저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
소프트뱅크 주가 8.5% 급락(10/13)을 분석. 순이익 354억 달러 사상 최대와 분기 영업손실 28.8억 달러(영업이익률 -20.4%)가 괴리. 원인은 ①중국 CXMT 메모리 기술 발전 우려로 촉발된 반도체 투매(코스피 -5.5%, 삼성 -7.4%, SK하이닉스 -10%↑)와 10년물 금리 5.2%, 브렌트유 약 104달러 등 거시 압박 ②오픈AI 매출 전망 약 700억 달러 대비 실제 약 500억 달러 괴리 ③Vision Fund 변동성과 순부채 1,229억 달러 레버리지. 내레이터는 결론을 내리지 않고 장기 AI 전망과 단기 현금흐름 우려 사이의 선택으로 제시.
다듬은 글
Welcome to the " Explainer". Today we'll analyze one of the most interesting market paradoxes we've seen in a long time—the sudden drop in SoftBank Group shares on October 13. Listen , if you follow the world of technology, you already know that SoftBank is a real titan, right? They are actually an indicator for the entire sector.
But what happened on this particular day left even the most seasoned investors scratching their heads. So, we're going to take this sudden collapse apart and analyze the anatomy of the fall. Let's start with this huge gap. If you just looked at the earnings headlines, you'd probably think SoftBank headquarters was celebrating success.
I mean, the company literally just reported record annual net income of $35.4 billion. This is the largest annual net profit in the company's history. And to top it all off, their fourth-quarter earnings per share simply crushed Wall Street estimates by a staggering 552%. By all traditional metrics, it was an extremely successful quarter.
But here's the catch. Despite these record profits, SoftBank shares have plummeted. We are talking about an instant drop of 8.5% right after trading opened in Tokyo. And that's not all . This sell-off actually spread further, causing falls of between 6% and 11% in parallel trading sessions around the world.
Honestly, it was a brutal day. Think about it. Their core investment division is trading near all-time highs, they have record net income, and the market is aggressively hitting the “sell” button. So what's going on? How can you make record profits and instantly trigger a massive sell-off? Well, to solve this little financial mystery, we can't just look at the numbers in the headlines.
We need to look wider. We will look at the anatomy of this fall through three different prisms. First, global macroeconomic difficulties. Secondly, a very sudden reality check in the artificial intelligence sector. And finally, the hidden realities buried deep in SoftBank's own accounting records. So, part one of this decline: macroeconomic pressures.
The first culprit here actually has nothing to do with SoftBank's internal affairs. This is a global semiconductor panic. That week, a brutal sell-off in technology stocks swept across Asia. The Kospi index in South Korea fell by 5.5%. Heavyweights like Samsung lost 7.4%. SK Hynix fell by more than 10%, and Japan's Tokyo Electron fell by 7.2%.
And what started this fire? Reports have emerged that Chinese memory chip maker CXMT is making rapid and unexpected technological advances. Suddenly, the market was gripped by panic that this newcomer could threaten the pricing policies and market share of the world's memory chip giants. And SoftBank, being so closely tied to the chip world through ARM, instantly found itself at the epicenter of the explosion.
And this needs to be superimposed on the broader macroeconomic environment, which, frankly, is incredibly stressful right now . Capital is expensive. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds is at a very high level of 5.2%. At the same time, the price of Brent crude oil is hovering around $104 per barrel.
And this is due to growing geopolitical risks and disruptions in shipping in the Middle East. Believe me, when oil is over $100 and risk-free bond yields exceed 5 %, investors become incredibly sensitive to risk. They stop being patient. They start demanding immediate profits and become very, very suspicious of expensive, future-oriented growth stocks.
Reality check of AI. Because, let's be honest , SoftBank is probably functioning mostly as a proxy for AI infrastructure right now. And it was at this time that a huge trust gap emerged in the AI sector. The market was completely stunned by the Open AI report. The market had previously signaled that Open AI's annual revenue was heading for a whopping $70 billion , but actual revenue as of the end of September was closer to $50 billion.
That's a $20 billion gap. For a company like SoftBank, which has a combined investment of $64.6 billion in Open AI, representing approximately 13% ownership, such a lag in projected revenue is a direct and severe blow to investor confidence. Now add this income gap to those challenging macroeconomic conditions we just talked about, and boom—you get an AI funding gap.
The next phase of AI is not just software that can be written in a garage. This is physical infrastructure. We're talking about chips, huge data centers, power grids. Giants such as Broadcom, Oracle, and SpaceX are actively seeking tens of billions of dollars for this construction. But the funding window is rapidly narrowing.
We even saw Australian operator Fermis completely postpone its planned $5 billion IPO simply due to market volatility. The mood has changed. Investors are effectively saying, “Enough of the grandiose promises about the future dominance of AI. Show me the cash flow today.” Okay, part three. Let's take a look at SoftBank's own ledger.
Finally, we must return to SoftBank itself. Remember that brilliant record net income of $35.4 billion? Well, the hidden truth buried under that number is a staggering Q4 operating loss of $2.88 billion. This corresponds to a negative operating margin of 20.4% for the quarter. You might be asking, " How can you have record net income and huge operating losses at the same time ?" The answer is accounting at market value.
The net income looks great as the value of their investments, particularly Arm, has increased on paper. But their actual daily operating cash flow is incredibly weak. Vision Fund Volatility. Look at the last five quarters. Their operating margin went from positive 10.8% in the first quarter , gradually declined , and then plummeted to negative 20.4% in the fourth.
Their underlying operating income remains fairly stable, at around 13 billion per quarter. But the margin fluctuates greatly depending on the market valuation of the various startups in their portfolio. This makes the company's quarterly performance extremely volatile and almost impossible to predict.
Structurally, SoftBank carries a huge concentration of risks . They are heavily dependent on a single asset. Their stake in the $165 billion chipmaker ARM represents 35% of its total asset value. Vision Fund holds 30%, and their telecommunications subsidiary holds 25%. So, if the semiconductor sector takes a sudden hit, as we just saw with the CXMT news out of China, a huge chunk of SoftBank's intrinsic value is instantly at risk.
It's like looking at two completely different companies combined into one. On one side is an anchor. This is ARM and the Japanese telecommunications business. They deliver stable growth, real cash flow, and fund multi-billion dollar share buyback programs. And on the other hand—the engine of volatility, Vision Fund .
It has a high level of borrowing, is completely dependent on the same market value fluctuations that we talked about, and carries extremely high risks. When market sentiment deteriorates, this engine of volatility becomes a burden that drags the entire ship to the bottom. And look, we can't ignore the main problem— leverage.
SoftBank operates with a massive net debt of $122.9 billion. To be fair , the ARM stake alone covers this debt, so there's no question of bankruptcy. But when you combine huge debt, significant investments in loss-making AI startups, and a sharp decline in tech stocks , credit markets start to get nervous.
It's understandable why SoftBank's credit default swaps, which are essentially Wall Street's insurance against the company's default, hit multi-year highs during this panic. So, we move on to the fourth part—a clash of views. After all, this 8.5% drop is not just another bad day in the markets. We are witnessing a massive, real-time clash between Wall Street's short-term fears and SoftBank's long-term strategy.
While the market panics over quarterly cash flows, high Treasury yields, and OpenAI's missing $20 billion, CEO Masayoshi Son remains completely calm. He directly stated that the artificial intelligence revolution will be about 50 times larger than the internet revolution of the early 2000s. He is known for thinking in decades, not quarters.
For Son, a market correction is not a reason to panic. It's simply a cheaper entry point to invest in a technological shift that he sincerely believes will change the course of human history. He views the Q4 operating loss as purely a timing factor, not a flaw in his core strategy. This brings us to the main question and thought we will leave you with for today.
Are we witnessing an irreversible crash in the AI sector, which is finally being crushed by the harsh realities of expensive capital and unproven business models? Or is this just a temporary minor correction in a much longer period of technological dominance? Because depending on what you value more— current measurable cash flow or future exponential opportunities— SoftBank's sharp 8.5% drop in shares is either a warning signal to exit or the best buying opportunity in a decade. Thank you for being with us.
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