저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 변동성과 50% 낙폭을 감내할 수 있는 장기 투자 멘탈을 갖추라는 메시지이며, 특정 종목·자산에 대한 가격 방향 예측은 없다. 찰리 멍거의 합리성 원칙 소개: 멍거는 워런 버핏의 동업자이며, 장기 투자자는 50% 하락을 크게 신경 쓰지 않고 견뎌야 한다고 강조했다. 멍거가 운용하던 사모펀드도 70년대 초 50% 하락을 겪었다. 변동성 인식: 포트폴리오가 항상 우상향하지 않으며 큰 하락은 주식 투자의 입장권과 같은 비용이다. 진행자 본인도 하루 70% 하락을 겪은 종목이 1년 뒤 5배, 10년 뒤 50배 오른 경험을 언급했다. 낙폭 대응의 핵심은 내재가치: 기업의 펀더멘털과 5년 후 성장 전망을 이해해야 하락 시에도 흔들리지 않는다. 가격이 내재가치보다 한참 낮으면 보유에 편안함을 느낄 수 있다. 공포 매도의 위험: 2009년 3월 바닥 근처에서 금융주 폭락에 놀라 전부 매도한 대학 교수 사례를 들며 공포 매도의 비극을 경고했다. 개인별 점검: 50% 하락을 견딜 수 있는지, 그때 어떻게 행동할지 미리 생각해야 한다. 유동성이 낮은 사모펀드·부동산은 일일 가격 노출이 적어 감정적 매도를 줄일 수 있다. 진행자의 대응 방식: 모든 투자는 50% 하락 가능성을 전제하며, 하락 시 추가 매수할 수 있도록 현금을 더 보유한다. 시장 ETF로 헤지하며 개별 종목 공매도는 하지 않는다. 헤지 방법과 저평가 종목 사례는 유료 콘텐츠로 안내했다. 레버리지 경고: 레버리지 투자는 50% 하락을 견디기 어려운 취약한 포지션이므로, 하락이 오기 전에 미리 점검해야 한다. 홍보 요소: 월 1회 멀티배거 후보 종목 공개, 유료 교육 콘텐츠, 디스코드 커뮤니티를 소개했다.
다듬은 글
a lot of folks have woken up recently to realize that hey my portfolio doesn't always go straight up what's up with that hey this is actually starting to decline a bit or maybe it's just choppy what's going on and in that case i think it's worthwhile to understand or at least approach have in your mind one of the greatest investors charlie munger and his own mental models for addressing the volatility of the stock market and how it can be helpful for you now for those that aren't familiar with charlie munger he's business partners with warren buffett warren buffett obviously has if you're not familiar with warren buffett you should probably close up youtube right now and go read the berkshire hathaway annual letters for the last few decades and look it's it's one of the most successful investment vehicles of all time and charlie munger warren buffett both billionaires in their own right both exceptional investors in their own right but really what where i really respect charlie munger a great deal warren buffett as well is that they're both beacons of rationality they're really inspirations for saying hey no matter what life throws at you the more rational you can be as you as you address these challenges the better off you'll be ultimately so sort of suck it up buttercup and and be rational as as challenges happen as adversity naturally happens to everyone so what's charlie munger have to say about managing your portfolio dealing with potential adversity when it comes to your investments and so here it is what's he have to say he he talks about if you're going to be in this game for the long pole which is the way to do it i.e be a long-term investor short term much tougher to play you better be able to handle a 50 decline without fussing too much about it he separately said the value of my partnership went down 50 this is back when he was running his own hedge fund for family and friends he his investment vehicle dropped 50 percent in the early 70s it's a mark of manhood he said you better be able to handle it without much fussing handle a 50 decline without much fussing so first of all i want to know your thoughts on this so leave leave a comment below in this video but you know as i think about a 50 decline and based on my own experience on wall street over the last few decade last two decades uh including working at a multi-billion dollar hedge fund this happens you're gonna have huge declines you know i've personally invested in stocks that dropped one one drop 70 percent in a day it was a painful experience but over the next year went up 5x and in the ensuing decade it went up 50x so you need to understand this is this volatility this is the price of admission to play the game so this is a very valuable mindset i believe for new investors new investors to this game to understand hey there's going to be significant volatility and you better be be prepared for potentially 50 declines especially when it's overlaid with folks like you know michael bury dr michael bury who's also called out how extremely overvalued this market is so things don't always go straight up the question is hey if if my portfolio or an investment drops 50 how am i supposed to have the mental fortitude to make sure i don't fuss about it or worse i panic about it how do you make sure you don't do something that's adverse to your own long-term desires and this this is where once again charlie charlie munger and warren buffett their their sort of beacon of rationality comes in which is that they look at every investment from a perspective of what's the intrinsic value and that's why with every video where i call out a company i'm usually trying to pencil out like hey here's a hypothetical framework for what this intrinsic value could be and when you see the intrinsic value here and the price is here that's probably too hard but when the intrinsic value is here and you think it'll be up here in five years from now and the price is all the way down here then you should be comfortable and so the the trick here is getting that comfort around intrinsic value and so how do you do that you know i have made a video exclusively for journey subscribers about thinking about valuation for stocks but it really it comes down to understanding what are the fundamentals of this business is it unrivaled do i think it will keep growing in the years ahead that's the key crux of this and so if you're not really familiar with a what this business could be could look like in five years from now what could their margins look like five years from now the reality is you might not you know it might not be appropriate for you to be in that investment because there will be the inevitable pain adversity challenge where it goes against you and then you're saying wow i'm sitting on a loss what do i do now and this is this is sort of the next component is that invariably there will be folks that say hey you know i'm gung-ho about this investment then when they face a 30 40 50 loss you know what they do it's too it is truly tragic and that point 50 down they bail out they're like i'm out of here this is too painful i don't know how much further it could drop and that's the challenge you know like i i had a college professor call me in march 2009 literally like near the bottom of the market and they're like you know what this is my retirement nest egg i'm blowing out of everything and i and i couldn't talk them out of it like it saddens me to this day because they were so shocked by the market drop they were so sock to see show so shocked to see their financial stocks blow up that they're like i'm just out of here and so that's that's a second question for your own personal journey to think about can i stomach can i weather a 50 drop what will i do when that invariable drop happens because it'll happen when that inevitable drop happens i i don't know when it'll happen 5 10 20 years from now but someday you will have an investment that drops 50 percent maybe maybe next month and when that happens how do you react to it that's the critical part of it because if you have the mental fortitude where you're saying daniel i'm i'm out of this if this drops 30 percent maybe this game isn't appropriate for you if you're if you're taking mr market and mr market's quotations saying hey this is this is the value of this and you're saying oh okay i'm just i'm getting out of here this might not be the appropriate journey for you and there are other alternatives where you could do really well see a lot of folks don't do well with getting prices quoted to them every day whereas in things like let's say private equity or real estate it's not liquid you don't have the option to bail out oh my goodness you have to take your time on the those decisions so if you are going to get shaken out by the inevitable distress the inevitable adversity the inevitable price declines you need to really think about that think about what am i going to be comfortable holding because at the end of the day you need to know the intrinsic value and the price longer term now how do i personally incorporate charlie munger's wisdom and approach to investing for my own personal journey and for more about my personal journey you could go to unraveled unraveledin then once during the month i call at least one potential multibagger or type of stock that i think has potentially at unrivaledinvesting.com there's also exclusive you know like educational content as well as the discord community exclusive discord community that we're building out and so how do i incorporate charlie munger's wisdom when i'm thinking about this and personally every single investment i make i fully expect it can drop fifty percent that is part of the game but i also have a plan in my head saying okay if this drops fifty percent why did it drop fifty percent and oftentimes my approach is yeah i'll wanna buy more if it does okay so if i want to buy more if something drops by 50 what's that mean i have to do today okay that means i'm going to sit on a little more cash so maybe my returns aren't as crazy you know aren't crazy good it does don't necessarily chase the market each month or each day because i'm going to sit on more cash because i'll be prepared for an event like that this is this is my own personal approach everyone has to figure out their own personal journey as i mentioned earlier some folks may be better suited to just do real estate investing or something like that longer term the question is you know it's no doubt in my mind that you want to own equity in something because if you're just going to try to work for yourself or try to make a salary the whole your whole life and that's that's your goal for retirement you got to have your money work for you and that's that's the key aspect here is that if you want to make your money work for you your investments work for you you'll be able to you better understand that there's real cost to it in terms of the volatility and that's the way it is with equities which would personally personally i believe are one of the best returning assets over time and will continue to be over the next hopefully century and so i personally consider it saying okay every investment be prepared for that one-two punch in the face where you see something drop significantly meaning be able to be you know have a buying approach two have a hedging strategy now that's also my own personal approach where you know i consider hedging against let's say market etfs i don't short individual stocks i don't want to you know bet against other people's you know dreams and expectations um but etfs are you know i feel more comfortable on especially as things get in hypervalue territory i did make a video exclusively on how i hedge for those interested and then there's also you know the consideration of you need to understand this gets back to monger's key point about not fussing is what's the intrinsic value versus what's the you know share price and for example i recently did a video my may potential multibagger was a stock that trades below liquidation value significantly below liquidation value and it's it's part of a company that's growing significantly so that over the next you know a few years if the business keeps growing yeah there's 200 300 upside at least that's how i think about it you know say same thing with june where i called out you know another potential multi-bagger where the the downside strikes me as very manageable if the price were to drop significantly from here i would be very excited about it and then you think hey could this be you know up 200 300 upside over time using conservative scenarios so i think this is a critical mindset you need to have if you're going to be in the investment game because if you can't handle it if you're fully invested right now or you're levered invested and you can't handle let's say a 50 drop because you're so levered that's a vulnerable position it's something for you to think about and the time to think about it is before the 50 drop happens anywho i hope this video has been helpful for you if you enjoyed it if you learned a little something about charlie munger
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