저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 시장 비관론이 과도하며, 최근 랠리는 단순 반등이 아니라 문제 해결 가능성에 대한 상식적 인식의 결과이므로 투자자는 덜 냉소적이어야 한다. 시장 분위기: 다우 535포인트 급등, S&P500 1.71%, 나스닥 1.73% 상승. 최근 6주간 비관론이 지배했으나 BofA·유나이티드헬스·모건스탠리의 호실적으로 실적 랠리 성격도 있다고 진단. 비관론 비판: 언론과 '비관론자 억만장자'는 통찰력 있어 보이려 부정적 발언을 하지만, 장기적으로 강세론자가 약세론자보다 성과가 좋았다. 사이프러스, 후쿠시마, 스리마일 섬 사태 등 과거 공포도 현실화되지 않았다. 경제 문제 진단: 공급망 병목(항만 적체)은 바이든 행정부 개입으로 해결 국면이며 일부 기업 마진 축소는 있겠지만 위기는 끝날 것. 반도체 부족은 자동차 업체(포드 등)가 직접 파운드리 투자로 대응할 가능성이 있다고 봄. 소비·노동: 소비자 재무상태는 매우 탄탄하며 저소득층도 팬데믹 이전 대비 현금이 약 5배. 노동 부족은 출산·이민 부족과 일부의 경력 휴식 선택에서 기인. 종목/자산 언급: 자동차·가전 업체, TSMC(대만 반도체), 반도체 장비 기업(램리서치, KLA, 어플라이드머티리얼즈) 언급 — 방향성 예측은 명시적으로 없음. 전망: 9월~10월 초 약세에서 계절성 구간이 끝나 '더 건설적(constructive)'으로 전환했다고 밝힘. 1~3개월 구체적 지수·자산 가격 방향 예측은 발언하지 않음.
다듬은 글
eeper welcome to mad money welcome to camera i'd be one of my friends i'm just trying to make you a little money my job is not just entertaining you but dedicate and teach you on days like today our next question since when did optimism become such a darn scarce commodity on wall street after a day where the dow surged 535 points s p up one point seven one percent nasdaq poll voting one point seven three percent i think it's time to rethink the pervasive sense of pessimism and gloom that has set in over the last six weeks pessim that is occasionally busted by one of these one day skyrockets now some would say today's move is merely a relief rally if there's so much negativity others might call it a joke of a move that will suck people in and cause them to lose fortunes you could argue it's an earnings rally after superb numbers from bank of america united health and morgan stanley which is closer to the truth but i think it's bigger than that this rally is about the common sense realization that our current problems can be fixed as companies turn challenges into opportunities no it's not a cliche focus you would know that for most the media covers because journalists love to ask people about what's going wrong what keeps them up at night you know what keeps me up at night i'll tell you what keeps me up at night this thing this ragu he keeps getting into bed that's what keeps you up at night anyway you're trying to talk about what's going right you're branding an idiot the easiest way to sound smart on television is by being really negative then you get a lot of extra credibility and especially if you're rich these people these negative nay bobs they always sound so insightful when they read about how we're headed for disaster sometimes they listen i wax product i said oh my god oh geez i mean wow that's gonna happen but historically the bulls have done much better long term than the bears so maybe the bearish billionaires aren't actually the smartest guys in the room maybe they were just maybe they just made it over a couple of quarters you know they got it right now all we ever hear about is how brilliant they are don't take it from me though i was searching and searching searching for analog and i found it i want you to take it from arguably the most visibly smart person in america today he a man by the name of madam modia he's the guy who just won 38 straight games of jeopardy bagging 1.5 million dollars in one of the longest winning streaks ever david faber my partner on squawk on the street got to meet this young man during the week that he guest hosted he crushed it jeopardy and he came on our morning show today naturally we asked him what he's going to do with the 1.5 million dollars listen to matt's answer i'm gonna do long-term invest and hold so uh i i'm not there on the day-to-day trading it's too much for me to keep track of but you know index funds paired with a small amount of bonds with yearly uh rebalancing like what how can you go wrong right okay i love that guy i think the pessimist would dismiss the man you just heard as someone who just fell off of a turnip truck even though he's a full-time graduate student from new haven if you catch my drift who cleaned up on jeopardy i think he's smart as a whip especially when he went on to say that he deployed the bond portion of his money because it's short term to buy stocks if there was a market plunge he has faith in the market as a wealth creator he is who i want you to be now is madame odo really the smartest man in america right now all right hey you try winning jeffrey 38 times in a row all came inside he's certainly not dumb money and i got to tell you my family is a jeopardy family so this guy is a family hero now let me tell you why matt will be right and the doom and gloom sayers will be wrong the bears are just so cynical so jaded that they've forgotten the lessons of history time and again we've had looming catastrophes that just sort of faded away as people took action to stop them like cyprus i don't know if you remember there was a period where cyprus was supposed to end the universe you know fukushima in the universe three mile island in the universe didn't happen and yet that's where we find ourselves now i think the problems plaguing this economy are preludes to nothing they aren't harbingers of disaster they may not even rise to a financial disaster for 200 jeopardy question as long as the bears don't scare you away from the market as long as you can withstand the withering interstitial machine gun fire that they throw at you every single day then you can make it to the promised land of milk and honey yes terrific days like today i say that as someone who is very bearish for most of september and the first week of october but now that the seasonally week period is drawn to a close i have no choice but to get more construct constructive so i don't come in here one day and say i'm bullish no we as i said you get to the end of the month you gotta be more bullish first let's take the poor congestion issue which got everybody so scared all of a sudden right it's been going on for months but now we're suddenly discovering about it we've got lots of ships with lots of cargo too much cargo so they're just sitting there waiting to be unloaded we need more longshoremen to do the unloading intractable no beatable somehow this story which has been simmering for months i mean literally months with everyone involved blaming everyone else finally got the attention of the president united states whether he loved biden or hate him he brought everyone who stands the game from fixing this problem together and while i'm sure the first band-aids won't work eventually to get the job done some people will be making a lot more money including uber truck drivers as you will hear tonight and some businesses will have to slightly lower their margins if a lot of poor crisis will be over what about all this nonsense about how your packages won't get there in time for christmas i mean i mean can we just talk about a first world problem please some sure yeah yeah sure some companies might not have enough merchandise but their competitors will that's just the brutal darwinian logic of capitalism slash retail the bold fact is the grinch ain't getting this one and look if you're really worried about the holidays you still got two more than two months to go i mean go to the internet okay concocted story second semiconductor shortage yes practically everything that needs chips is being cut back i believe in the auto copies the appliance makers it's hitting everybody we just heard from taiwan semi the biggest chip manufacturer in the world reported a terrific quarter just last night because demand is off the charts however if you listen to the conference call you know that taiwan semi doesn't make many automotive chips as percentage of its whole book of business they ain't no savior what's going to happen now in a rational world and you know that i think this world is at least semi-rational companies won't simply sit there and do nothing if i were running automaker say ford i call the major semiconductor companies and say who wants to cooperate with me on a new foundry by putting up all the money that we need to get equipment from land research kla applied materials the testing companies clean rooms those really cool uh you know what shower caps you got to put on we keep puri well some do we keep hearing that all these auto chips make so little money for the semiconductor manufacturers that they just aren't worth it and so the price is somehow set in stone you know how wrong this is maybe the ships only cost two or three dollars a piece in the past but now there were thousands of dollars in lost sales to ford and gm so why wouldn't they just find a partner and make their own even if it costs 200 per chip i can solve this for them myself i know how to do it i went to the israeli intel fab on a saturday i was the only one there anyway i can go one-on-one about these terrible tales of financial terror and that won't even rise to a single deadly double jeopardy or i don't like those ones too where someone's singing and stuff let's stick to the real stuff but let me leave you with one more wall street's tearing his hair out good luck about all the lost workers and beleaguered consumers who are supposedly being eaten alive by inflation right i mean but if you listen to the bank of america or morgan stanley conference calls you know the consumers about is maybe the most flush in my lifetime my lifetime has been i've been around for a while in fact among the less wealthy on average people are five times more flushed than they were before the pandemic man began you heard me 5x the real trouble comes when people are dead not when they're in cash for heaven's sake right now though consumer balance sheets are so strong that it's obvious we have a labor shortage we need more births in this country we need more immigration you'll hear about that from domino's many of the missing workers are people who stepped away from the workforce because they can afford to take some time off maybe there are a lot of people after 700 deaths and so many 20 million people that may have a long cover maybe there are a lot of people who who want to rethink their lives actually take the time to ponder because they have the money and they can here's a question for you why should pondering only be the province of the rich is that really an intractable problem to ponder and think and wonder what you should be doing in your life is it even a problem at all the bottom line i urge you to imagine that the seemingly intractable as tractable believe that guys like matamodia so cool under fire are smarter than the permanent bears who somehow never get hassled about being wrong but are catered to and treated like royalty and i hate it let's all be a little less cynical so we can try to make a little more money for all the people who don't have enough
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