저자: AndrewYoung · 외국인
요약 보기
마이크론이 펀더멘털 대비 저평가 상태이며 기술적으로는 상승 추세가 유지된다는 판단이다. 밸류에이션: PER 5.35, 선행 PER 4.5, PEG 0.14로 매우 저렴하고 목표주가 80.76, 대부분 애널리스트가 매수 의견이라고 언급. 차트: 2017년 8월 이후 상승 채널이 유지되며 하단을 세 번째 터치했고, 채널 하단을 일시 이탈했지만 종가는 채널 위에서 마감해 단기 베어 트랩으로 봄. 기술적 패턴: 저점이 계속 높아지는 상승 삼각형 형태이며 $64 부근에 큰 저항이 있으나 상승 흐름이 이어질 신호로 해석. RSI: 2016년 1월 이후 30 아래로 내려간 적이 없고, 40 부근에서 반등하는 패턴이 반복되어 현재도 40 부근에서 바닥을 다지는 중이라고 봄. 뉴스 리스크: 중국의 마이크론 사용 금지 뉴스로 큰 음봉이 나왔으나, 마이크론 측은 매출 영향이 약 1%라고 밝혀 영향이 제한적일 것으로 판단. 다만 무역전쟁 우려는 지속되는 리스크로 언급. 거래량: 과거 실적 발표 시기에 큰 음봉 거래량이 나온 뒤 상승 또는 횡보가 나타났던 사례를 들어 실적 전후 횡보 가능성 언급. 출연자 포지션: 약 $50에 진입, $58에 추가 매수해 현재 손실 상태이며 추가 매수 계획. 결론은 단기적으로 강세 유지.
다듬은 글
and what is up everyone Andrew here and in today's video I just want to take a quick revisit at micron and what's happened in the last couple of weeks and days and also just how I see things going out from here so just real quick let's take a look again at their fundamentals and micron is known to have absolutely great fundamentals we can see a p/e ratio of five point three five and afford p/e of four point five which is so so cheap and especially this price to earnings growth of 0.14 that is as cheap as they come and we can see that with a target price of 80 point seven six and all these ratings out here most the analysts are pretty bullish as well so taking a look at the 1-day chart here we can see that micron has been in this upward channel since August of 2017 and we've touched the bottom 1/2 and now a third time we can see that this time though is a little bit different as we sort of punctured through the bottom of the upward Channel however we did close above it which is something that's positive so we could say that this was a bit of a bear trap for a very short-term bear trap I guess if you're looking on the UH let's say the half hour scale you can see that that's a bit of a bear trap right there or even the 5 minute scale but a few things that I want to look out here technically we can see that way back I think of maybe a month or a month and a half ago I made a video about micron and here are some of the examples I had drawn out yes and this was my number one example right here and it does seem like we're going this way however I definitely definitely a few positive things here actually on the technicals we can see that this is a bit of a rising triangle you see higher low higher low higher low and there is a big resistance here at around $64 but we are ascending right here and this is usually a bullish signal and we can go higher from there lastly we're still in this upward trend you know so always trade off the trend that is one of the big things to look out for and just a few things that aren't necessarily bread-and-butter patterns but little things I did notice that I wanted take note of here we can see that ever since 2017 right here in July so exactly a month ago I mean a year ago actually we hit this $36 I mean we hit this 36 mark on the RSI and even before that if you look we haven't gone below 30 on the RSI ever since January of 2016 and micron has been on an absolute tear up on the daily chart here we can see that every time we hit around this 40 mark we seem to bounce up so here is the 30s and here is a 40 and it did take another bottom here before we bounce off but that was another again a 40 bounce up to higher highs right here again 41 on the RSI and we bounced off again and right here again we're touching it it's always on the bottom of this upward Channel and we are on the 40 of the RSI again and it does seem like we can balance off so obviously the stock market is very news driven and this one huge bearish engulfing candle right here was caused by the news that China is banning micron although today micron Sanjay from Nikon came out and said that the ban would only account for about 1% of their revenue or something like that so I don't I don't really see a reason why sanjay would intentionally mislead us so I I'm inclined to believe that it won't be a big deal this this banham micron temporarily but with the trade war still looming there is still ways for news to break micron out of this pattern but for the most part in terms of a technical setup I would say this is actually a pretty bullish technical setup and I've had micron since around I'm in on micron since around the $50 mark I bought more at around 58 so I am down that position but I am planning upon loading up even more so last thing I want to take a note at is we can see on the volume candles every time we encounter some a block of red candles we can see right here about a year ago there's a block of red candles and it led to higher highs eventually we went up from that and here is our next block of red candles and it always happens to coincide with earnings usually we can see that right here big block of red and round earnings and we did go higher after that but we did go sideways for a while so that's always a possibility oops I don't know where this trend line is okay and we can see right here again big block of red went down a bit more and then came back up and in here we can see a block of red goes down a bit more and it does seem like we are gonna go back up so overall I just wanted to revisit micron real quick since I know that this is a very popular stock a lot of people love this stock and I also love this Alcala because you're not gonna find fundamentals better than this stock has on such a such a hot sector so definitely deserves its popularity I would say and I just wanted to point out a few things on the technical charts and to say that for now yes we should remain bullish so yeah I want to thank you all so much for watching this video and I will see you all next time thanks for watching
Comments 0