저자: LarryFink · 외국인
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래리 핑크는 물가가 3~4% 수준에서 끈적하게(sticky) 머물 것이며, 이로 인해 연준이 금리 인상 기조를 쉽게 거두지 않을 것이라고 전망함. 에너지 가격 하락과 중고차 가격 하락 등 최근 물가 지표의 둔화는 이미 정점을 지난 저점 신호로 보았으나, 에너지 가격은 앞으로 하락이 아니라 상승할 것이라고 주장함. 고용 시장은 실업률 3.6%로 매우 타이트해 임금 상승 압력이 지속되며, 이는 인플레이션의 끈적함을 강화하는 요인이라고 설명함. AI가 노동 대체를 일으키겠지만 그 시점은 2~4년 뒤로 보며 당장은 아니라고 봄. 블랙록은 자연어처리와 빅데이터 분석에 AI를 적용하고 있다고 언급. 탄소 포집·저장(CCS) 분야에서 엑슨모빌 등 에너지 기업과의 협업이 중요하다고 강조하며, 최근 대형 거래를 긍정적으로 평가함. 2년 전 논의였던 에너지 기업 투자 철회(divestiture)는 이제 협력 방향으로 바뀌었다고 설명함. 미국 인플레이션 감축법(IRA)이 이런 투자 기회를 만들고 있으며, 외국 기업들의 미국 투자 증가도 언급함. 블랙록 고객 자금의 투자 결정은 고객이 하며, 재생에너지·탈탄소 분야에 자금이 지속 유입되고 있다고 밝힘. 투자 대상 자산에 대한 구체적 가격 방향 발언(1~3개월)은 없고, 물가·금리 관련 중장기 전망 위주임.
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although you were so early Larry in drawing people's attention to to inflation yeah and how that would be a stair-step function coming out of covid have any of the downside surprises this week in first few at all not not at all I mean um I believe in our inflation numbers that came out this week were an example of lower energy prices and importantly this happens just every day okay there we go lower energy prices lower car prices if you look at now like carvana their stock increase are we over the decline in used cars prices if you look at the homeowner home builder stocks record highs is here are we starting to see a renew activity as I said with the IRA the chips Act and the infant truck track just starting to hit the J curve the demand for for workers is going to be extraordinary well if we were six percent unemployment we'd be in terrific shape be able to handle us we're at 3.6 and I think we could go to three four not three not four and that's why that's gonna keep wages much higher Jim says it all the time and that's why I think interest rates or inflation is gonna be stickier and I think we saw a low because of that the next five to ten dollars of energy prices is going to be up not down and you talk to the executives in energy that's what they're saying right now um and so I think we've seen a a low in inflation and I think inflation would be sticky between three and four percent and if I'm right about the job creations and the need for labor and what that's going to elevate uh wages you know we're going to be in a period of three to four percent interest rates excuse me inflation which will translate into a Fed that I think is going to be reluctant to turn off their their platform of raising rates so it doesn't sound like you're counting on a lot of Labor displacement from Ai and so Rises unemployment ultimately I actually do believe that will happen but I don't believe that's happening at any time soon I think that's a year two three four years away I don't see that happening now ai has huge potential it is going to increase productivity it has a lot of potential but how we adapt it how we organize ourselves of I don't have the answers yet I mean we're all studying it we're all putting huge teams of people on on this and we all see how we're going to adapt to it and we're looking at it quite extensively we always you know we have our platform that use natural language processing already we look at that we look at Big Data analysis and we're looking at how AI can accelerate that I wanted to ask you about energy because we had a deal this week Exxon fine love number love this I mean listen it had been something we've been thinking that might happen in terms of carbon cash exactly what I've been talking about we have to be working with our energy companies they own the geology and what Darren was talking about now he owns the pipelines that put it into their geology I think it's a it was a brilliant transaction we have at the moment one of the largest sequestration projects in Southern Illinois a navigator CO2 I mean it's it's this is where I believe we have to be working with energy companies and this is another example how we have to have um we have to move aggressively make sure we have energy security but at the same time we have to aggressively move in decarbonization we are seeing more opportunities in de-carbonization whether it's working in Australia building the better the biggest battery storage facility uh we're working with a few other governments on that those type of projects uh we're you know we're spending more time working on biofuels to create natural gas yeah I mean but you know Larry when it comes to like ESG I know that's a dirty word now whatever we say it is but you know I think of Exxon for example my friend Jeff up and is on the board right he has a a fund basically that's you know supposed to be focused on on the new era of energy yes he couldn't raise money in part because he's the next board member in other words it like he got crossed off and that happens all the time even though Exxon is actually trying to forge a new future to a certain extent and obviously it's important from its business perspective for the future in terms of carbon capture and sequestration so in the last two years we saw about 200 billion dollars of added money in our you know in in in Renewables decarbonization the money is there we're seeing it we're investing in what the metrics right is it is it working properly in terms of the capital flowing to where it can to actually decarbonize our our world in the proper way or certain companies that are associated with fossil fuels for example just not on the list but I think Darren said it really well the deal worked because the IRA right he also said he you know we're going to have to create efficiencies to make it really profitable to meet their their return on Equity to me you know without the governmental subsidies but you're you're the key here and one of the keys in deciding where Capital should flow in terms of these companies that are doing the right thing in terms um first of all it's our clients money and they make the determination where it is we are seeing more interested parties to invest in decarbonization ever the keeping remember two years ago the conversation was about uh divestiture and we always said even as much as criticism I got I always had never divest I bet just sure is a bad thing you know we want to be working with these companies alongside and I think you know we're aware of a couple other big projects with other major energy companies they're going to be moving forward on that on exactly what Exxon did and I think that's just that's this is just the beginning and that's also a great example of what the IRA is doing to our economy and how it's creating more opportunities and I think we underestimate the power of the IRA and the and getting back to what Jim asked related to the difference between the U.S and the world we're seeing more foreign companies moving into the United States doing this whether it's in chemical re-engineering or carbon capture carbon sequestration
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