Howard Marks - Learning From Past Market Crashes

요약 보기

2008년 금융위기 당시의 투자 교훈을 되짚는 영상이다. 결론: 극단적 공포기에는 정교한 분석보다 현금과 과감히 매수하는 용기가 핵심이며, 2008년 말 시장 공포 속 매수가 큰 수익의 원천이었다. 배경: 70년대 투자업계는 채용이 어려웠고, 과거 사이클을 경험한 인재 풀이 매우 좁다. 서브프라임 과잉레버리지로 大형 은행과 투자은행이 무너지며 '세상의 종말' 공포가 확산되었다. 당시 상황: 증권·대출 가격이 폭락하고 거래가 얼어붙었으며, 내일 시장이 존재할지조차 불확실했다. Marks는 루스벨트의 '두려워해야 할 것은 두려움 그 자체' 발언을 인용해 비합리적 공포를 지적했다. 의사결정 논리: 세상이 끝난다고 확신하면 대응 자체가 불가능하고, 대부분은 세상이 끝나지 않는다. 투자했는데 세상이 끝나면 어차피 상관없고, 투자하지 않았는데 세상이 유지되면 직무를 다하지 못한 것이라는 단순 계산을 제시했다. 실행: Oaktree는 2008년 마지막 15주 동안 주당 약 6억5천만 달러, 총 약 100억 달러를 투입했다. 이 시기에는 보수성·리스크 통제·선별보다 자금과 실행 의지가 필요하다고 주장했다. 전략 결론: 신용시장은 2008년 후반, 주식시장은 2009년 초에 자금을 가진 투자자가 큰 수익을 얻는 기회였다. 출연자 전망: 특정 자산의 1~3개월 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 예측은 없었고, 공포 국면에서의 역발상 매수에 대한 일반 원칙만 언급했다. 이 영상은 2020년 3월 코로나 폭락 시기에 게시된 것으로 보이며, 과거 위기 교훈을 현재에 적용하려는 맥락이다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. to have been in the investment business no.8 and to have the experience of 74 you had to be working by definition 34 years but the truth of the matter is that the investment business was terrible in the decade of the 70s you couldn't get a job in the 70s I know people classmates of mine from grad school who wanted to go into investment business but rather than get out in 69 and I did they got out and suddenly they couldn't get a job in the investment is for their whole lives and they dug in in other fields but the point is you had to have your job in the 60s and that means bio 8 you had to be working more than 40 years how many people work more than 40 years so by definition the pool of people with with the recognition of the past pattern is is very small and you know clearly we ran into very difficult problems the over investment on high leverage in the subprime products in o56 cause the you know the loss of some of the most important banks and investment banks and people started talking about the end of the world and security prices melted down loan prices melted down and activity froze because everybody was uncertain will there be a tomorrow if I buy anything today will it will there be a market tomorrow will it have any value tomorrow and all the quiddity dried up and as I say people were talking about the end of the world and it was the most pronounced cycle that that that we've lived through but still there was really no reason I mean I kept thinking about what Roosevelt said the only thing we have to fear is fear itself people were just afraid there weren't afraid of anything rational they were just afraid and what you had to do is you had to keep your wits and you know one of the hopes is that if you read history if you if you read the book if you understand cycles you will be able to to reduce the emotional influences at that time and cut through them and and maybe we'll just say keep your wits about you so we concluded in late Oh eight after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers put the markets into freefall that you know will the will the financial world end or not and what we said was that it's hard to predict the end of the financial world if you conclude that the financial world will and it's hard to have any idea what to do and most of the time the financial world doesn't end we also made a very simple calculation should we buy or not well if we invest and the financial world ends kind of doesn't matter but if we don't invest and the financial world doesn't end then we didn't do our job so by that you know here we are in an environment where really people had no idea what was coming next and we're talking about the end the world and I thought the analysis was rather simple that we had to buy so at oaktree we invested six hundred and fifty million dollars a week in the last fifteen weeks of of Oh 8 that's about 10 billion and that's really all you had to do it almost didn't matter what you did as long as you bought and it was a point in time in the cycle and these points in time come along every once awhile where you don't need conservatism caution risk control discipline patience or selectivity you need money and the nerve to spend it and if you had money in earth to spend it in in late Oh 8 in the credit market or early Oh 9 in the stock market you've made a ton of money and by playing that cycle