저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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중국 경제 붕괴 우려를 중심으로 한 거시 진단 영상이다. 결론: 중국 경제는 인구 감소·고령화와 성장 동력 둔화로 구조적 위기에 직면해 있으며, 향후 25일 내 붕괴 가능성을 강조한다. 인구 문제: 중국 인구는 1가구 1자녀 정책으로 급속히 고령화되었고, 2100년까지 약 50% 감소하는 전망이 제시되었다. 저성장 인구 구조에서는 경제가 재편되어야 하며, 이민이나 동남아·아프리카로의 해외 인구 확장 전략도 한계가 있다. 성장률 둔화: 중국은 연 6% 성장 목표를 제시하지만 2022년 2분기 성장률은 0.4%에 그쳤다. 2%도 중국 규모에서는 지속 불가능한 수준으로 평가된다. 금융 위기 조짐: 농촌은행들이 4월 인출을 동결해 예금자 항의가 이어졌고, 사복 경찰의 폭행과 탱크 투입 영상이 확산되었다. 발언자는 이를 2008년 금융위기 성격에 가깝다고 본다. 산업별 지표: 제조업 성장률은 2008년 25%에서 2022년 6%로 하락했다. 부동산은 2021년 약 15억 평방미터 판매에서 2022년 약 12.5억으로 첫 감소가 전망되며 GDP의 약 7%를 차지한다. 금융서비스(GDP의 약 8%)는 58조 달러 자산에서 연 7,000억 달러 이익을 내지만 실물 둔화에 연동되어 흔들린다. 정책·리스크: 중국 정부는 봉쇄 및 통제로 대응할 가능성이 있으며, 자산 버블(부동산 버블 붕괴 진행)과 다중 리스크가 동시 진행 중이다. 발언자는 중앙계획의 장기 투자 강점이 있으나 핵심 성장 엔진의 부재가 근본 문제라고 본다. 역사적 교훈: 명나라 시대 해상 금지령으로 중국이 세계 무역에서 고립되어 서구에 뒤처진 사례를 언급하며, 권위주의적 봉쇄 정책이 경제 침체를 심화시킬 수 있다고 경고한다. 출연자 전망: 중국 경제의 구조적 쇠퇴와 사회 불안정 확대를 예상하며, 방역 봉쇄 정책의 실효성에 대해 회의적이다.
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jason you just mentioned it why is the chinese capital markets in difficulty nobody knows what the long-term earnings are how do you forecast it it's not simple anymore it's not a model it's not an interest rate it's not a discounted set of cash right and so that's how they need to refactor themselves they need to have a much larger population if you don't have that you have to figure out how to do it with immigration if you don't have that what china has done is they've tried to go to southeast asia and to africa and they've tried to create that synthetic form of a growing pyramid right now that can work as long as the balance sheet of the country supports that because ultimately you're still talking about moving money offshore okay so i think they're in a little bit of a they're in a pretty difficult spot at a very macro level china has one massive massive massive problem which is one of population it's hard to get an accurate count but it is an aggressively aging population which was the result of the one giant the one child policy for a very long time china has sort of been on their heels trying to adapt that policy but really the the last data i saw i tweeted this out it was a little while ago nixon may be hard for you to find in my twitter feed but it was a projection of china's population which essentially showed it contracting by almost 50 percent by 2100 so in the in so that's a really really bad situation now when you have a slowing population then the economy has to morph why is that when you have a young population so for example take what china was 20 years ago when it entered the wto or what india is today when you have lots of thoughts of young people you can on ramp them into economically productive activities like manufacturing the problem when those folks accumulate middle class income and wealth is that they age out of those kinds of jobs like they did in america and what we seek are services and service level jobs and you spend more money you spend it in a different way so as populations age your economy has to turn over unless you have a large bulwark of young people that is constantly growing to take up more of the slack the economic slack to pay for these folks who have different lifestyles more savings and different needs specifically healthcare that's china's enormously big problem so when you see them talking about six percent gdp targets and you think how does a country that big even grow at six percent it's because they're reverse engineering for what they need to create economic vibrancy in that country and so when you start to look at two percent which in america you'd say two percent's great we would like high-fiving each other for two percent uh that's not a sustainable level of growth for what's happening inside that country it does not create enough of expansion economically to cover all these folks that is a really really big issue so as that happens i think what we need to do is figure out how to be competitive now this goes all the way back to our first conversation subsidies don't make us more competitive things that governments can do to make us more competitive are long-term drawn out tax incentives that change the earnings capacity of companies why because in the capital markets reward those businesses china's in chaos right now apparently in terms of slowing economic growth bank protests mortgage protests exactly what i predicted last year when you guys were talking about china was going to dunk on us and i said you know it's very hard to run these authoritarian countries and the citizens like to protest when they get the short end of the stick and here we go chinese economy is growing very slowly they were going to do five and a half percent this year they were only point four percent in q2 covert has a lot to do with this but there's been a series of bank protests and uh the media has been trying to figure out exactly what's going on here to just set the stage here rural banks in china uh in a couple of provinces froze a bunch of people's uh withdrawals in april okay sounds like the crypto uh contagion in many ways they had been offering unusually high interest rates also sounding like the d5 uh griff going on here i think it's more like 2008 jason i think the financial i think it's more like the financial crisis in 2008 that was driven by the real over the last 30 years right the chinese economy grew from 318 billion to in 1990 to 10 and a half trillion in uh 2020 right incredible growth gdp per capita you know grew uh kind of in a similar ratio right now from 318 bucks per person to 12 500 and 30 years i mean really unprecedented in the history of humanity china now accounts for 20 of global gdp from less than 2 percent 1990.
now if you look at historically what drove that growth we all talk about manufacturing right manufacturing counts for about a third of the economy and manufacturing as a sector was growing in china 25 year-over-year in 2008 and then um only grew six percent in 2022 it's like basically you know kind of reaching an all-time low in recent years so that's historically been the driver for growth of this economy and so much of the um you know the the the bargain between the people and the chinese communist party has been keep giving us a better life keep growing our economy keep giving us more housing more stuff more food more safety more security we'll support the ccp and the challenge that the ccp is having is that a lot of that growth the core growth engine is starting to slow so manufacturing is slowing then real estate was growing and so real estate accounts for seven percent of the chinese economy and i've got a good stat for you guys here in 2005 uh 250 million square meters of real estate was sold in china in 2021 1.5 billion was sold every year it's been incrementing so the amount of real estate that's being produced and sold was increasing like crazy this year it's collapsed so it's all it's down like you know forecast to be about 1.25 billion now so the first decline in real estate building and sales so that part of the driver of the economy in china is now collapsing and then the financial services sector accounts for eight percent of the economy and that's been growing because it's leveraged off manufacturing and real estate and all the capital that's flown in all of which is slowing down and stopping you know there's 58 trillion dollars of assets in china generating about 700 billion dollars of annual profits for the financial services industry insurance banking lending and so on so a lot of the conflict and the things that are starting to fall apart which may just be the tip of the iceberg is a function of a fundamentally slowing economy and the forecast and the outlook for an economy that doesn't have the drivers it's had historically and things are starting to come off the wheels are starting to come off a bit and so you know look the advantage they have is central planning long-term investments being able to kind of be thoughtful about this but in order to do that there's certainly going to be a need for the ccp to keep people in line as some of the long-term bets hopefully play out for them as they would say in order to do that they're going to have lockdowns and other sorts of mechanisms of regulatory control over the people but really this could be the beginning of some of the unwinding and real concern about you know is there a core economic growth engine in china that can save them and what will it be bubble yes they've got their own real estate bubble which is collapsing there correct and so there's there's multiple things going on at once the authorities haven't said how much money is frozen uh protesters claim is billions of won but it's hundreds of millions in the u.s after weeks without a resolution customers have been began protesting plainclothes thugs have been hitting and kicking the protesters and as of wednesday a video went viral of the ccp bringing in tanks to protect the banks very uh evocative of tiananmen square i think it's about 500 years ago there was a chinese emperor who banned shipbuilding and banning having a navy and because of that china shut itself off from global trade and it fell well behind the west which then explored and captured the new world there's this question about you know the chinese chinese culture and civilization was much more advanced than the west than europe a thousand years ago but basically it fell behind and a big reason is because this unilateral decision by one emperor to basically close themselves off from the rest of the world so you have to wonder does this autocratic move by g basically doom their economy to a recession it seems like they're not learning from our experience these lockdowns didn't work i mean you can't stop the virus it's eventually going to get out even i saw biden got the virus this week i mean it's out
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