저자: CathieWood,출연자소속ARKInvest · 외국인
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ARK Invest는 혁신 기술 5개 플랫폼(DNA 시퀀싱, 에너지 저장, 로보틱스, AI, 블록체인)에 집중하며, 향후 5~10년간 금융시장이 이 분야에서 큰 변화를 맞을 것이라 주장. 플랫폼 기반 분석 필요성: 기술이 산업 경계를 허물면서 기존 섹터별 애널리스트 방식으로는 Tesla 같은 기업 가치평가가 어렵다고 주장. 전기차/테슬라: Tesla 5년 목표주가 7,000달러(2024년 말 기준, 10개 시나리오 확률가중), 극단적 낙관 시 15,000달러. 근거는 시장점유율 상승(17%→18%), 배터리 비용 경쟁사 대비 3~4년 우위, 자체 AI칩, 자율주행 택시 네트워크(매출총이익률 약 80%, 자동차는 20~30%). 자율주행 가능성은 2~3년 내 25% 확률로 가정. 금융주: 장단기 금리차 역전이 지속될 것으로 보며 은행 순이자마진에 부정적. 역전은 성장기에 더 심했다는 과거 데이터 제시. 바이오/유전자편집: CRISPR 관련 3개 기업(특허 보유)의 시가총액이 현재 50억 달러 미만으로 과소평가되었다고 주장, 단일유전자 질환 치료 로열티 시장 750억 달러 전망. 임상 성공 시 주가 반응 전 선매수 권고. 핀테크/소셜: 벤모 등 핀테크 채택이 소셜미디어보다 빠르게 확산 중이라고 주장. 대상 자산 중 한국/국내 종목, 금, 비트코인 등에 대한 직접 방향 예측 발언은 확인되지 않음.
다듬은 글
the ceo and chief investment officer of ark invest a company which specializes in innovative and disruptive technology from 3d printing to genomics and even autonomous vehicles she looks for companies which are set to disrupt an entire industry and she's widely known as price target so tim had earlier mentioned this idea of actively managed etfs the ones that don't necessarily track just the s p or some broader index is it fair to characterize arc invest as one of those actively managed types etfs yes yes we trade practically every day so we're very active so what does that mean when you trade every day because there's this idea that passivity or index tracking is what etfs are all about they become synonymous but that's not necessarily the case right in 2013 i thought the same i didn't think etfs had anything to do with what i do and we started looking into the wrapper and found there was no reason as long as we were willing to disclose our holdings at the end of every day there's no reason we couldn't do an active etf so the five innovation platforms are dna sequencing that's foundational to find those mutations uh energy storage so the shift from the internal combustion engine to electric vehicles um robotics especially with collaborative robots which will be covered in sensors and able to work alongside human beings increasing the productivity of human beings artificial intelligence which is going to change the line item of well every line item of the income statement so every company every industry every sector is going to be transformed in fact a good good proof of concept there is salesforce.com about two years ago released einstein which is artificial intelligence as a service einstein um from zero two years ago maybe two and a half uh is now making 8.6 billion predictions per day for companies it's phenomenal and then blockchain technology is the fifth uh the fifth platform that we think is is going to be quite disruptive uh so they're going to transform every company and every industry here you can see the five innovation platforms are the biggest bubbles on this chart but there are other technologies each of the five is going to be multiple trillion dollars of market cap uh we believe in the financial markets during the next five to ten years uh you can see other technologies evolving with them innovation platforms what do we consider an innovation platform we center our research on something called wright's law wright's law is and you'll get this sense of exponential growth here wright's law says that for every cumulative doubling in units produced costs decline at a consistent rate mr wright derived this formula during the early days of airplane manufacturing and he noticed for every cumulative doubling in airplane in the number of airplanes produced costs declined at a consistent rate when costs decline at a consistent rate they tend to prices come down and unleash waves of demand that's what we're talking about when we talk about exponential growth uh you can see in the middle panel here that's electricity the the start of electricity and you can see how quickly it spread throughout the manufacturing sector in the united states the reason is technology is seeping into every sector so it's blurring the lines between and among sectors and the the five innovation platforms that we're focused on they're converging so we need analysts very comfortable with technology even in the healthcare field and the industrial field and we need them to their responsibilities to be broken out by innovation platform that platforms that cut across economic sectors so a stock like tesla now being analyzed in the traditional world by auto analysts which are analysts focusing on a very mature industry they're value analysts right so price to book dividend yield all of those metrics are important to them are going to find it difficult to to analyze a company that is not just an auto manufacturer but also a an artificial intelligence chip designer and an autonomous taxi platform provider which is a transportation as a service so we've got three analysts focused and collaborating on understanding how tesla is going to evolve during the next few years sam korres who does our robotics work autonomous vehicles are going to be robots he also does our energy storage work so he's very comfortable with battery technology probably i would say he's the financial industries expert on battery technology we have james wang who's focused on artificial intelligence he came out of nvidia which is the artificial intelligence chip company so he spent nine years there so great expertise and understands how significant tesla's latest chip design artificial intelligence chip design is pushing it four years ahead of anything that nvidia is doing right now and then we have tasha keeney who is who is using their inputs and pulling together our autonomous taxi network model and the autonomous taxi network model is a very profitable model the gross margins there are in the 80 range the gross margins for auto manufacturers are in the twenty to thirty percent range night and day so you need a completely different kind of analyst and a different way of thinking about the world no longer sectors but platforms yes thinks tesla has room to run in fact she thinks tesla could hit fifteen thousand dollars a share within the next four years let's bring in arc invest ceo and founder kathy wood kathy welcome i know fifteen thousand a share is not your base case it's your it's your reach case what is your base case base case where this 700 stock is in four years yes the base case uh it's a five year target so the end of twenty four uh it's seven thousand dollars and we have we've arrived at that price by weighting the probabilities of 10 different scenarios including bankruptcy to be honest so we've been tried to be as fair and balanced as we possibly could be but our confidence level that this is this stock is heading for 7 000 over the next five years is very high so you take out your lowest probability scenarios you take out uh the ones that you think are just aren't going to work or the highly outlandish ones where everything has to click exactly right on what bricks is this seven thousand dollar foundation founded is it improving margins is it the lowering the cost of production of the vehicles as they get up to scale or what yes the there are three sources for the increase in our estimate our estimated price target one is as tesla killers entered the market last year we expected tesla's market share to go down from 17 globally that includes china to something lower instead it went up to 18 and the reason is 17 in electric vehicles or in all vehicles no electric electric vehicle electric this is global there are many electric vehicle manufacturers in china very low quality but very so what we're learning is tesla is just so far ahead of the pack and i'm talking about the bmws the mercedes as far as range and other important metrics when it comes to electric vehicles their battery cost is three years ahead three to four years ahead of any other auto manufacturer in terms of the cost declines and so every other auto manufacturer will if they want to be competitive with tesla uh will and i'm including bmw and daimler and all if they want to be competitive like for like they will have to sell their cars at a loss at the same time they're losing their internal combustion engine business take tyler's question to the next level is it do you dig in and get granular on the opportunities when you look at the some of the parts is it going to be panels autonomous drive or batteries that are the new breakout because when we look to tyler's point when we look at the cars in production everyone thinks they're an expert on what they can and can't do with tesla but is there going to be shockers going forward where there's going to be a breakout valuation on batteries because their technology is so far advanced yeah i think they acquired a company called maxwell technologies and they've been very secretive about what that is going to do for their battery technology so what i just said to you does not even incorporate maxwell so yes we do think there are surprises on the battery front they have their own ai chip for autonomous the only auto manufacturer to have one and james wang who worked at our analyst who worked at nvidia for eight nine years uh took a look at those specs and said four years ahead of anything that nvidia is going to be able to produce can because a single purpose is not general purpose so we think they're going to be way ahead of the game on autonomous and that's where the real surprises are going to be because autonomous is a recurring revenue very high margin almost software is a service like opportunity autonomous taxi networks and what what you have baked in the cake from the street primarily are low margin gross margins more like auto you know in the 25 30 range we actually think gross margins because of their battery technology could head for 40 on the ev itself and then the incremental revenues from autonomous would be in the 80 plus range and we think that's what people are missing and in our seven thousand dollar target so the scenario testing we assume only a 25 chance that they're going to be up and running uh with autonomous within two to three years so value traps where are they today banks you know their value stocks uh but we think they're going to be disrupted in many ways inverted yield curves we think are not just a a passing phenomenon uh we think they're they're going to stay flat to inverted which is really difficult for banks because of innovation and you can go back to the go back to the 50 years ended in the roaring twenties and you will see uh that yield curves were inverted more than sixty percent of the time on average a hundred basis points this is a killer for net interest margins right uh and that the steepest inversions occurred during periods of strongest growth it's the opposite of the way people are thinking now and the reason that is is because with innovation comes very rapid unit growth and we think growth is understated in the economy we're still operating with industrial statistics when we're in the digital age it doesn't make any sense hearkening back well first of all this is venmo uh if you don't know what venmo is it's peer-to-peer you can millennials will go to a restaurant and they'll all share a meal and then on venmo they'll just venmo each other for whoever pays the others will venmo their payment and it's very social you can see who's doing what uh there are some private privacy settings but most people just are able to see well who paid me back and who didn't and uh there's a little bit of peer pressure there uh 4 40 plus use venmo uh more than once per day now that's the millennials you can see uh other uh age groups are are beginning to catch on but they're way behind way behind and we go back to social media the adoption of social media uh back in 2006 millennials were moving on to social media about 40 percent of them were involved and you can see here again much lower in the um older age groups actually if you go back you can see that the older age groups are adopting fintech a little faster relative to millennials than they did social media and part of the reason for that is i know in my own case my children want me to use venmo they want me to be on venmo because guess what it's a way for me to get money to them really quickly whereas with social media they did not want me to be on facebook or or any other place so i think fintech is taking off for that reason a little faster you can see 12 years later how much every age group was participating in social media and we do think the same thing is going to be true of fintech if i had told you or any investor in the late 90s that there were going to be three companies with the foundational patents uh uh behind crispr cas9 which is the most advanced uh gene editing flavor i'll say these days and i had told you these companies are going to cure diseases that have been the scourge of human existence right they're going to cure they're going to be able to cure pediatric blindness or cancer as i mentioned before my guess in the late 90s when investors were chasing dreams and too much capital chased too few opportunities too soon that those three companies the cumul would have accumulated in market cap to roughly 200 to 300 billion dollars in market cap right they would have because they'd get a royalty on every therapeutic that was going to be developed and today we think the recurring revenue base in terms of the therapies just for single gene caused diseases we think that's a recurring revenue base of 75 billion they'd get 10 of that single genes are responsible for only 2 of all diseases that's just the beginning so the idea of 200 to 300 billion dollars certainly in the bubble easy easy today those three stocks in the market together can't even reach 5 billion dollars in market cap now think about it apple is a trillion dollar market cap company and it's changed our lives and we love our apple uh phones and air pods and watches but the apple is not curing cancer it's not curing disease these companies we believe will but there's so much fear in the marketplace and there are all kinds of reasons to avoid them uh the cap is too small or which is the kind of circular reasoning the cap is too small or they've just entered human trials uh i'll wait to see what happens well that'll be too late if these human trials are successful one of the first one being pediatric blindness a baby born blind you correct that programming error the baby can see it works in mice it works in non-human primates if it works in human beings think about how how what the reaction will be well we'd prefer to be in the stocks before that reaction and you know one thing i'd like to emphasize our analysts have domain expertise manisha sami one of our two genomics analysts worked in stanford university's biology research labs for eight years she experimented with crispr gene editing she's now volunteering at memorial sloan kettering with one of her stanford professors and she's still experimenting with different technologies like crispr and dna sequencing but more important she's seeing the researchers reactions to these new technologies their excitement so i really believe we we have domain expertise here and and manisha really believes this is going to work we're ready for prime time these are three exponential growth trends that are converging and that is why this is so difficult for traditional analysts to value this is all we do we do nothing but disruptive innovation because we have never seen as much disruptive innovation evolving at the same time ever you have to go back to telephone electricity internal combustion engine it's clear to see that the fund has a high amount of speculative stocks but also those with large growth potential despite many of these stocks currently being unprofitable it seems arc invest tends to focus on stocks with major growth potential now this type of investment seems more risky however it only takes our convex portfolio to have a few winners to outperform the index in my opinion this is mainly driven by three of my favorites tesla square and illumina in future videos i'll be diving deeper into these stocks and some of the others in the top 10 holdings so be sure to hit that subscribe button to be notified coming in yeah i just wanna win
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