저자: DanIves · 외국인
요약 보기
AI 슈퍼사이클이 향후 2~3년간 지속되며 기술주 강세가 이어진다고 주장. 엔비디아 칩 수요가 공급의 약 10배, 하이퍼스케일러 실적이 전망치를 5~7% 상회, 시장이 향후 1년 통계를 20~30% 과소평가한다고 봄. 나스닥 25,000~30,000 전망, 팔란티어는 2~3년 내 1조 달러 가치 주장. 중국 AI·기술주에도 긍정적, 알리바바·BYD 등 과매도 언급.
다듬은 글
What can I glean from these TSMC results? And how's it going to tell us about the earnings for the rest of the tech? It's 10:30 p.m. in this AI party. It start at 900 p.m. and that party goes to 4:00 a.m. And the reality is like look, this is going to be a 2 to threeyear left in this bull cycle for tech.
Look, haters are going to hate. Bears will say it's a, you know, this is a bubble. I could just tell you this is the fourth industrial revolution. We are just in the early days of this playing out. I think those numbers and we're going to see throughout tech earnings, it's going be What do these TSMC results tell me?
How will it inform us of the remaining tech company's earnings? This AI party is at 10:30 p.m. The party began at 9:00 p.m. and lasted until 4:00 a.m. Furthermore, the truth is that current tech bull cycle will last for 2 to 3 years. See, those who hate will continue to hate. You know, this is a bubble.
Bears will say this is the fourth industrial revolution if I may say so. We have only just begun to see this unfold. I believe that the AI revolution will be validated by those figures which we will observe throughout tech earnings. Additionally, I believe that the bears are unable to perceive AI in the spreadsheets when they are in hibernation state.
Are you primarily seeking for any guidance regarding the next earnings? Look, I believe there is a 10 to1 ratio between supply and demand for Nvidia chips. Thus, just begin there. Then you consider AMD now that they are well clearly involved in all of these deals and they will continue to do so. After Intel and TSMC are introduced, you sort of look at the hyperscalers as if they were a riddle.
Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are currently tracking between 5 and 7% over forecasts in my opinion. Examine what Oracle is observing. This is the next stage of the AI revolution as evidenced by the parts you put together in this jigsaw, particularly names like Palentor and others. As this all unfolds in this AI super cycle, I believe we'll be discussing 25,000 NASDAQ, 27,000, and 30,000.
Given how bullish you are, I suppose I must be a hater. I'm going to play devil's advocate, but I'm not really a hater. When discussing the trillions of dollars that Open III is prepared to sort of pay for, you brought up these deals, these circular deals, even though we have no idea how they will pay for it.
What does it say you about our current situation? They say that's a bubble after all. Yes, you see, I understand it since I was a tech stock investor in the 1990s. Thus, comparisons are made. We're talking about autonomous robotics, which is like the future, and you're laying out the next economy for consumers and businesses.
So, I see it as being like apples and oranges. So, it's not like the vendor financing we witnessed. In my opinion, if I were Sam at Open and I, I would give Lisa Sue and AMD $1 and receive $15 to $20 in return. That seems like a decent bargain. And that's basically how this is unfolding in my opinion.
Look, I see this buildout as more large tech partnership, but that's where we are. Investors will continue to have these moments where they say, "That's it. Oh, that's a sign of a bubble." In my opinion, I just believe that the street is currently underestimating statistics by 20 to 30% for the upcoming year, underestimating the AI super cycle, and underestimating the second, third, and fourth derivative winners in the IT industry.
Do we do more than just collaborate or finance vendors? We'll call it collaborations. Will there be additional mergers? Does some of this make sense to integrate vertically? Yes. Consider the location of the choke holds power. As a result, you will see an increasing number of acquisitions, both fusion and nuclear.
Big tech companies are what I believe in, right? You consider acquisitions from the perspective of use cases because at the moment Palunteer and MessiAI are quite prominent but there are other software companies like MongoDB and Snowflake where well software is struggling right now aren't they even with Salesforce and others you witnessed that therefore I believe that you will see an increasing amount of M&A from major IT companies as well as software as you can see that simply indicates my optimism about the future of these tech stocks based on the following trends.
A Fed cut and a deregulatory environment. I understand that everyone is certainly navigating the US China tensions, but I believe you're still able to sort of this is a highstakes game of poker and I believe that's how you've been able to make a lot of money since April. Doesn't it have some kind of worldwide effect if China is attempting to impose at least certain export restrictions, for instance, on rare earths?
I think it's all a negotiation, don't you think? It's all a game of poker after all and they support Nvidia and the United States. However, I see it as competition. Therefore, I don't see it negatively like some others do because at the end of the day, there is a super cycle occurring in China, a US super cycle.
You know what that is? Optimistic. We have Alibaba and BU. you know our AI3 Ives AI3 because I believe that's positive for China similar to what has happened in the US. So rather than seeing this as a conflict I see it as a global super cycle that is being led by the US and China and it won't be bad for the names.
How about a strategy for short-term investments only? Correct. Thus Paltor is a good firm with potentially poor stock. I'm not sure but it's trading at a huge multiple. If you're bullish and you look at a company that shouldn't be trading at that level like a palentor, how do you handle it? They yelled from the summits of the mountains at 100, loathed it at 12, and despised it at 50.
All right. One, the point then is that they have clearly missed this 15 bagger. Because I think that if you only look at one-year PE value, you miss out on every transformational growth stock. I think Palanteer will be worth a trillion dollars in the next 2 or 3 years. In the past 20 years, you have missed every stock with transformative growth.
You must therefore be able to watch out. However, I understand that these things are not visible in the spreadsheets. However, as someone who travels the world, I consider Palanteer to be one of the pioneers of this AI revolution. You know, you've been touring about the area. Of course, we have been discussing the China tech and AI race and similar topics a lot.
What similarities or distinctions do you think exist between the US? Indeed, I believe that if I simply look at history, the last skepticism may have occurred four or 3 years ago and now the winners are in memory, infrastructure, or energy. Because the truth is that the environment is becoming deregulatory, and you can't stop the trend.
They're spending trillions. It's all subjective. So you could argue about the value of some of these names, but it's like, well, who are the second, third, and fourth derivative beneficiaries? In fact, I believe that the general feeling is rather good. I understand that you two are constantly talking, thus you will have some awkward moments.
However, that's all a part of this trip and I think tech stocks in China and the US will rise. Where do you think the gaps will be in the AI ecosystem that China is developing? for instance, from the foundaries to the designers to the end users. To put it another way, when you compare what we're witnessing outside of China, where do you see the opportunities?
Look, it's obvious that China is in control and head-on. And in the United States, that will be a chokeold. And for that reason, nuclear, by the way, is it nuclear? It will be for us. I think I think it's nuclear in my opinion. We have been really positive on Aqua because in my opinion it is a nuclear company.
Take a look at China where enormous innovation is taking place in fields like robots. You consider what will finally transpire with Huawei. Alibaba in my opinion is just a really misplaced name. We are quite optimistic about it because of this. Another is BU and I believe that China is currently seeing a huge wave of innovation.
Big tech isn't the only thing that matters in China. whether it's on mobile or auto is also important. Therefore, I believe that investors throughout the world are willing to take a chance on the Chinese market at this time. We've been navigating this US battle and I get that, but you can't allow it stop you from embracing the fourth industrial revolution.
That basically means that the bulls and bears meet at the cafe if you're watching the celebration outside via the windows around 6:00 a.m. The night was much better for the bulls than the bears. The point then is that it supports my assessment of our current situation. Avoid getting in front of that train.
Yes. Is it preferable for China to concentrate on these well-known beta companies when discussing companies like Alibaba and BU? Or do you now view them as scammers as a US investor? For me, it's about China's huge tech at the moment. It's still massively oversold in my opinion. Of course, there has been some recovery, but from my perspective, investors are not seeing the potential benefits for Alibaba, BYU, and JD.
Yes. Additionally, I believe that these businesses are changing. You know, in a year or two, a firm that makes cars today might become a mobility company. Big tech in China, in my opinion, remains the main focus from a US standpoint. After that, you consider the derivatives as this develops on the memory side and other fronts.
You visit the Asia-Pacific region on multiple occasions during the year. Do you find that your trips differ significantly from one another? What kind of delta are you seeing on the ground? I would say that there was a lot more anxiety a few months ago. All right, the question now is who should I invest in?
What have I been missing? Where should I go? Therefore, I believe that this mindset is much more prevalent worldwide because look, I believe investors are realizing that these trends are unstoppable. US and Chinese tech are the largest beneficiaries when you have major tech spending, $350 billion and likely spending $450 billion in capital expenditures next year.
Sovereigns from all over the world are now beginning to get involved, including the Middle East, the UK, and others.
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