저자: CNBC Television · 외국인
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Fundstrat의 Tom Lee는 나스닥 100이 지난주 3% 하락했음에도 올해 말 8,200 전망을 유지했다. 그는 전쟁, AI 투자, 채권시장, 연준, 인플레이션, 중간선거 등 많은 우려에도 시장이 버텨 왔다고 평가했다. 우려 중 하나라도 해소되면 관망 중인 자금이 시장으로 유입될 수 있다고 봤다. 중간선거에서는 거부권이 남아 교착이 이어질 것이며 시장은 이를 선호한다고 설명했다.
다듬은 글
The aforementioned Tom Lee is here. The NASDAQ 100 lost 3% last week. The futures were bouncing back a little this morning. Uh there's a Halloween's over, Tom, but there's a literally a witch's brew of of of things in this uh cauldron. Yeah, exactly. We got tricks uh on Friday on on mischief night overall though.
And and I don't know, you're not jumping up and down like sometimes you do, but you still think maybe 8,200 by the end of this year. You you Yes. You want to say that or you want to sort of say it or you want to say it this way? You you think it's going to happen? Yeah, I think you do. Okay. I do think markets are going to exit the year strong, but they have been struggling.
you know, like underneath the surface, it's been a real battle. And I think everyone I speak to is nervous about one of many things, right? The war, AI spending, the debt markets, the Fed, inflation, midterms, and I think the markets held up really well in the face of all that. And as you know, markets climb a wall of worry.
So, I think if we get some clearing of any of these things, then we can really see money come off the sidelines. And uh just to get one of them out of the way in terms of a clearing event, you think the midterms would be a clearing event. And Donald Trump is not on well, he says he's on the ballot. Maybe he is in in in some ways, but he's not.
And he the veto pen will be intact even if both uh houses of Congress go to the Democrats. So you still view that as gridlock which is not going to be that much of a a surprise to the markets. Correct. I think markets in some ways prefer gridlock because then you don't have too much policy creep. Um so the presidential vetos is still very important.
I do think one thing that investors are worried about is like data centers if the Democrats take the Senate and House. But I I'm going to take the contrarian view that Democrat House Democrats will support AI post midterms because it does bring money to their communities. So I think it's sort of a an important voting issue today, but I think at the end of the day, it's good for jobs and it's good for the economy,
right? It it definitely was a political football for both uh both parties. Do you uh you have a you know sort of a a nonconsensus view of a lot of things. Do you have a view on prediction markets? Are they better than polls or are they based on polls? Do do you think there's any surprises, major surprises possible on Tuesday or you think they get it right this time?
One thing I'm wrestling with is in 2024 the prediction markets varied so much from the polls. Um they were in 2024 they showed Donald Trump very strong relative to the polls and I thought that was a lot of signal. But in this 2026 midterm, the polls and the prediction markets are almost the same. So, I'm not sure they're generating signal on the margin.
Um cuz they're both basically showing a Democratic suite. Uh and that's why I think it'll be interesting cuz I I think a lot of the folks like that I know in Texas are saying that Texas could be a surprise where uh you know, maybe the Republicans fare better than we expect. So, I don't it's a good question, but I I don't think it's as much signal as it was in 2024,
right? Just the uh I don't know how polls are conducted uh at this point. Is it still on on mobile phones? Are Republicans not picking up the phones? I I I just don't know. And if it's if it's a Yeah, if it's a 1 or 2% even 3% out of 1500 people in a state where there's hundreds of thousands of people, I I still I just I don't know there.
But you know there is something called statistical analysis and there are enough people supposedly that if you pull in in in a somewhat objective way you should be able to come up with a statistically that's why it's called statistically significant. You ought to be able to to come up with something sort of accurate.
No. Yeah. I think if I was to guess and I'm not I'm not predicting a political outcome but I would say that the bigger surprise would be Republicans doing better. uh would be a surprise just because the prediction markets and the polls are so aligned.
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