저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
요약 보기
신흥시장 투자자 마크 모비우스는 코로나19 공포로 시장이 과도하게 흔들리고 있으며, 불확실성 때문에 반응이 아직 적절하다고 보기 어렵다고 진단했다. 그는 자신이 보유 종목을 정리하고 유망하다고 판단한 종목을 추가 매수 중이며, 하락 시 더 매수할 계획이라고 밝혔다. 다만 너무 일찍 들어갈 위험도 인정했다. 유가 하락의 영향으로 GDP 대비 석유 수입 비중이 3~5%인 한국, 인도, 남아공, 터키, 인도네시아는 수혜가 예상되고, 사우디와 러시아는 불리하다고 언급했다. 유가 하락으로 인플레이션이 낮아지면 각국 중앙은행이 금리를 내릴 여지가 생기고, 이는 소비 회복으로 이어질 수 있다고 봤다. 연준의 50bp 인하는 신흥시장에 큰 의미가 있으며, 미국 ETF 흐름과 신흥시장의 상관관계가 높아졌다고 설명했다. 중국은 제조업 재가동을 서두르고 있으나 재확산 가능성을 주시해야 한다고 보았다. 한국은 검사 역량이 높아 확진자 수가 많은 것이라는 견해를 밝혔다. 장기적으로 변동성은 과거 아르헨티나·브라질 시기보다 완화되겠지만, 인터넷으로 전파가 빨라져 상승·하락 사이클은 더 빠르게 나타날 것이라고 전망했다. 의료 과학의 발전으로 바이러스는 극복 가능하다고 낙관했다. 이번 영상은 개별 자산의 1~3개월 가격 방향에 대한 명시적 예측이 거의 없으며, 신흥시장 전반에 대한 중립적·조건부 견해 위주다.
다듬은 글
we've seen the toll the coronavirus has taken on the US markets but other countries have also been hit hard the widely tracked iShares emerging market ETF is down about 13 percent this year joining us right now on the phone is legendary emerging markets investor Marc Mobius he's the founding partner of Mobius Capital Partners and Marc thank you for taking the time to talk with us today my pleasure the the moves we've seen in the markets do you think it's been an overreaction an under reaction or maybe just right - as what we know right now about the coronavirus I don't think it's been a noble reaction simply because there's so much uncertainty out there you know I thought being here in South Africa and before this in Latin America I'd be safe because no no announced coronavirus victims but now we have it here we have it everywhere so the uncertainty is definitely a big big factor which causes clear and of course causes people to sell out and to go into safe havens like gold or Treasuries or something like that what have you done I've been actually adding I'm trying to add to our investment trust now I hope I can get it at the right price so that's my strategy is to consolidate in other words I had some holdings which were not the greatest there wasn't one for sell and then add to those that look good so I feel that this is in some directions of buying opportunity of course you can always go in too early it's happened before but I think it makes sense to put some money in and continue to put in as the markets come down if they do come down when you talk about markets that look good areas that look good are those the areas that maybe have already dealt with a big part of the coronavirus and maybe we're seeing them come out the other side I'm thinking specifically of China well you know if you look at the key is here oil prices are this stage that's a big big factor and if you look at the impact of lower oil prices you've got to be looking at South Korea and India at South Africa and South Africa Turkey Indonesia these the country you have three to five percent of their GDP in into oil imports so you know of course Saudi Arabia and you know Russia not gonna be doing too well this environment but there are countries that will benefit and another factor I think it's important to remember is that you know the detection of this coronavirus in some of these countries has not been fully utilized in other words the number of test kits are not available and I think one of the reasons why South Korea has such high numbers is that they're doing a very very good job in testing people they have enough test kits and they're out there testing you know many many people well that's an interesting point and going back to China we we have seen the reported number of cases drop we've seen them close some of the temporary hospitals they'd set up but I guess now that they're going back to work we get the next question I mean what happens now once you lift some of those severe restrictions exactly and that's I mean I know the the Chinese authorities are very very eager to get production going again because the Chinese manufacturing system is going to be losing market share to other countries around the world so they're very eager to get going again and of course the next question is whether we're going to see another half a second very outbreak so we have to watch this very carefully I guess the the thing that really catches my attention that you just said is you're looking at markets where you're not so much factoring in coronavirus as much as you are oil prices countries that that have three to five percent of their GDP and oil inputs that they're they're bringing in you're not going to make any bets you're just going to go to the things that you know will help exactly and I think another factor here is the impact as lower oil prices on inflation this again enables the central banks in these countries to lower rates in line with what the US is doing so I think that's a very very important point and of course with lower inflation you get lower retail prices which encourages people to buy and you see recovery in these economies it won't happen overnight but you know and the next few months you probably will see that what did the feds recent 50 basis point cut mean through the view of what it means for emerging markets those that you're focused on well it means a lot I mean you you pick up a newspaper anywhere in these emerging markets like here in South Africa you pick up a newspaper the headline is you know the Fed has done this or done that so people are watching this very very carefully and of course weekly big ETF activity in emerging markets as well as develop markets the correlation between what's happening in the US and the emerging markets increases so a downturn in the ETF space in the US has an impact on what's happening in emerging markets mark you said you're you're buying at this point when did you start what what was the the sell-off that made you think this is enough to start jumping in just yesterday just yesterday we started beyond you're in South Africa are you there for business or are you there because you were concerned about what was happening in Singapore in other places well I came here for business first but then I was planning I actually had to attend a board meeting in Romania and another talk in Russia in the next few weeks and I decided to cancel those and stay here not do much traveling until things begin to quiet down so mark after having been active for so long you know globally in all these different markets do you think in a couple of years you know this will be an instant in the past but difference I think it's going to be that the variation will not be as extreme you know I remember being investing in Argentina and Brazil when inflation was 2000-3000 percent so you know it's unlikely we're going to see those extremes probably in the future but at the same time you're always you're gonna see these ups and downs these bear market these panics etc etc but the nature of them will be much different because right now with the internet and with incredible communications things will happen much faster and will spread around the world much quicker yeah I just I guess the question and none of us can really answer is it going to be in hindsight like a really nasty influenza season or is it going to be a pandemic akin to something that hasn't happened in a century and I don't know what we don't really know which it is at this point and are we able to deal with it better with modern science modern technology or does the you know the whole airline issue make us even more susceptible since it's spread so quickly I don't know we don't know any of the answers to these things now I don't think well that's you know that's really the difference that we have now is that with incredible travel I mean I go to these airports with brand new airports and all these emerging markets filled with people there's definitely going to be a spread of anything that hits any individual country and it will spread around the world the difference of course this time is that we now have much better health care we have much better scientific information about these viruses so I'm quite optimistic that we can conquer that but as I said anything that happens it's going to happen on a global basis okay hey mark thanks for talking to us today we hope we can check in with you again soon you
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