oversight, but a lot of it's gonna be self regulation from the industry. I actually loved my BlackBerry, but what we keep on what the government is doing, Trump had promised a hands off approach.
So do you think this is the first of many steps potentially to taking a more assertive approach when it comes to AI? Look. I think a lot of this is the PR, and we've talked the it's the big PR problem that tech has. If you keep talking about job losses and some of the AI alarmism that's going on, this is what you get.
Right? I mean, I saw at a milking conference in terms of how many politicians were there that I spoke with. And, look, it is about you cannot just have it go fully unchecked. I think it's a call it a baby step move. I don't expect this to be any sort of overreaching, but I think it's smart. You need to have some sort of quasi guardrails or some sort of, you know, oversight in in terms of what's going on with what's really gonna change the consumer and enterprise lifestyle and economy over the coming years.
And, Dan, do you think Altman's kinda getting it now by putting some daylight between him and Anthropic and the way he talks about the future of this technology? 100%. Because I think, all but you're seeing a a change. I mean, look. We've seen shift changes if you go back years ago. Look at Zuckerberg back 17 and now.
So you're definitely seeing tone shifts. And I think it's important because if you keep going out there telling people they're gonna lose their jobs and their electricity bills are gonna go higher, I mean, you you you have AI under long TSA lines in terms of surveys. So I think this is a smart move what they're doing, and it's the reality.
We continue to think a lot of the job loss stuff, I think it's overdone relative to the reality. And it comes down to, like, get the popcorn out, SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic. It's gonna be a super interesting few months historical for the market. Without a doubt, let's see how it turns out. Dani's gonna see you, sir.
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