Wharton Professor Jeremy Siegel: Here's why the Fed should stop raising rates

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결론: 연준은 금리 인상을 멈춰야 하며, 인플레이션 재발 우려는 과도하고 경기 연착륙 가능성이 있다는 주장. 경기·인플레이션 진단: 강한 경제성장과 둔화되는 인플레이션이 동시에 나타나고 있으며, 실업수당 청구 건수 감소로 일시적 약세가 사라지는 중이라고 봄. 유가(브렌트유 약 80달러)와 원자재 지수는 안정화됐고 주택시장도 안정됨. 인플레이션 재발 우려 반박: 임금은 팬데믹 이후 물가에 뒤처져 있어 따라잡는 단계이며 인플레이션의 원인이 아니라고 봄. 다만 원자재 가격이 다시 오르면 연준은 경계해야 한다고 조건부로 언급. 금리·주택 리스크: 30년 모기지 금리가 약 7.375%로 상승해 주택 구매자에게 부담이 되고 거래가 여전히 부진하다고 봄. 연준 전망: 7월 0.25%p 인상은 사실상 확정적이며, 9월 인상 여부는 향후 6주간 데이터에 달려 있다고 봄. 보드 멤버 불라드(James Bullard)의 예상외 사임으로 매파 성향 위원들이 힘을 얻을 수 있음을 지적. 통화정책 지연효과: 연준 일부 인사가 통화정책 시차(lag)가 사라졌다고 말하지만 이는 틀렸다고 반박. 팬데믹기 통화 증가가 2021년에야 인플레이션으로 나타난 사례를 들어 시차가 여전히 유효하다고 봄. 하락 리스크 및 결론: 추가 인상 전에 몇 차례 동결하고 결과를 지켜보는 것이 낫다고 주장. 연준이 기대와 달리 연착륙을 달성할 수도 있다고 언급. 출연자 전망 요약: 경기 연착륙 가능성은 열어두되, 금리 인상의 시차 효과에 따른 하방 리스크를 여전히 우려함.

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01. our next guest says positive momentum is still strong and that the FED should stop raising rates Wharton School Professor Finance Jeremy Siegel joins us now you've been saying this for a while yeah Jeremy and it doesn't it doesn't feel like they're listening to you because what we get is still a lot more hawkish fed speak and now there's there's this idea that I talked about this morning that they're talking a little bit about which is that we we can't necessarily assume we've seen the last of inflation it could bubble back up our economy is still doing okay why is that wrong well I mean it's a bold Deluxe economy I mean I mean strong economic growth uh and falling inflation I mean you hit it yesterday I mean Sarah you and I looked at the jobless claims dropping so that temporary weakness that we saw or you know earlier this month looks like it's disappearing um however I don't see any reappearance of inflationary Trends I see stability uh you know oil has got its footing commodity index of sort of stabilized the housing market is stabilized but I don't see anything that big inflationary uh uptick I'm not concerned about today's University of Michigan it was taken before a bike you know before the news came out on the CPI and the PPI and uh you know again decade when we had CPI year over year down to three percent and core under five we got headlines and all the the major newspapers and that's what really affects that consumer expectations Brent crude is back up to 80.

02. it's rallied even in the face of weaker Chinese data some of the other metals have rallied as well housing is now on the rebound and we know that's an important one for the Fed and the consumers in decent shape we're told by the bankers this morning I mean isn't it the wages and the fact that there's a lot of demand for labor that even if it's softening is still showing a 9 million job openings doesn't that all of that wouldn't that make you on guard for inflation coming back up you're right on this on on the Commodities the housing has hooked up uh there's still not a lot of transaction a lot of our cash transactions we know that the you know the 30-year mortgage is going up to seven three uh three eighths and so that that's going to be somewhat of a problem for for those that have to finance their home um yeah I mean those those things uh you know definitely have to be considered I think it's wrong to Target wages wages as we've mentioned have fallen behind inflation since the pandemic they're in catch-up mode uh we need to bring people into the into the labor force I don't think they've been the source of of the inflation so I think it's it's wrong to say we're gonna it's almost like they're targeting real growth uh and and uh and and against the wage growth that is is necessary but I I agree with you you know you got to look at those commodity markets they have stabilized if they start going up again then and clearly the FED has to stay on guard listen I think uh you know in a week and a half we're going to definitely have the uh another quarter point that's baked in what happens in September depends certainly on what's going to the the evolution of the data over the next uh six weeks after that we also have to take into account that James board you know surprise retirement one of the most hawkish members although is counterpart at the the Federal Reserve Waller uh on the board it's very very hawkish uh as well as several others uh that can certainly take his place um uh on the committee and they've been right the Hawks have been empowered by the data because the economy is not falling apart and yes maybe we haven't felt the lags and clearly everybody I still say I still say the legs you can't ignore them I know that several fed officials said oh we don't have in legs anymore well hey take a look at their decision on tightening for inflation you know between that surge of money that started on the month of the pandemic March and continuing next year we didn't get that surge of inflation until 2021 so I don't think legs are you know dead and gone the way some fed officials have said and that's what worries me I I still see those downside risks I I'd much prefer to let a couple of these pass and see really what happens before I start hiking again but nonetheless you know this you know the hey the FED might stick The Landing here against all expectations to use that Olympic term