Fundstrat's Tom Lee: Uncertainty about Iran's reaction is an overhang that markets are waiting on

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이란 관련 미국 폭격 이후 시장이 예상보다 견조함을 스트레스 테스트 통과로 해석하며, 연말까지 주식이 잘 갈 것이라 봄. 유가가 급등하지 않으면 해협 봉쇄 위험이 낮다고 판단. 연준 비둘기파 기울기와 관세·규제 가시성 개선, 기관 현금 대기 자금을 근거로 강세 전망. 2021식 투기 조짐은 있으나 기관은 아직 조심스럽고 개인(로빈후드) 중심이라 아직 과열은 아니라는 입장.

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01. Welcome back. Stocks near some session highs. Every sector currently green except energy, led by consumer discretionary this morning. Joining us here at Post 9 is Tom Lee, Fundstrat Global Advisors head of research and Fundstrat Capital Chief Investment Officer, also a CNBC contributor. Tom, it's good to have you.

02. Welcome. Talk about confounding expectations. What'd you say? What do you make of this morning's action? Well, you know, in some ways it's not a surprise cuz as you know, like Art Cashin had the adage "Sell the buildup, buy the invasion." And I think today is an example of that that markets were kind of already nervous and anxious and we already saw de-risking and the VIX was already elevated, so I I think in some ways this is probably pretty typical.

03. Does it change your call for the rest of the year at all? I mean, do you think it displaces any other priorities or has any effect on bill passage or how that might get constructed? I I In In some ways it actually strengthens the case for stocks to do better into year end because at the start of this year we would said "US bombing a nuclear facility is a black swan.

04. Uh oil would be 120, stocks should be down 10%, and then we have the event and oil is not really surging and stocks are up, so I'd almost say that you put another stress test into the market. We've seen it pass it and I think it means stocks should do pretty well into year end. Do you think war moves remains a risk?

05. Uh I do, but you know, Brian Sullivan was off camera was mentioning a lot of strategic reasons why that may not be the case. I'm sure he's going to have his views, but um I would say I'm watching oil and if oil isn't surging, then I think it just means that the risk of straight The straits being closed is lower.

06. I guess when you think about the impact for US stocks and bonds and the dollar, it comes down to growth and inflation expectations. And And the key, Tom, is whether either of those things have changed in light of recent geopolitical events. Uh yeah, and as you know, core CPI doesn't include energy. And as you know, when the ECB looks at at core inflation, they exclude housing.

07. Housing is not part of ECB's core CPI and they're cutting. If you calculated US CPI on the same exact basis, it's lower than Europe. So, I I do think there should be a dovish tilt towards the Fed or that it that's the upside opportunity into year-end as well. Tom, there seems to be a speculative nature to the market that's creeping in again.

08. I wonder if it's concern. When I say that, I'm talking about the reception of some of the IPOs. I mean, granted, well well very well received, but Circles now got a $62 billion market value, Coreweave almost 90 billion. You got a lot of SPACs coming back. I don't know if you've seen it. Even Chamath is coming back with some SPACs.

09. Any concern to you or not? Um it is. It means those are echoes of 2021. Which is uh some stocks get fantastically bizarre valuations and I'm not naming any. And to name some? And then there is signs of speculation. And uh but the one thing that was true in 2021 that's not true now is when I meet with fund managers, in 2021 they said there was no stock they could buy because everything was expensive.

10. That's actually not true anymore. Now now the people I talk to are saying, "Look, the numbers have been better and numbers are going up, but the macro is making them uncertain. So, there's actually a lot less risk-taking by institutional investors." So, you I mean, to the extent a speculative part of the market is something you monitor, it's not hitting a level that that is that concerning to you.

11. Yeah, I mean, to me, David, it's a sign that the cohort that is speculating are the ones that bought the dip in April. As you know, it was retail, the Robinhood community, that was buying in April when institutions were selling and raising cash and So, it's the same crew now that is buying you know, the circles at one times assets under management, which is tremendous, but it it's not speculation to me yet because I I'd say high net worth is not really that invested and institutions are still pretty cautious.

12. But what what is the underlying view that you have that makes you bullish? Is it that the economy is hanging in? Is it that earnings are picking up? And what what's the fundamental reason? I think when we look at macro on the margin, things are better. We have better visibility on tariffs into 2026.

13. We have regular regulation and tax like legislation visibility into 2026. I think the Fed is now being questioned about their unwillingness to cut. I mean, it was apparent like five out of the 10 questions during the press conference were about that exact question. So, there's a dovish Fed. I know consumers are overly cautious right now, but as you know, inflation expectations are far above CPI.

14. That's a positive surprise if if delivered inflation's lower. And then businesses have been really resilient, you know, I mean, I I think actually the economy might be weakening, but earnings have been better. So, overall, it with all the cash on the sidelines, I mean, I I'd say this should we should be quite bullish actually. Tom, we'll talk again soon. Thanks. Yeah, thanks Tom.