저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
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피터 린치의 투자 원칙 5가지를 소개한다: 1)보유 종목을 이해할 것(10살에게 2분 내 설명 가능해야 함) 2)유행주(fad stock) 회피 3)경제 전망 예측 시도 말 것, 미시경제(기업) 집중 4)분산투자 과잉 지양 5)장기 보유와 텐배거 추구. 근거로 린치 운용 연평균 수익률 29.2%(S&P500 대비 2배 이상), 2020~2021 스팩 지수 약 500→1,000 급등 후 반토막 사례, 던킨도너츠 등 지루한 종목의 큰 수익을 든다.
다듬은 글
for those of you that may not be familiar Peter Lynch is one of the most successful investors of all time Lynch managed the legendary mellin fund at Fidelity the fund earned an annualized return of 29.2% during his time running it more than double what the SNP 500 earned during that time now let's get into the Five Lessons and principles from Peter Lynch that you can start applying to your own investing today the first lesson from studying Peter Lynch is the concept of know what you own this is one of the single biggest pieces of advice from Peter Lynch that investors need to take to heart when you first hear this principle of know what you own you may be saying duh that's so obvious however you may be surprised to learn that a lot of investors don't really have a clue about what they own and why they own it when they buy a certain stock Lynch says that if you were to really press someone on why they bought a particular stock their answer would likely be because this this sucker is going up Peter Lynch likes to talk about how when someone is looking to buy a new Appliance for their kitchen they will do a ton of research they'll go online and learn about that Appliance they will read hundreds of reviews from customers and they will go to multiple stores and compare prices to make sure they're getting the most value for their money however Lynch also talks about how that same person will hear someone talk about a stock on the bus or on the subway and then go out and put a significant amount of their net worth into that stock on the same day all without doing any of their own research Peter Lynch told that story during the 1990s but it still applies today the only change I would make is instead of hearing that tip on the subway they hear it here on YouTube it's interesting how people's behaviors towards the stock market don't really change in this regard people in the 1920s used to get stock tips from the Sho shine boy then in the 1970s and 1980s it was magazines then in the early 2000s it was the internet now in 2024 one of the biggest places people go for stock tips is right here on YouTube you should use the information received as a starting point to do your own research instead of completely basing your investment decision on it it's important to do your own research to truly know what you own and why you own it so what exactly does it mean to quote know what you own Peter Lynch say says you should have a deep enough understanding of the stock and why you own it to be able to explain it to a 10-year-old in 2 minutes or less if you can't explain why you bought the stock to a 10-year-old in 2 minutes or less you simply shouldn't own that stock this leads us to the next piece of advice from Peter Lynch this advice is extremely relevant in today's market avoid owning what are referred to as fad stocks fad stocks are stocks solely based on the current Trend or activity without considering the genuine Outlook of the stock or the substantial factors driving the trend and this popularity usually has to do with growth projections years into the future there's usually a lot of hype and excitement around the stocks and the industry all of this excitement results in high stock prices that over time will turn out to be unsustainable an interesting thing I learned from Peter Lynch is how you usually want to avoid areas of the stock market that are getting a ton of attention the reason being that it's hard to find any undervalued stocks if investors are super excited about a particular area of the stock market a very recent example of an investing fad was spaxx it seemed like there was a period of time in the back half of 2020 and the first part of 2021 when spaxs were some of the hottest stocks it seemed like all Spa stocks were shooting up in value regardless of whether or not the underlying business was actually good take a take a look at the index that measures the return of spaxs in October 2020 the index was around 500 just a few months later in February 2021 the index was at nearly 1,000 this means that the value of spa stocks had nearly doubled in just four short months there is no way that the underlying value of these businesses had doubled in that same period of time this is an example of a fad stock these stocks became super popular and their stock price prices shot up as a result just like fads when it comes to clothing what is cool now won't necessarily be cool forever look at what happened to the value of the index once investors started to lose interest in spaxs spaxs consistently declined in price and people that invested in the peak of The Fad lost a ton of money the spa index has been cut in half since its peak in February 2021 there will always be new fads when it comes to investing Peter Lynch has invested through countless throughout history he says it's virtually impossible to make money investing in them instead he says it's better to invest in the opposite of fad stocks boring stocks some of his best investments were made in companies considered boring to the stock market at the time one of Lynch's greatest Investments of all time was the coffee shop chain Dunkin Donuts while a company like Dunkin Donuts will likely never be a hot stock for investors that doesn't mean it can't make you rich this quote boring stock made Peter Lynch and his investors tens of millions of dollars as 10 times from when he bought it in investing it's much better to make money than be cool and invest in fad stocks the next piece of advice from Peter Lynch is truly a gem it definitely goes against conventional investing wisdom but hey you can't generate 30% annual returns like Lynch by following conventional wisdom this piece of advice is don't try to predict the economy Lynch has a quote that all investors need to take to heart if you spend 13 minutes a year on economics you wasted 10 minutes that's definitely an attention grabbing statement and one of my personal favorite quotes in all of investing he went on to clarify what he meant it's feudal to predict the economy interest rates and the stock market however this is the complete opposite of how virtually every investor operates they try to predict what going to happen to the economy and then jump in and out of stocks based on that view of the economy one of the biggest things I've learned from studying Lynch is the importance of ignoring macroeconomics and instead focusing on microeconomics macroeconomics are things like whether the economy is going to grow this year and by how much what inflation is going to do and where interest rates are going to go Lynch makes the argument that these things would certainly be useful to know but at the end of the day they are unknowable instead focus on the microeconomic facts of the company take Coca-Cola for example what you should be looking at is whether Coca-Cola is taking market share whether the brand has pricing power and what the company is doing with all the cash it generates these are the things you as an investor should be spending your time thinking about next up on our list of lessons from Peter Lynch is the concept of avoiding what he refers to as diversification this ter term diversification was coined in his famous book one up on Wall Street conventional investing wisdom states that investors should have a diversified portfolio and this is defined as having a variety of stocks in a variety of Industries many investors that take this conventional approach think that investors should have a portfolio that consists of stocks from each of the different sectors of the economy additionally no matter how much an investor likes a certain stock it shouldn't make up more than just a few percentage points of their overall portfolio Peter Lynch is not one for conventional investing wisdom one of the core elements of Peter Lynch's strategy is avoiding the so-called diversification let's say we have an investor named Kelly Kelly has a portfolio of 10 to 15 stocks and because Kelly watches a ton of a filk invest videos he knows Peter Lynch's investing principles and used them to select these stocks which as a side note should serve as a reminder to subscribe to the channel if you aren't already because I know you want to become a better investor but anyways back to Kelly Kelly may feel pressure from conventional investing wisdom to add quote exposure to his portfolio maybe Kelly doesn't own any energy or software stocks and his portfolio doesn't have any bonds or gold portfolio diversification Theory would state that Kelly needs to add these to his portfolio however what if Kelly can can't find any attractive investments in these areas Kelly deciding to add these investments just for portfolio diversification sake would be an example of diversification at work if 20 30% of Kelly's Investments are in unattractive stocks just because he followed conventional Theory how could he expect to generate strong investment results this ties into lesson number five on our list which is a two-parter hold for the long term focus on 10 Baggers the reason why conventional wisdom advocates for diversification is because it makes for a less volatile portfolio however Peter Lynch has extensively talked about how in order to outperform the market you as an investor must be focused on the long term Peter Lynch has even went as far as to say that it is impossible to predict what a stock is going to do over the next three months or even a year he said this in the 1990s and it seems like people's time Horizons have gotten even shorter just look here on YouTube as an example there are people who claim to know what a stock is going to do over the next month week or even in some cases the very next day however Lynch is adamant that this is no way to actually outperform the market the reason for this is because a Stock's price eventually follows its growth in earnings Over time however in the mean time the stock price can fluctuate greatly this means that if you are able to invest in a company that will double its earnings over the next 5 years that means that a stock price should double over that same period since the company is now making double in earnings this logic makes a ton of sense however in between now and then the stock price will move around dramatically for a variety of reasons all of these reasons are completely random and unpredictable instead Lynch talks about how it's much better to focus on something much more predictable the company's ability to grow its earnings over time because the stock price will eventually follow suit this leads us to the second part of this lesson focus on what Peter Lynch refers to as 10 Baggers 10 bagger are an Investor's dream stocks that increase by a factor of 10 over the time you hold them in order to have a 10 bagger in your portfolio you have to avoid one big mistake that is common for investors selling a stock too early this is where having a long-term investing Horizon directly relates to finding 10 Baggers in your portfolio many investors will buy a stock and see the price go up 1020 or even 30% they will be satisfied with that gain and sell their stock only to watch the stock price double triple and eventually rise 10 times from the price that they originally bought it at most investors make the mistake of doing all the hard work of identifying a great stock but don't have the patience and conviction to let it grow over time this is where one of my all-time favorite Peter Lynch quotes comes into play selling your winners and buying your losers is like Watering your weeds and cutting your flowers this quote is so good that the investing King himself Warren Buffett actually called Peter Lynch one night to ask him for permission to include it in his legendary birkshire Hathaway annual report what Lynch is saying here is that it is a mistake to sell a stock just because the price has increased if the stock still has significant Room to Grow it's far better to keep that great company in your portfolio so there we have it remember these five lessons from Peter Lynch one know what you own if you don't know what you own odds are you will Panic sell the first time the stock price Falls investing in businesses you don't understand is asking for trouble two avoid fad stocks it's hard to make a lot of money buying the same hot stocks as other people always be skeptical of of stocks that are promising large amounts of growth well into the future and are trading at prices that incorporate some very optimistic projections instead some of the best investments come from stocks that aren't getting a ton of attention three don't try to predict the economy I would bet that economists are some of the highest IQ people in the world even so that doesn't mean collectively they are good at accurately predicting the economy understand that the economy is impossible to predict with a high degree of certainty remember instead of focusing on macroeconomics focus on microeconomics of companies four avoid diversification when you think about it it doesn't make a ton of sense to buy stocks you don't understand for the sake of having a diversified portfolio it's hard to outperform the market following conventional wisdom five hold for the long-term and focus on 10 Baggers the best performing investors of all time Peter Lynch Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger all say that predicting stock prices is impossible in the short term these guys are all extremely brilliant and have insanely high IQ if they admit that they can't predict the movement of stock prices in the short term why should anyone else actually think they can if you found this video insightful don't forget to like share and subscribe thank you for joining us today until next time stay curious stay informed and happy investing
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