저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
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결론: 인플레이션은 하락 추세이며 현재 강세장이 이어지고 있으나 과열(melt-up) 우려가 있어 건강한 조정을 기대한다. 시장 전망: 2023년 10월 12일 이후 강세장이 지속 중이며, S&P500 목표치는 연말(또는 당분간) 4,600이고 이후 4,800~5,400까지 상향 가능하다고 본다. 과열 후 급락 가능성을 경계한다. 경기 판단: 전체 경기침체가 아니라 '롤링 리세션(rolling recession)'으로 본다. 주택 등 일부 부문은 이미 회복 국면이며, 상업용 부동산은 침체 가능성이 있다. 실업 등 고용지표는 양호하다. 인플레이션: CPI 기준 전년비 3%대로 하락했고 디스인플레이션이 진행 중이다. 중국 경기 둔화 데이터가 최근 시장 하락 요인으로 언급됐다. 인플레이션 원인: 팬데믹 이후 정부 부양책으로 인한 재화 소비 급증과 공급망 병목이 원인이었으며, 재화 수요 충족 후 인플레이션은 예상보다 일시적(transitory)이었다고 평가한다. 정책 평가: 연준의 금리 인상이 인플레이션 하락에 기여했다고 보며, 연준이 임무를 완수했다는 평가에 긍정적이다. 인플레이션 감축법(IRA)의 효과는 인플레 하락 원인이 아니라고 본다. 기술주 전망: 목표치 상승은 기술주 주도가 아닌 시장 확산(broadening)에 따른 것이라고 본다. 나스닥 비중 확대 관련 질문에 대해 시장 전반 확산을 기대한다고 답했다. 리스크: 과열 후 급락(melt-up 후 meltdown) 위험, 중국 경기 부진, 상업용 부동산 침체.
다듬은 글
our next guest says there are too many bulls in the market and he's worried about a melt up for more on this depressing news now for more on the markets want to bring an edge yard any president for Denny research good morning to you good morning uh we had Mr Leon earlier who has some nice optimism to him right it sounds like you're you're happy about where inflation is going absolutely but less happy about how the Market's taking it well I I would like to see a civilized bull market here I don't want this thing getting out of out of hand and so I am concerned about a melt up because melt ups are usually followed by by meltdowns but the bottom line is we've been in a bull market since October 12th we're still in a bull market if if we have a pullback I think the the word is pulled back rather than correction I think that will be a healthy development but I'm still targeting 4 600 by the end of the year or by the end of the week I haven't quite figured out the timing but let's talk real economy first and then we'll come back to the market so where do you really think we are on inflation where do you really think we are and what the FED may or may not do this summer and come this fall yeah I think Market is uh kind of overjoyed with a disinflationary soft Landing scenario that seems to be what we're in I've been thinking for quite some time that we're in a recession but I argue that it's a rolling recession not an economy-wide recession now I think we're in a rolling recovery housing I think the recession pieces is we've passed that I I think we have and I think we have had for those who are waiting for a recession I think we've had it all along it's just been hitting different sectors at different times and there's been strength in other areas I think the same things happen now we're probably going to go into recession in the commercial real estate then do you give a standing ovation to Jay Powell well I do actually usually uh Wall Street economists and strategists like to be contrary and to say that the FED is uh is is not on the right track but I think they actually can say mission accomplished I hope they don't because that'll be a jinx right but look at inflation's down to three percent on a CPI basis in a year-over-year basis I think that in that disinflation is now made in China the the Market's down today because of weak China data but a couple of days ago it was up because of better than expected PPI so we're gonna I just Jared Bernstein's gonna be honor I just thought of a really good thing that he should do that he's going to come on right he's going to say we had nothing to do with inflation being ignited in the first place but we have everything to do with inflation coming down because we pass yeah so that we know that and I would I was going to say to him Jared instead of no one really believes that so it doesn't help your case it just sounds like why don't you say the FED brought down the inflation rate with its increase but we gave the economy enough positive things that the economy held up in the face of five absolutely so I would sell it that way yeah that's what they've been saying because the kids they say we can't they can say that they can say that but to find the actual none of the policies that we've passed have really been implemented yeah and a lot of this is just a recovery after the pandemic but they're going to take you said you read earlier they're going to take a Victory lap on inflation the inflation reduction act hasn't been put in yet that's not why inflation is coming up inflation is coming down because of the FED but we've had good jobs numbers every Friday so if you're going gonna really sell something that people might not just immediately dismiss is just total well what about all the supply chain stuff because that's been actually the biggest piece of it right but but and you're not how do we manage pretty well there's always this tendency for the whole world there's always this reality because of the nature of Journalism and financial press to really focus on fiscal and monetary policy and what happens in Washington right but but I think it's important to realize that a lot of what's happened over the past few years has occurred because something very different has has in fact occurred and that is the pandemic and the pandemic had shock waves that caused inflation they caused the supply chain Ukraine and today the deal to allow these that's a troubling to come back that could be Troublesome that could be Troublesome on the on the information who manages the supply chain the government management or the private sector worked its way around the supply chain I think that what happened is the uh response of the government to the pandemic was to over stimulate no no but to the point of the supply chain do you give them credit for what they did at the ports do you give them credit or or not do they make mistakes there was that the yeah I I I'm not into uh blaming uh folks my my uh kind of objective analysis of what happened is that the stimulus from the from all these checks created a buying binge we all got Cabin Fever from being at home for a couple of months and when we started for a couple of months years well the lockdowns no I know but in general it was a lot longer they had a buying we had a buying binge and we couldn't buy services so we bought goods and that's really what caused the the ports to clog up retailers got fooled and they ordered way too much and by the time it got through the ports consumers were already passed on and said no mas then they pivoted but are you ready how did the supply chain how was that solved and how was it reopened the government because the consumer I don't like to give the government a lot of credit well I don't either for things but I think in this case we had a bondage for goods it got satisfied and then suddenly the demand for goods was such that inventories piled up and we had the disinflation in the Goods Market so I would argue that inflation has actually been ironically much more okay transitory than persistent let me ask you one last question with this 4600 Target of yours how much of that is going to be a function of tech and otherwise the NASDAQ right going up versus the rest of the market given the heavy weight weighted element that is Tech in all of this yeah I I I'm I think Mike centola got it right is that uh the market is broadening out uh look beyond beyond 4 600 I'm looking for 4 800 to 5400 God bless the next 18 months and uh I think that's going to be because there is no recession because earnings are going to be picking up and I think because the market will in fact broaden out
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