저자: TGInvesting채널진행자 · 외국인
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마이클 버리의 2021년 2분기 13F 공시 기준 포트폴리오 변화를 분석한 영상이다. 결론: 버리는 테슬라 풋옵션 확대와 ARK 공매도로 포트폴리오의 약 40%를 하락 베팅에 두고 있으며, 진행자는 이 베팅의 성패가 테슬라 급락 여부에 달렸다고 본다. 테슬라 베팅: 풋옵션 100만 주 이상(약 7억 3천만 달러 상당, 행사가 1,000달러 2022년 1월물 예시), 포트폴리오의 35% 이상. 테슬라 주가 816달러 부근, 손익분기 약 803달러. 테슬라 밸류에이션: 시가총액 약 8,000억 달러로 주요 자동차 기업 합산보다 크지만 순이익은 매우 작다는 점을 지적. ARK 베팅: 포트폴리오의 약 5%(추정) 규모로 ARK 풋옵션 보유, ARK는 테슬라 약 10% 보유, 코인베이스 고점 매수로 부진. 구글(알파벳) 콜옵션 92,000계약(약 2억 3천만 달러, 지분 약 15%)과 페이스북 상승 베팅 보유, 페이스북은 내부고발 사태 이후 약 328달러. 채권: 20년 국채(TLT) 풋옵션으로 금리 상승(채권 하락)에 베팅, 인플레이션 장기화 전망 근거. 리스크: 테슬라 광신도 매수세로 하락 저항, 옵션 만기 시 휴지조각 위험, 장기 옵션은 프리미엄이 비싸다. 출연자 전망: 버리의 테슬라·ARK 하락 베팅, 구글·페이스북 상승 베팅, 금리 상승 베팅은 설득력 있다고 보나 테슬라 하락은 확신하지 않는다고 정리.
다듬은 글
what is going on everybody it's tg here and i thought i'd bring you guys a very important video and an update video on michael bury also known as the big short and his massive bet against tesla and his massive bullish position on companies like google and facebook we're gonna break down his portfolio along with his bet against inflation and his massive bet against ark innovation and tesla before saw this video if you guys watched hit that like subscribe button it means a ton to me but let's jump right into this video so mike berry of san jose a guy who gets his hair cut at supercuts and doesn't wear shoes knows more than alan greenspan and hank paulson oh yeah doctor mike berry yes he does recently the 13 f filings for hedge funds came out showing quarter two position updates on all the hedge funds and we got to see what michael bury was doing the biggest and most notable one was his massive increase to his tesla short if we look at it a bunch of months ago it talked about how he had 800 000 tesla shares that was shorted now that number is over a million tesla shares shorted by owning put contracts this is valued at over 731 million dollars actually a little less now because tesla has risen significantly since this 13 filing was updated when tesla was sitting right around here in the mid 700s and is now trading at 816 a share this is a massive bet for michael bury and for his hedge fund one of the reasons being it represents over 35 percent of his entire portfolio is in this bet against tesla and it's not just his bet against tesla it's also his bet against arc that takes up a smaller percentage obviously but still a couple percent of his portfolio totaling in total almost 40 percent of his entire portfolio is betting against tesla and betting against ark which if you notice art owns 10 of tesla in their fund this is a massive massive bet and michael berry has been very adamant on twitter and active talking about why he is betting against tesla he says elon musk from short tesla talks about how basically if if elon wanted he could dilute shares 25 to 50 and raise enough capital to um to basically solidify himself and his company as you know a powerhouse um and obviously the stock would go down because of dilution but there would be buyers um he goes in and talks about all the numbers with tesla talks about how you know they don't make much money and how other companies make so much more and i found this this chart very interesting as well if you look at the leading automotive companies in the world and you look at how much they make and how much they're valued at um tesla makes almost the least amount of profit only about 1 billion and yet they are valued at the number one and if you look at what they're valued at this was back a while ago when it was 67 73 billion tesla is significantly higher than that now and is trading at over 800 billion um so you look at that you look at something that's 800 billion tesla's worth more than almost all of these automative companies combine now obviously tesla is not just a car company it is a tech company as well but its primary revenue stream comes from uh vehicles now that is one of the biggest reasons you know dr berry has pointed out and talks about you know that the company just doesn't make money it only besides the credits that they make is what they're making money from um and you know this bet is is one that you know can really shake up his entire fund um you know obviously he's doing good positions and stuff like facebook and alphabet which is obviously very important facebook did take a bit of a hit recently with the whole whistleblower scandal um and their stocks trading around 328 dollars a share as of right now it is up a little bit today but obviously you know very bullish on on facebook as well and you know added to his position significantly um but one of the most notable ones is his bet against inflation um now he is buying the 20-year treasury bonds um owning puts against him she's betting against it and he's adding to that significantly um he he talks about um that he's not making against bonds but making a bet against the system so the bearish options would make money if treasury yields go up and consequently um the tlt exchange would fall if this happens so um you know they're they're betting very big against this and um you know just talking and basically betting against um the system and talking about how inflation is going to run so rampant that the interest rates have to rise um and the treasury yields have to go up because of that now this is actually a bet that a lot of people do think is going to pan out very well a lot of people are skeptical on the tesla bet just because one it makes up so much of his portfolio two tesla has a a cult following that is something that we've never seen before except in the meme stocks like gamestop and amc where regardless whether bad news comes out no news comes out good news they're going to buy up the stock like crazy um and the only real way that the tesla train stops is if there's a massive crash and so many of these traders who are trading on margin because tesla's one of the securities that are heavily bought on margin um if that happens it will cause a massive crash and i think that's something that very's betting on is a crash to happen and when people sell you know they're going to be selling stocks that are more like that stocks with p e ratios in the 500 rather than stocks like alphabet or facebook with p e ratios in the 20s or 30s um and that's another that's another topic his bullish bet on alphabet um which is the parent company of google um you know google is considered one of if not the most innovative companies in the entire world and has just seen their stock increase massively over over the past decades um you know with their acquisitions of facebook or part of the acquisitions of youtube and you know their their advertising business and their their search platform um you know this is this is huge and um cyanolan's 92 000 call options that are worth over 230 million um that represent a 15 stake in in his company now this is obviously huge and one of the things that i really like about google is their free cash flow the company makes a lot of profit they make a lot of profit if you look at their earnings orders every quarter they're making a ton of profit and so that's a great company that he owns but um it all really comes down to the tesla bet um when you're looking at it you're wondering you know is this train able to stop um you know it hasn't it pulled back a little bit in um in may and when everything was kind of taking a bit of a hit but i mean these guys buy the dip like it's nothing and we see that over and over and over again the dips continue to get bought and it doesn't stop so depending on where tesla price ends up potentially michael berry could lose all of that all of that money and and the reason i say that is because if the puts expire worthless then he loses everything so for instance if he bought um because they don't disclose exactly what strike price and what expiration date he bought but let's say for instance he's a round number he bought the 1 000 strike price of tesla for next january if tesla stock price continues to rise and goes above one thousand dollars a share those puts are now out of the money and and when those puts are out of the money at expiration date those puts are are worth not then the swaps contracts are avoided and then the banks uh get to keep on wait a minute wait all of it what the contracts are voided the contract's avoided holy nothing on the date of expiration so if we actually if we actually look at this from from a standpoint i want to show you guys a prime example on on robinhood of what this looks like because a lot of people are not very familiar with how options work because they are they're kind of risky so we'll use this robinhood account and show an example of this if we go over to tesla and and we look at this we can clearly see what can happen while training tesla options so for instance right now if we go and buy a put on tesla that is let's use that exact exact example um we'll use january 2022 and we buy a put for a 1 000 strike price so we go all the way up here and we buy one put and right there that is going to cost us 19 000 to buy that put now this little chart right here is something that's pretty interesting uh we can see you know if test is at a certain price at a certain date we can see how much we make how much we lose um on that so our break-even price is 803 dollars a share and if if tesla decreases in value obviously we make more on those but let's say tesla is above 1 000 a share by that price we lose everything we lose all thousand six hundred eight dollars because it will expire worthless so that's the risk in in bets like this i'm sure he went out much much farther um you know giving himself a ton of time but also again you go out farther let's say he goes on an extra year these puts are ridiculously more expensive because the intrinsic value that they hold um so you know that instead of being worth nineteen thousand it's worth twenty nine thousand so that extra year you have to pay an extra ten thousand dollars per contract to do that and so that's what i think michael berry is doing um and again this represents a total of 35 percent of his portfolio with the with the ark bet um that takes up about 40 so we're looking at almost half of his portfolio is strictly betting against basically tesla and these innovative companies now arc is obviously a lot different if we actually look at arc right now arc has not been doing too well this year um it has obviously has done you know decently overall but you look at the past year where it was um at least in february even year to date um you know this company your day started off like the 130s 140s got as high as 156 and has pulled back hard since um they made a very bad bet with coinbase stock um buying heavily on the ipo and you know they paid the price for it because if we look at coinbase stack um it has fallen hard and you gotta love spectrum internet you really gotta love spectrum internet and how great of a company uh spectrum is uh with this amazing wi-fi connection um pay a bunch of money for it and does it does absolutely nothing but coinbase initially jumped up to over 420 a share and pulled back hard since um i uh i don't know how i feel about coinbase the competition in in in the crypto sector is insane um and this is a company where 98.7 of their revenue comes in just from fees alone so again if the robin hood effect happens we made a video about that a company makes um a platform where you can trade commission free um with crypto uh kind of makes coinbase almost obsolete so and that's why one of the reasons he's been against it's so big but you know you're betting against tesla and you know some of these companies as well these innovative futuristic companies so yeah guys it's going to be interesting to see what happens with this bet um i think it'll uh it'll be interesting to see over the next couple of couple of quarters when the new 13 filings come out we can actually look over them and break them down but overall let me know your thoughts on this guys if you want hop in the discord and chat with me i would love to talk to you guys about it but anyways have a wonderful day and i'll see you guys in the next video take it easy guys bye
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