저자: 미상 · 외국인
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피터 린치 『Beating the Street』의 핵심 5가지 교훈을 소개: 장기적으로 주식이 채권·예금을 크게 앞선다(주식 연 약 10% vs 채권 실질 약 2.1%), 주식 투자는 과학·예술·발품의 결합, 이익선(earnings line)과 PE 기준으로 매수 기회 판단(메타 예시), 애널리스트 무관심 종목·창업자 지분 높은 종목 발굴, 경쟁 약화된 나쁜 산업 속 강한 기업 선택. 특정 종목 매수·매도 추천은 없음.
다듬은 글
in today's video we are going to learn about the key takeaway from the book beating the street by Peter Lynch number one is that you should focus on the even bigger picture imagine that you are living in Belgium or some other country with seasonal weather conditions one day in the winter the temperature suddenly drops below 0° C people start to panic it was 20° just a couple of months ago what is happening is it the beginning of the next ice age the media starts to produce daily headlines about how polar bears could die from the cold how electricity will stop working and how even hell may eventually freeze if this drop in temperature continues silly scenario you say absolutely but it's not much different from this one which has happened on multiple occasions imagine that you are living in a country with a stock market which price is determined by a group of emotional human beings one day after a bull market stocks suddenly drop 15% from their previous High people start to panic the Dow Jones was 27,000 just a couple of months ago what is happening is it the beginning of the end of the financial system as we know it the media starts to produce daily headlines about how stocks may eventually become worthless pieces of paper and how investors should switch to money in the bank and bonds if they don't want to risk personal bankruptcy equally silly yet this is a reoccurring thing from which we don't seem to learn very fast just like with the weather stocks go through numerous Cycles this is a natural thing as the price of the market is determined by You Me and a bunch of other emotional characters that swing from optimistic to pessimistic and then back again Peter Lynch says that the key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them the stomach determines the fate of the stock picker not the head whenever Peter Lynch himself feels the itch to sell all his stocks and prepare for the worst he likes to remind himself of the even bigger picture the even bigger picture is that during the last 30 years stocks have outperformed bonds by almost 3.6% per year and let's not even discuss money in bank accounts here despite the thousands of reasons that we've seen that the financial world may come to an end stocks have been returning on average 10% annually 1% per year versus 2.1 1% per year for bonds after inflation besides if total disaster actually does strike money in the bank will be just as useless as stock certificates but if disaster doesn't strike which is a much more likely scenario the stock picker will be the Richer man in the long run at number two we have that making money in stocks is a combination of science art and leg workor so it's no secret that Peter Lynch became such a successful fund manager at fidelity mellan by investing in stocks but how did he do it he attributes his success to a combination of science art and leg workk stock picking is partly a science as great opportunities can be found by investigating the numbers that are presented in a company's financial statements Peter Lynch has many such quantitative factors that he likes to see and he presents some of them in beating the street growing sales and earnings a reasonable price low debt share BuyBacks Etc but if this was the only ingredient in picking great stocks Scholars and accountants would be the richest people on the planet which they aren't successful investing is also partly an art in the long run a stock will be priced fairly relative to how its earnings are developing the investor must understand what has been able to drive earnings in the past and triggers that can cause them to grow in the future too a good way to make sure that you have a correct hunch is this if you are prepared to invest in a company then you ought to be able to explain why in simple language that a fifth grader could understand and quickly enough so the fifth grader won't get bored the last factor is leg work stay busy Peter Lynch himself visited hundreds of companies per year and read even more annual reports he says that for every 10 companies you investigate you'll find one where the story is better than the market is currently expressing he also emphasizes that when investigating an opportunity you typically stumble across another one Peter Lynch's favorite question when interviewing cosos was this are there any other companies that you are impressed with when the CEO of one company talks fondly of a competitor in the same industry you've probably found yourself a good deal number three use the earnings line to identify buying opportunities first sales and earnings must be moving second buy at a reasonable price in beating the street Peter Lynch gives an interesting tip on how to quickly evaluate if the price of a stock is fair or not he says that one can identify an opportunity by looking at the earnings line of a company in the long run the development of a stock will resemble the development of its earnings whenever we have reason to believe that the price of a stock is lower than what is fair compared to its earnings and expected growth rate we have a buying opportunity and if the reverse is true we should probably sell let's take meta as an example here during the years 2008 to 2013 meta's earnings increased from $4.2 billion to 12.7 billion which is equal to a yearly growth of 25% let's say that we had reason to believe that meta could continue this strong growth as a rule of thumb Peter Lynch thinks that a stock should sell at a PE below its yearly growth rate so whenever the stock of meta drops below a PE of 25 we consider at a buy the earnings line represents what the value of the company should be if the stock was priced at 25 times its earnings meta could be considered a buy when the price of the stock dropped below the earnings line there's more science art and leg work to be added before we can decide whether meta is worthy of our money or not if you're loving this video so far and want more content like this make sure to subscribe and comment below okay back to our discussion number four search for overlooked stocks with strong owners it pays to be a contar when it comes to investing it can be very profitable to go to places where other fund managers and investors are afraid to invest look for companies that aren't followed by many analysts in beating the street Peter Lynch lists many of his investing principles and Peter's principal number 18 is when even the analysts are bored it's time to start buying this typically results in a lower price than warranted moreover an overlooked company is usually favorable from other perspectives as well for one thing the largest share owners are usually still the founders of the company and the top management this type of skin in the game is great for the investor you can rest assured that your interest and that of the management are aligned furthermore the owners of the business are typically more well educated about the industry with overlooked companies what you want to see are owners that have succeeded with similar businesses before what you don't want to see is that the largest five owners of the business are insurance companies or other large institutional players these people rarely know much about the industry and they probably don't care much about the company either as it most likely will represent only a small fraction of their total Capital under management so look for companies that Wall Street has missed and where the owners are well invested and capable of running running such a business number five look for great companies in lousy Industries now a quick quiz where would you rather invest your money today one internet and direct marketing retail two oil gas and consumable fuels three life science four energy equipment and services five metals and Mining six software which ones did you pick according to research from fidelity.com 1 to three are the top three performing industries of The Last 5 Years while four to six are the worst performing ones Peter Lynch would probably shy away from the first group and instead Focus his leg work on the second one why because strong performance attracts competition everyone would like to start a business in the first of the three Industries while companies are dying like flies in the second three Peter Lynch recommends that you should buy the strongest company or companies in in Industries where the general opinion is that things have gone from bad to worse as competitors fall the market share of these companies will increase as will their profitability it won't take long before the stock price follows too if you want to learn about the five traits from Peter Lynch on how to outperform the market then click on the video showing now on your screen if you found this video insightful don't forget to like share and subscribe thank you for joining us today until next time stay curious stay informed and happy investing
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