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비트코인이 금 시가총액의 절반 수준까지 간다면 약 30만 달러, 캐시 우드는 2030년까지 150만 달러(기본 시나리오 62.5만 달러)를 전망한다. [비트코인 가격 전망] 마크 유스코는 비트코인을 디지털 금으로 보고 금 시가총액(약 11조 달러)의 절반(약 6조 달러)을 근거로 개당 약 30만 달러를 제시한다. 현재 가격 대비 약 10배 상승이다. Yusko는 과거 메트칼프 법칙 모델로 적정가치를 5.5만 달러로 봤고, 2024년 투기적 과열 고점을 예상했다. [캐시 우드의 전망] 캐시 우드는 강세(bull) 시나리오 150만 달러, 기본(base) 시나리오 62.5만 달러를 제시했다. 2023년 3월 지역은행 위기 때 비트코인이 1.9만→3만 달러로 오른 것을 안전자산 수요의 증거로 들며 확신이 커졌다고 말했다. [근거와 리스크] 비트코인의 근거는 몰수 위험·인플레이션·상대방 위험에 대한 보험, 탈중앙·투명성, 이동성과 분할성 우위다. 유스코는 4년 반감기 주기를 설명하며 2023년을 '크립토 서머'로 보고, 2024년 하반기 이후 과열 고점을 경고했다. 레버리지와 마진 부채가 주식 시장 급등의 원인이며 엔비디아 가격은 수학적으로 정당화되기 어렵다고 지적했다. [기타 종목 언급] 캐시 우드는 코인베이스·테슬라 등 파괴적 혁신 기업을 보유하며, 향후 10년 후반기에 시장을 크게 웃돌 것으로 봤다. 아크 혁신 ETF는 2023년 연초 이후 57.35% 상승해 나스닥100(42.66%)을 앞섰다. [조건과 한계] 가격 전망은 장기 시나리오이며 단기 방향성 근거는 제시되지 않았다. 유스코는 레버리지 과열로 인한 급락 가능성을 함께 경고했다.
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the one adjustment I I make is the total market cap of gold is 11 trillion okay total market cap and you know we're about half a trillion in in Bitcoin half of that gold isn't money it's jewelry and chalices and you know gold leaf and and stuff that that isn't really used as a monetary base so that half is Six Trillion that's a 10x from here current price of 30 10x is 300K okay 300K to me is is so easy we don't even have to debate earlier this week during an interview with Bloomberg television Arc invest founder and CEO Kathy Wood reiterated her previous price predictions for Bitcoin the world's largest cryptocurrency by market cap last year despite the many collapses and widespread crypto contagion wood predicted that Bitcoin was on track to hit the one million dollar Mark latest by 2030.
she updated that prediction earlier this year predicting a stronger move to 1.5 million dollars per coin for the leading crypto asset according to wooden Arc invest Bitcoin is at the epicenter of blockchain Technology one of the five major Innovation platforms that are currently converging and set to grow exponentially over the next few years during her interview with Bloomberg wood briefly discusses her price predictions for Bitcoin and how another banking sector crisis will get us there much faster here is a clip from the interview we went to a bear base and ball case so our ball case is I think it's 1.5 million the base case is 600 and I think it's 625 000 something like that now one reason we've actually internally our confidence has increased towards the ball case is because of what happened during the Regional Bank crisis in March what happened Bitcoin so as Regional banks are going bankrupt and and the stocks are imploding across the board for the kre Bitcoin rallied from nineteen thousand to thirty thousand why did that happen that was a flight to safety that is the insurance policy that we are talking about that we believe everyone will want at the end of the day insurance policy against two things uh confiscation of wealth either directly uh or by inflation or on in the deflation world what is the what is it a hedge against right it's a head against counterparty risk uh we won't do we won't have an 0809 with Bitcoin everything is decentralized and transparent no obfuscation Mark yusco the founder and CIO of Morgan Creek capital Investments has reacted towards 1.5 million dollar Bitcoin prediction and given his bull case for the leading digital asset during a recent interview with Scott melker yusco states that he is optimistic about Bitcoin hitting six figures per coin he describes the leading crypto asset as digital gold adding that it should have no problem capturing about half of gold's current market cap that would take the price of Bitcoin to about three hundred thousand dollars per coin and 887 increase from current prices yusco's prediction is far more conservative than woods but he admits Bitcoin could and will go much higher with time due to its many many advantages over gold we will now bring you clips from Mark yusco's interview please take a little time to like this video subscribe to the channel and turn on post notifications for more videos like this also ensure you drop your comments and observations in the comments section below everything you do helps with the YouTube algorithm and contributes to the Channel's growth thanks and enjoy the video the math of of Bitcoin is pretty easy right we're we're we take the total market cap that we think is achievable we divide by the number of coins that are still in circulation and you get you get a number and and everybody fixates on that number but I always think it's it's the wrong number right because it's it's in our currency so you and I both know one Bitcoin is one Bitcoin it has been the entire time that's what we're trying to move toward is a world where where Bitcoin is is the unit of of measure what we're talking about here is dollars per Bitcoin and that price that everybody fixates on isn't so much Bitcoin getting better it's actually our money at the dollar getting worse it's you know like trying to buy a cup of coffee that you know used to be a quarter now is five dollars or six dollars that's it's the same cup of coffee it does the same thing it delivers the same amount of caffeine um unless you put whatever Kathy's putting in hers uh and um you know it's so anyway the math of of just pick a number 500K 600k let's let's do that math together where does that even come from well if you if you have a base case that the market cap of Bitcoin should roughly equal Gold's market cap okay yeah a reasonable assumption if we say that Bitcoin is digital gold and it plays the role of Base money right money as we know it is really a small thing it's it's gold and Mark what do you mean I use cash no that's that's debt that's a currency but it's not money money is an asset that exists in the absence of a liability the only thing in the world that does that for five thousand years is is gold now people have you know dabbled with other stuff but but ultimately all the other stuff that we think of is money is backed by debt it's it's currency and that's why it ultimately devalues and ultimately inflates away and why in the history of the world there have been 775 paper currencies three quarters of them no longer exist I mean they literally went away and the same is happening in real time to the dollar which is why Larry Fink Larry think like not exactly you know Joe from some you know uh Twitter handle we're talking one of the most powerful people in the world manages you know he's in charge of a company that manages close to 10 trillion with a t dollars said that you should put some money in Bitcoin in my ETF of course will protect you from devaluation of the currency he actually said it 300K to me is is so easy we don't even have to debate because the idea of of Bitcoin being better than gold as a store of value as a unit of account as more portable like I say all the time if I if I had a bar gold which maybe at my other house I do but but you know if I had a bar gold and I wanted to break it in half and send you half I'm not strong enough to break the bar of gold first of all second I couldn't stuff it in the computer to send to you I want to send you some Bitcoin you know I punch a couple buttons and and you got Bitcoin you're done so that's a superior store value and medium of exchange so I believe Bitcoin gold equivalents is a no-brainer now when tomorrow next day I don't really care sometime in the future that's easy so that's that 300K number in one of his previous interviews yusco had predicted a speculative blow off top in 2024 if the application of a spot Bitcoin exchange traded fund ETF coincides with the coming halving event in a recent interview with Cohen Telegraph the hedge fund manager said based on metcalf's law model the fair value for Bitcoin is around 55 000.
so I think we drift upwards toward that level we probably will have a speculative blow off top sometime in 2024. he does a similar analysis in his interview with melka adding that we are about to witness a parabolic blow-off peak in the cryptocurrency markets similar to what is happening in the stock market there's a four-year cycle and there's gonna be a four-year cycle because it's coded into Bitcoin every four years the block rewards get cut in half and therefore one of two things has to happen either a large number of the miners have to go bankrupt because their costs are basically fixed or the price has to rise and that's a pretty cool thing because what happens is as the price Rises it attracts attention right movement attracts attention right and like if if someone like if my son or daughter were to you know move across the the frame in the back I I would look because that's what you know we Hunters do and we follow movement and so what happens every four years is we have these these seasons and today we're in crypto summer well what is crypto summer summer is the period leading up to the having the year before the having and what does that mean well that means we drift From Below fair value okay now why are we below Fair High well because we had winter two seasons ago that pushes the price down well why does winter happen well because people freak out because of the parabolic top in the previous fall and then we go through spring which is kind of the bottoming process that ended I think from June to June and now we're back in summer well if the the metcalf's law model that Tim Peterson that I use says fair value is 55k investors people who buy things below fair value that's what an investor is supposed to do would be accumulating Bitcoin here right if the price is 30 and the fair value is 55 you would be a buyer so as that happens it it slowly accrets toward fair value when the having occurs suddenly the price has to rise a little faster well now that draws in speculators well what are speculators speculators are people that don't care about the fair value they don't care about the price they just want to make money so they're drawn to the movement well so in the fall of the cycle okay the year following the having what you get is increasing velocity and increasing interest the media comes in you got lots of Click bait and suddenly it starts to go parabolic well here's what happens toward the end of that cycle that that fall period you get the Leverage and The Leverage is what call causes the parabola and that's true of every look what's happening in stocks right now why are stocks going like this why is NVIDIA going like this leverage and short selling and short covering that that's what it is there's no chance that Nvidia is worth in terms of value its current price not mathematically possible it's a great company they make great products they're going to sell a lot of chips to people thinking that AI is going to change the world even though AI is not new it's a 55 year old overnight success story and you know we're all not going to be replaced by chat GPT I got news for you but but that's not the point the point is leverage margin debt is accelerating again and so Leverage is causing prices to be crazy so we're in a parabolic blow off peak in stocks I believe and we will have another parabolic blow-off Peak kind of late 2024 having happens April May by the end of that year we'll be in the parabolic fair value when we hit 60 the model said fair value was 20.
and it had fallen to 20. because remember transaction volume fell and everyone's afraid yeah and so and so we got to 3x because of the crazy binance 100 times leverage and all the stupid stuff and and that's fine in the previous cycle in in um uh 2017 we got to two times for fair value was ten we got to 20.
okay that's fine so this time fair value will accrete according to the model if if things stay the way they are fair value will create to around 100k during her interview with Bloomberg would discuss the performance of her Flagship fund Arc Innovation ETF maintaining despite heavy criticism that the etf's active management approach is showing good results in 2023 year to date the flagship fund has gained 57.35 in comparison the NASDAQ 100 has gained 42.66 despite the mega cap tech stocks wood also noted that her funds have had positive inflows in July After experiencing significant outflows early this year she continues to be a strong believer in names like coinbase Tesla and several disruptive innovation firms which she says will significantly outperform the rest of the markets during the other half of the decade what are your thoughts on yusco and woods Bitcoin prediction do you think we hit the 1.5 million dollar Mark by 2030 as wood predicts please drop your comments and observations in the comments section below also ensure you like this video subscribe to the channel and turn on post notifications for more videos like this thanks for watching
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