저자: AndrewYoung · 외국인
요약 보기
마이크론은 2018년 상반기 추천 이후 상승했으나 6월 현재 64~70달러 저항에서 밀린 하락 추세 초입으로 보고, 56~60달러 지지 확인이 필요하다고 봄. 기술적 분석: 4시간봉 기준 하락 추세, RSI 약한 약세 다이버전스. 1차 지지 56~57달러(6월 1일 테스트), 2차 지지 53달러(장기 상승추세선과 겹침), 저항 64달러. 실적: 마이크론은 실적 상회에도 발표 후 하락하는 경향이 있으나, 최근 반도체 낙관론 확산으로 이번에는 상승 돌파 가능성도 있다고 언급. 펀더멘털: 한때 PER 4배 수준까지 저평가. 메모리 산업의 사이클(상승 후 급락) 우려는 있으나 스마트카·IoT·파일 용량 증가로 메모리 수요는 지속될 것으로 봄. 인텔과 3D 관련 협력 언급. 밸류에이션: PSR·PBR·P/CF 모두 합리적, PEG 0.2로 성장 잠재력 높다고 평가. 자사주 매입: 9월경 시작 예정, 주가에 소폭 긍정적. 목표가: 연말 목표 80달러 유지. 단기 방향은 예측 어렵다고 하며 상승·횡보·하락 세 시나리오 제시. 장기적으로는 보유할 만한 주식이라는 입장. 리스크: 메모리 사이클 재진입 우려, 실적 발표 후 차익실현 가능성.
다듬은 글
and what is up everyone Andrew here and in today's video I will be revisiting micron so the first time I took a look at micron was way back in my top 5 stocks for 2018 video and in that video I think I said that micron was my number 2 stock to have it 2018 and if you bought at let's just say January 1st you would be up almost 50% so micron has done very well since 2018 year to date so the second time I took a look at micron was in my is it too late to buy micron video right here around $55 I believe back in March so since then we have come weighed pretty up way down and back up again huge so by popular demand we are covering a micron for the third time now so a lot of the fundamental things are going to remain the same I am going to comment on a bit of more the technical setups that I see and any news events that has generated about micron in the last month's already so let's start off by taking a look at the chart here we can see that recently we rejected off the top of this 64 $70 mark and we could be in this downward trend now this is just the beginning you know so it could be broken out or up or down pretty easily there seems to be an decent support here at 5670 so that's the thing to watch out for as well if we come back down and bounce off that could conform it a little confirm it a little bit more there is a bit of a bearish divergence on the RSI but that is just a weak bearish signal so the two key levels of support I'm looking at right now are at 56 70 this line right here which we tested on June 1st and if this does not hold than $53 and this is a level that I'm hoping we come down to actually this level would also coincide with this larger or Uptrend that we've been in we can see this right here and we tested it once in February we test it again in April and it'd be nice if we could test it again here one thing that can very well just completely throw off this technical analysis though is the earnings that are coming up very very soon and micron has consistently beaten earnings and they have consistently fell from earnings - we can see right here great earnings beat drop down though right here as well a good earnings but also fell from 46 to 40 so micron tends to fall after even great earnings personally though I'm not too sure on this one I think there's definitely a chance that we break out to be honest in the last two months especially ever since this area right here ever since this huge boom people started taking notice and analysts have gone from more hitted ly bullish to now very openly bullish and my corona has become even more of a popular stock in the last couple months so I think it's very possible that this actually sends it upward for once I think they're gonna release a great earnings statement possibly not as good as um as the one back in March though so do watch out for that so on to their financial numbers and this is one of the reasons why micron was such a meme stock because down here and we can see that it was trading at the lower levels here in the $40 ranges for quite some time and when it fell back down to $45 right here we were seeing Mike on trade with a Ford p/e of $4 which is absolutely insane value in today's market for such a big company in such an important tech sector which is memory and RAM and the reason why everyone was so scared over here why everyone was still scared and why people are still scared right now to be honest is because of the cycle that memory has tended to go through in the past so let me just zoom out to a one-week graph here you can see a big run up here followed by a big downtrend here and now we are being a big run up here again and people just think that we're just gonna come back down because memory and RAM is a cyclical industry and I think that I think that these fears are misguided I think that without a doubt Tech is continuing to drive the market forward and I think that memory is going to continue to increase in its ubiquity in our everyday lives you see in progress are these smart cars these smart homes all this internet of technology all this smart a fogging of everything and that coupled with how file sizes are ever-increasing and just more usage of this technology and Internet we will see a constant need for this memory and this DRAM furthermore with its partnership with Intel into 3d I definitely see micron as one of the main players for RAM and memory going back to all the rest of their numbers here they're just great you can see that price to sales price to book price to cash are all reasonable their price to earnings growth is at point two which is phenomenal growth potential and in this couple of their quarterly year over year sales and EPS growth you can see that just micron puts out monster numbers in my previous video I stated that my end of year target for micron was $80 and I am still remaining on that statement I think that everything that my Karen has going for them right now the more bullish sentiment from the general market and it's every strong fundamentals will help it get there so one last thing about micron is that they did announce a share buyback which will start to take place in September I believe and I think this is definitely a big positive for the stock everyone says everyone always says that things are priced in and I think this is mostly true for the share buyback although I think that the buyback itself will definitely give us a little bit of upside to be honest furthermore bullishness in a company's own stock leading to its buybacks yes this money could be used in reinvestment towards further growth but I think micron right now is sitting on a good amount of cash and by leveraging this into share buybacks if we see any big price surges up that never come back down which i think is very possible given its great financial numbers I believe that the share buyback is a very smart thing to do actually so to sum everything up in this micron update video as of now we are in a downtrend on this more short to mid-range timeframe on the four-hour chart we are in this downtrend right here this can be broken either down or up very strong with the earnings coming up these are the three scenarios that I listed we can break up right here yes we can go sideways as always or we can go down and this all sounds very obvious but I do want to give you all some more price levels to watch out for mainly this 56 60 50 60 $70 mark right here as well as this 53 dollar mark right here and as for resistance do watch out for $64 as a resistance as always in the short-term it's so hard to to see where price is going to go but long-term Micon still remains in my opinion a great stock to hold combining its industry that it's in as well as it's terrific financial numbers right now if you buy this stock and if you hold it for a while I am confident that you should see some returns so that is gonna do it for me everyone thank you so much for watching this video if you enjoyed please be sure to leave a like leave a comment if you have any questions as always and be sure to subscribe to be able to see more videos just like this one i'm andrew young thank you so much for watching and I'll see you all in the next video
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