Jim Cramer: Coronavirus has rendered bank stocks 'awful investments'

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결론: 코로나19 확산으로 은행주는 투자하기 까다로운 '끔찍한 투자처'가 되었으며, 당분간 가치 평가 자체가 어렵다. 은행주 취약성 진단: 오늘 시장 하락 때 금융주가 크게 폭락했고, 은행주는 시장이 밀릴 때마다 취약하다. 타 업종 피해 연쇄: 크루즈, 석유, 소매, 외식, 항공, 산업재·기술 기업 등 주요 고객 업종이 모두 팬데믹과 유가 충격으로 타격을 받고 있다. 대출 리스크: 노르웨이지안 크루즈는 JP모건에서 6억 7,500만 달러를 빌렸고, 장기부채는 60억 달러에 이른다. 크루즈가 회복되지 않으면 은행 대출이 부실화될 수 있다. 수익률곡선 영향: 평탄해진 수익률곡선 때문에 은행이 위험한 대출을 늘리고 있으며, 이는 부실 위험을 키운다. 정부 지원 관련: 대통령이 크루즈 등 어려운 산업을 돕겠다고 했지만 의회 승인 여부는 불투명하다. 은행의 방어 요인: 미국 은행은 대침체 이후 자본이 충분하고 현금도 많으며, 유럽 은행보다 훨씬 낫다. 자사주 매입 중단 등으로 배당을 지킬 여력도 있다. 최종 판단: 리스크가 큰 대출의 손실 규모를 가늠할 수 없어 은행주 가치 평가가 어렵다. 당분간 관망이 적절하다는 취지다.

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01. why are the bank stocks so darn vulnerable every time the market rolls over we saw it again today the averages could hammer and the financials were crushed they were bet they were swindled and they're mutilated the reason well that's a puzzle over this backs aren't like the cruise lines that might be banning their core customers the elderly for safety reasons as I keep telling you the last place you want to be during a pandemic is a cruise ship it'll be a long time before the industry comes back from this the backs not like the oils either a group that's in the crosshairs of both Russia and Saudi Arabia in a vicious place for declining crude was so Swift that the beleaguered Occidental Petroleum has already had the shredded stivity I'm betting others will follow the bags aren't like the retailer's or the restaurants which are likely to suffer as fewer people go out and stay at home economy takes over that like the Airlines which I'd add a capital costs something that comes back to bite you and everyone nobody wants to travel all the airlines are indeed better cap less than they were in the old days they never seem to have enough cash to tide themselves over through these piers when people stop flying and there's certainly I like the big industrials and technology companies that are finding it hard to close deals as enterprises friendly cut back on capital spending to preserve cash and face-to-face meetings well now they're hard to come by so let's see if the banks don't have any of these problems why are there stocks such don't simple they might not be suffering like the Coons lines or the oil producers or the retailer's or the restaurants or the airlines or the industrials but you know what all those groups have in common they are the banks a lot of money and now because of the flattened yield curve the banks are making risky loans it could be ridiculously low prices or interest rates now let me put this in context Monday one of our absolute favorite companies but not the stock Norwegian Cruise Lines borrowed six hundred and seventy five million dollars from JP Morgan they're a client and JP Morgan is going to help his client survive tough times in good times as a spokesperson from the Bank explain there good bankers something new but what happens if virus keeps raging the customers don't come back to the Norwegian violence or Norwegian has six billion dollars in long-term debt well it is a very well-run company our government's chief epidemiologist dr.

02. Tony Fauci is saying the elderly should avoid cruises well that's something it's not exactly inspiring for the elderly or for that matter younger people either it doesn't help but so many of these ships seem like floating petri dishes or even hospital ships from the look at them they're just behemoth frightening masses sure the president has pledged to help troubled industries like the cruise lines maybe look at what low-interest loans from the government although I don't know whether that would fly with anyone in Congress a bailout of who's like them aren't even Flagg sure I mean III don't know who gets hurt well I'd say it's the lenders like JP Morgan everyone in these industries takes down debt every one of these industries is shall we say suspect now if cruise lines and restaurants from retailers and airlines and oils are in trouble well so are the bankers think of it like this if I owe you a million dollars oh that's a me problem if I owe you billions of dollars well guess what that's a you problem you know what first read that but I was thinking that Donald Trump was reading about him in the casinos as president now you could argue the banks or scrub clean since Great Recession they have plenty of fees their lien is all get-out many now about the full yields but that's cuz their socks and fold so much and if necessary they can stop buying back stock to fund those dinners but in the end the ugly yield curve and the risky loans going but let's just say the risk of those loans going bad well I mean therefore the stocks could be awful investments and I've been a couple for my child trust crushing me now it won't always be this way our banks are the best banks in the world the European banks are a joke compared ours our banks have oodles of cash they were recapitalized during the Great Recession nevertheless here's the problem I cannot figure out how to value them right now all these industries struggling that are their clients and from the looks of things no one else can either stick with Krame