저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 듀치브로스(BROS)는 훌륭한 기업이지만 IPO 후 급등으로 현 주가(약 53달러)는 너무 뜨거워 지금 추천하지 않으며, 40달러 부근 조정 시 매수를 고려하라는 입장. [종목 평가] 듀치브로스는 오리건 기반 커피 체인으로 매장당 연평균 매출 약 170만 달러, 평균 객단가 약 7.5달러로 음료 업계 최상위권 수익성을 보인다고 설명. [성장성] 2021년 6월 말 기준 471개 매장(11개 주). 지난 12개월간 70개 매장 추가(전년비 17% 증가), 신규 사이트 250곳 확보. 장기 목표 4,000개 매장은 지나치게 보수적이라고 봄. [실적] 상반기 매출 성장률 51%, 기존 매장 동일매출 성장률 8.2%(직영점 9.6%). 2018년 EBITDA 4,000만 달러 → 2020년 7,000만 달러, 2021년 상반기 약 4,600만 달러(전년비 29%). [밸류에이션] 시가총액 약 78~87억 달러, 매장당 가치 약 1,840만 달러로 스타벅스(매장당 400만 달러 미만) 대비 크게 높음. 2021년 예상 EBITDA 7,300만 달러 기준 약 120배, 2024년 EBITDA 기준 약 40배. 스타벅스 20배, 웨잉스탑 58배와 비교해 과도하다고 판단. [리스크] 과거 쉐이크쉑 사례처럼 IPO 후 과열 주가가 크게 조정될 수 있음. 내부자 매도 제한(락업) 해제 시점(내년)도 부담 요인. 주가가 40달러 부근까지 하락하면 매수 고려 가능. [분석가 전망] IPO 직후 커버리지 개시 분석가 다수가 매수 의견(8개 매수, 1개 보유)을 냈으나, 진행자는 이를 과열 신호로 해석. [기타] 보스턴비어(SAM)는 하드 seltzer 사업 의존도 등을 이유로 회피 권고. 전반적으로 기업 펀더멘털은 긍정적이나 현 가격대는 관망 권고.
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i always say beware the hype when the beloved brand comes public with a bang and then its stock keeps soaring you need to exercise some restraint because sometimes these deals are too hot to handle even ones i love take dutch pro the oregon based coffee chain that had its public debut a month ago now i love dutch bro i used to go there all the time when my daughter lived in ashland oregon i'm addicted to this stuff the coffee is incredible they got these really cool parking lot kiosks and the annihilator that may be the hottest octane drink i have ever had and i crave octane in my coffee but after another four percent rally today the stock is golden hot i don't know what to do i don't want you to get burned i want you in this stock so bad but i'm afraid i'm gonna hurt you see dutch bro came public at 23 bucks last month well above the proposed price range then it traded it opened at 32.50 giving anyone who got in on the deal a huge gain but then within days that it's spike to the mid 50s just kept going and going it'll pull back to 41 last week when the market was rolling over it's rebounded like crazy over the last two days trading back up to 53 why the recovery because the quiet period for analyst coverage ended and a host of bullish analysts just rushed to initiate coverage i get that by my account thus bro now has eight buy ratings and only one hold and it's kind of a cold thing i remember saying to my daughter let's go to a dutch brothers and she's like dad it's dutch bro everybody knows it's dutch bro who knows it was dutch bro what's it look like to you anyway initially i was cautious of the stock no after you know another 32 wow that's but i i worried that it'd come up too far too fast but after seeing these bullsh initiations i know i'm probably too conservative because the numbers are incredible unfortunately i still fear that dutch bro may be set say too hot and could burn you there is a price where i'd be telling you to buy this one hand over fist but it it's not 53 it's not 60 either where i sense it's headed allow me to explain first as a business i can't praise dushpro enough they give you delicious high quality coffee very powerful coffee and they serve it fast with a brilliant drive-through operation they were they were way ahead of the curve on handling throughput which meant dutch bro was perfectly positioned for the pandemic more important this is a stunning regional to national growth story and we love those see dutch bro had a 471 locations in 11 states the end of june and they've still got a ton of room to expand around the country i mean look at this map now of course i went to this one to this one this one five times to this one many times this one and this one is killer maybe the best of all they're huge in the pacific northwest and the footprints gradually spreading through off the southwest although they're just getting started if oregon my beloved oregon can support 153 locations and there's like nobody in oregon you have to believe they can squeeze a lot more out than 89 stores in california seven in texas they could put up seven thousand and that's before they even touch the rest of the country long-term management thinks they can put up four thousand stores nationwide before this situation situation saturation i think that's way too low i think they can do many more than that they've already identified 250 new sites again they only have 471 stores the end of june so the growth pipeline is locked and loaded it's look at the point look at this i remember when when uh dunkin donuts was had to go east west and people just said uh well jim you shouldn't like that stock but it went up and up and up as they put more and more stores that's dutch bro going this way it is going to be incredible it's no surprise that people look at dutch bro and see the last big coffee chain that got it start in pacific northwest and then took the world by sword yeah no kidding what am i really talking about i'm talking about starbucks like starbucks they got an ethos although it's very different from starbucks dutch pro is very very focused on the customer experience and the so is kevin johnson starbucks but listen to me they don't just remember your name their system remembers your past orders i'm telling you it's surreal they had my annihilator drink down after just a half dozen visits i felt like dust bro was my home at the same time the drive-through concept it's not that good you're in a kiosk it's not a great home but i've lived in my car for a while that wasn't so bad it allows them to handle a ton of volume the stores are typically less than a thousand square feet but they stick them on 25 000 square foot lots to handle all the car volume that's allowed them to put up some magnificent get this last year dutch bro store which is just again the size of like this okay it's like this i'm not kidding it's like that okay where'd those lines go um that average unit volume of 1.7 million dollars can you imagine a space this big makes them among the best in the beverage business maybe the best it's an insanely high amount average check size roughly 7 and 50 cents coffee is that cheap excellent for beverage their new drive through focus hops designed specifically to capture demand during peak hours have generated 40 more sales than the older models on average they expect new locations to generate two-year cash flow and cash returns ranging from 35 to 75 percent that's ludicrous while more than half of their locations are currently franchises management now focus more on company owned stores because the unit economics are just too attractive to pass up okay that's chipotle and look business is indeed booming in the first six months of the year dutch pro had 8.2 percent same for sales growth and that number was 9.6 for the company-owned stores just as important they're putting up new stores like crazy remember this is a regional national grocery keep emphasizing that because it's the best kind it means it's all about expansion in the last 12 months they added 70 locations that's a 17 increase year of year i think they're putting up too slow put it all together and dutchbow racked up 51 revenue growth in the first half a major risk a major acceleration from the 33 compounded annual growth rate over the previous three years even better the companies profitable although in recent years the earnings have taken a hit as employees cash in their stock options however when you look at the earnings before interest taxes depreciation amortization that's ebitda for short you can see a pretty clear positive trajectory from 40 million in 2018 70 million last year just in the first half of 2021 came in at nearly 46 million that's up 29 year so i it is killing me i would love to recommend the annihilator's parent dutch bro i think you got they got some bright future i want you to have a piece of it but i i can't just do it i can't just say today is the day to buy dutch belt which brings me to my one concern problem is it's in it's one of those situations where i would say i don't know it's it's just valuation there isn't anything else wrong with this thing nothing it but it's an overwhelming concern dust broke currently has a market capitalization of roughly 7 8.7 billion you could argue that wall street is valuing each store remember the kiosk would give you that size again kiosk is 18 and 18.4 million dollars 18.4 million dollars for this okay do you think this is worth it if i had a little you know a thing right although a little it's a little reductive because people like this this one for all this new stores they'll put up that's how you have to you can't just look at it like in a constant state still when you run the same same numbers for starbucks each store is valued at less than four million no wonder the starbucks people didn't like it when i suggested they buy dutch pro after i became a regular ashland stores and discovered if i had an annihilator on thursday i did not need to go to sleep till saturday what if we judge it based on ibita there are or instead of just octane there are a lot of bullish analysts here who expect the company to do 73 million dollars in ebitda this year meaning the stocks trading at just 120 times that number 920 times earnings 120 times earnings before all the bad stuff gets subtracted even if we use the estimates for the out years it's selling for nearly 40 times the ebitda consensus for 2024 by comparison starbucks trades it 20 times this year's ebitda space that's not the best compare because starbucks is much further along on its lifecycle but even a smaller faster growing chain like one that we like called wing stop trades at 58 times ebitda less than half of people are willing to pay for the dutch bro so let me tell you what i'm concerned about my chief concern is that rather than being the next starbucks dashboard maybe it could be the next shake shack that's another chain that i love to go to shake shack came public at 21 nearly seven years ago then the stock jumped to just under 46 at the end of its first day within a few months it didn't reach the 90s but a year later shake shack was sunk to the 30s because the stock was simply too hot if you bought shake shack down there you've done very well for yourself but you had to wait for the right moment and by the way shakespeare did not have the kind of growth ahead even you know it's great growth but nothing like the bro bottom line when a great company like dutch pro has a super hyped ipo and the stock explodes higher because people like the product so much you got to keep the bat on the shoulder i think you can start buying this one if it drops down to 40 or some sort of crazy sell-off but i wouldn't be surprised if it gets there when the lock up on insider selling expires next year but this is one of the rare times that i have to tell you i want you in this stock i just don't want you in the stock at this price let's go to tyler massachusetts please tyler adrian big booyah from here we are back all right had a quick question about boston beer companies want to get your take on it after being 60 down into the buy or sell no i mean look it yeah i had to deal with constellation the other day and constellation had a bad missile uh on this hard shelter do you imagine if like most your business is hard seltzer that's sam that's boston bureau i said stay away from by about 400 points and i'm reiterating i don't want you in that stock i'd rather have you in the dutchman all right when a beloved brand like dutch bro comes public with a bang and stock keeps soaring i am saying that as great as these are they're a little calorie prone after that uh you gotta exercise some strain and i love this stuff i don't want you to get burned by the one of the greatest coffee chain ideas that is being executed right now in this country either you can start buying the stock of dutch bro under 40 much more money ahead but keep it in mind i have to exercise caution and if you sneak a few shares in right now i get it we're going to have uber freight on later that emit a trucker shortage how is this important division of uber working to ease the tension a division that you've never heard of i'm talking the co-founder and head of this and the head of that division then there's a lot to be said about today's amazing quarter of mac america but there's one that hasn't been said and i'm going to tell you about it the annihilator oh man i could if when after the eagles win i could have five annihilators and then i'd see you on wednesday all right now i owe your calls rapid fire in tonight's edition of the lightning round so stay with k
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