저자: 워런버핏 · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 버핏·멍거는 개인의 시대적 행운과 능력 차이를 강조하며, 특정 종목·자산에 대한 단기 가격 예측은 하지 않는다. 출생 환경과 시대 운: 버핏은 미국 출생과 남성이라는 점이 큰 이점이었다고 말하며, 1929년 대공황 직후 태어나 주식 시장 침체기에 경쟁이 약했던 점을 행운으로 꼽았다. 미래 세대에 대한 견해: 오늘날 미국에서 태어난 아이가 확률적으로 역대 가장 운이 좋은 개인이며, 투자 분야에서도 기회가 있을 것이라고 장기적으로 낙관했다. 다만 과거 1950년대 무렵만큼 좋은 분야는 아닐 수 있다고 봤다. 경쟁 환경 변화: 멍거는 초기보다 경쟁이 강해졌다고 보며, 2008년 이후 높은 지능과 경험을 가진 투자 전문가가 많아졌다고 언급했다. 직업 선택 조언: 버핏과 멍거는 자신이 흥미를 느끼는 일을 찾고 그 일에 열정을 쏟는 것이 중요하다고 강조했다. 경쟁이 치열하고 자신에게 부족한 재능이 필요한 분야는 피하라고 조언했다. 학습 방법: 버핏은 23세 때 여러 석탄 회사 CEO들을 직접 찾아가 질문하며 산업을 학습했다고 소개했다. 특정 기업이 아닌 다른 기업 중 어디에 투자할지 묻는 방식으로 경제적 특성을 파악할 수 있다고 설명했다. 인재 채용 사례: 래리 버드가 에이전트 선택 시 다른 에이전트에게 추천을 물어 최적의 인물을 찾은 사례, 버핏이 도쿄 사업장 책임자를 여러 사람에게 추천받아 선임한 사례를 언급했다. 기타 일화: 버핏이 제너럴모터스(GM)를 주당 35달러에 사자고 멍거에게 말했으나 청력 문제로 멍거가 반응하지 않았다는 농담형 일화가 있었다.
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well I don't think it's as difficult to figure out competence as it may appear to you if you're 5 foot2 you don't have much of a future in the National Basketball League and if you're 95 years of age you probably shouldn't try and act the Romantic lead part in Hollywood and if you weigh 350 pounds you probably shouldn't try and dance the lead part in the bullo B and if you can hard count cards at all you probably shouldn't try and win chess tournaments playing blindfolder and so on and so on you're ruling out everything I want to do but competency is a relative is a relative concept and what a lot of us need including the one Speaking is what what I needed to get ahead was to compete against idiots and luckily there's a large Supply and Bill gross made recent comments that his generation of investors yourselves included owed a deal of their success to timing do you agree with Bill's comment and do you think a similar opportunity will provide itself to today's investors thank you yeah there's no question that being born in the United States uh was a huge huge huge advantage to me and as I point out in a recent article being born male was a big Advantage I would not have had the same opportunities in the investment or in in business World remotely uh that I've had uh if I'd been a female born in 1930 uh and the timing could have been a little better uh actually my dad was a security salesman and and and uh uh you know I was conceived in in uh uh November 1929 and if you remember the stocks had gone down dramatically at that time and there really wasn't anybody to call on uh for my dad and there wasn't any television at home or anything so here I am you know at uh so I feel myself very lucky uh that the uh crash of 1929 came along uh and that also provided a decade more than a decade of people who were very turned off well it was a decade of terrible business for quite a while and then a decade of or more of people that were turned off on stocks just as we sort of had a decade like that in the past decade going up to 2010 or so people that a lot of people that have gotten turned off by stock so that was that was a favorable environment um but the United States itself was was an incredibly favorable environment if I'd been born 5 years earlier I probably would have made more money but if I'd been born 10 or 15 years later I would have made probably less money but it I I I I envy the baby that's being born today in the United States I mean I think on a probability basis that's the luckiest individual that's ever been born and I think that they will do very well in life in all kinds of ways on a probably Illy basis uh better than existed when when I was born uh and I think they'll have opportunities to do very well in the investment field it may may not be as good uh field as as it was for me starting in 19 say 50 51 or thereabouts uh but it will be a very good field operate in the the person that has a passion for investing born today coming of age 20 years from now uh is likely in my view to do very well and to to live far better than we live today just as we live far better than John D rockerfeller lived uh uh many years ago Charlie well the competition was very weak in your early days and I don't think the competition is as weak now so I I think sure we got advantages from timing and uh and but I don't think that means there's nothing to be done ahead but Charlie in 2008 and N there were all kinds of high IQ yeah highly experienced investment professionals I mean thousands and thousands and thousands of them and you invested at the Daily Journal company and some equities at X that are worth what 3x or 4X hour or something like that that's right yeah well I call that opportunity but maybe routine to him but yeah but but I sat for a lot of years before I did it but it still became available oh yes I I but you were drowning in Opportunities when I first knew you you were not waiting for I wasn't drowning in money unfortunately no well you what you laed was money yeah well now we got money and no ideas okay station station 10 station 10 do we have a station 10 let's take a look should be right over there hi hi my name is Dex string I'm from Stafford Virginia I'm 30 years old and I'm wondering what my life will be like in a few years let alone 50 years from now my question for both Mr Buffett and Mr Munger is how do you think you've changed over the last 50 years and if you could communicate to yourself 50 years ago what would you tell them one piece of advice business or personal and how would you do in a way where your former self would actually heat it Charlie I'll let you answer that incidentally I'll trade your places so don't worry about future yeah we're basically so fashion that it we're boringly trit we think you ought to keep plugging along and stay rational and stay energetic and just all the old virtues still work and uh but find what you turn you on yeah you got to you got to work where you're turned on I don't know about Warren but I have never succeeded to any great extent in something I didn't like doing Charlie and I both started in the same grocery store and neither one of us are in the grocery business we were not going to be promoted either and even though you had the family name yeah my grandfather was right too oh it it's really I mean if you're lucky and Charlie and I were lucky in this respect we we well we were lucky to be in this country to started with but we we we we found things we like to do very early in life and then we you know we pushed very hard in doing those things but we were enjoying it while we while we did it we have had so much fun running birkshire I mean it's it's almost sinful and and uh but we were lucky to you know I might my my dad happened to be in a business that he didn't find very interesting but I found very interesting and so when I would go down on Saturday there were a lot of books to read and You Know It uh it just flowed from a very early age and and Charlie found we found a way to atone by your for your sins and having so much fun you're giving all the money back well yeah but you give it all back whether you want to or not in the end that's true too I really connect with the idea not investing in Industries you can't fully understand being a young guy who has limit ability to code and who can't build robots Tech is certainly young guy who has limit ability to code and who can't build robots Tech is certainly not an industry I fully understand and yet these days the concept of Entrepreneurship is nearly synonymous with tech amongst people amongst people my age so my question question to you Mr Buffett is if you were 23 years old with entrepreneurial Tendencies what non-te industry would you start a business in and why I'd probably do just what I did when I was 23 um the uh you know I I would I would I would go in the investment business uh and and I would uh I would look at lots of companies and I would go and talk to lots of people and I would try to learn from them what I could about different Industries um one thing I did when I was 23 if I got interested in the coal business I would go out and see the CEOs of eight or 10 coal companies and the interesting thing was I I I never made appointments usually or anything I just dropped in but they they felt a fellow from Omaha who looked like me couldn't be too harmful so they they they'd always see me and I would I'd ask them a lot of questions but one question I'd always ask them two questions at the end I would ask them if they had to put all of their money into any Coal Company except their own and go away for 10 years and couldn't change it which one would it be and why and then I would say after I got an answer to that I would say and if it was part of that deal they had to sell short an equivalent amount of money uh with in one Coal Company which would it be and why and if I went around and talked to everybody in the coal business about that I would know more about the coal companies from an economic standpoint than any one of those managers probably would so I think there's lots of ways to learn about business you're not going to learn how to start another Facebook or Google that way but you can you can learn a lot about the economic characteristics of companies by reading personal contact you do have to have you have to have a real curiosity about it I mean you I don't think you can do it because your mother's telling you to do it or something of the sort I think you really it really has to turn you on and I mean what could turn you on we going around asking questions about coal companies so yeah it maybe be a little odd too but that's what I would do and I might in the process of doing that find some industry that particularly interested me in my case the insurance industry did uh and and you might become very well equipped even perhaps to start your own insurance company but perhaps to uh pick the most logical one to go to work for if you just keep learning things something will come along that that you'll find extremely useful uh to do I mean it but you've got to be open to it Charlie well you might try a version of the trick that Larry Bird used when he wanted an agent to negotiate his new contract he asked every agent why he should be selected and if he was not going to be selected whom the agent would recommend and since everybody recommended the same number two Choice Larry Larry Bird just hired him and negotiated the best contract in history there's a well there are a lot of tricks that people use we did the same thing as Solomon actually it was a Saturday morning yeah when I I call and you were there Charlie weren't you let sure uh I called in I don't know whether there was eight or 10 of the man I just gotten in there on Friday afternoon and now it's Saturday morning and we had to open for business Sunday night in Tokyo and I had to have somebody to run the place so I called in eight people and I said you know who beside you would be the ideal person to run this and why uh one guy told me that there was nobody compared to him he was gone from the firm within a few months but uh but the uh it's not a bad system to use it um you can you can really learn a lot just by asking I mean starting to sound a little about like a yogi be quote or something but it is it is literally true that you if you talk to enough people about something they know something about and people like to talk you know and uh uh you know here we are talking ourselves they it and and you just have to be open to it and and you will find you will find your spot uh uh you may not find it the first day or the week or month but you'll find what fascinates you I was very lucky because I found what fascinated me when I was seven or eight years of age but but uh uh you know some people find Chester music you know fascinates them when they're four or five if you're lucky you find it early and and sometimes it takes you longer but you'll find it if it's a very competitive business and plainly requires qualities that you lack it should probably be avoided like when I was at celtech I took thermodynamics and Homer Joe Stewart who was a genius taught the course and it was perfectly appear to me that no amount of time or effort would turn me into a homer Joe Stewart who was utterly impossibly more talented than I could be gave up I immediately decided I wasn't going to try and be a professor of thermodynamics at Cal Tech and and I've done that with field after field and pretty soon there was only one or two left yeah yeah I had a similar experience in athletics I probably shouldn't tell you this one Charlie having a little trouble there on his last two words uh um I got a little worried about Charlie don't know whether I should talk about this but uh I thought maybe he was losing his hearing and I didn't want to confront him with it I mean we've been Palace for a long time so I went to the doctor and I said do I've got this wonderful partner but I think maybe his hearing is going on him and I don't want to talk to him about it I mean how do you say that to somebody you've known that long and what should I do he says well you stand across the room talk to him in a normal course of tone of voice and let me know what happens so the next time I was with Charlie I stood across the room and I said Charlie I think we ought to buy General Motors at 35 do you agree not a flicker I go halfway across the room said Charlie I think we ought to buy General Motors at 35 do you agree nothing get right next to him in his ear Charlie I think we ought to buy General Motors at 35 do you agree he said for the third time yes
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