저자: BillMiller · 외국인
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아마존·넷플릭스 등 미디어 경쟁 구도와 Bill Miller의 종목 의견을 다룬 2018년 인터뷰. 아마존은 자체 제작 스튜디오와 프라임 비디오로 콘텐츠를 키우고 있으며, 프라임 가격 인상은 이를 뒷받침하는 전략이라는 평가. 넷플릭스는 좋은 사업이지만 주가가 매우 비싸다고 언급. 과거 300달러대에서 팔아 수익을 냈으나 당시 매도는 아쉬웠다고 회고. 신규 경쟁자들의 공격적 투자로 비용 부담이 커질 것으로 봄. 애플의 미디어 확장 및 디즈니 인수 가능성에 대해서는 디즈니가 워런 버핏에게 좋은 인수 대상이 될 수 있다는 개인 의견을 제시. 디즈니 PER은 약 14배로 비싸지 않다고 평가. 출연자 Quatro는 Tupperware(배당수익률 약 6%)를 언급. 무역전쟁 우려, 신흥국 약세, 강달러로 6년 저점에 있으나 현금흐름이 지속 가능하고 ROE가 높아 매력적이라고 봄. 미 국채·환율 등 거시 예측은 명시되지 않음.
다듬은 글
this Father's Day being this Sunday we wanted to bring you a father-son dynamic honor of the occasion and who better than Miller value partners bill Miller the 3rd and Bill Miller the fourth which I have to always remember it's not senior and junior it's yeah so who is the original I mean we're going way back well the more the more interesting question is when his younger brother was born I want to make him the fifth but my wife wouldn't let me do that I was a George Foreman kind of thing you know anyway guys welcome and we love talking to you again and there's a long list of stocks to discuss so let me just plunge right into it so bill let's start with Amazon just because that's been such a winner for you over time we've every other segment we're talking about how big can these companies get are they going to hit a trillion dollars should they buy media assets and what would you like to see would it would it be bad for you if Amazon started to buy a lot more media assets I don't think Amazon's gonna buy anything in this since a media space because they already got their own production studio and one of the things that that they saw early on that Netflix saw was that the media business was fragmented between content and distribution and with the internet you can put those two things together so you can greenlight a project make it and distribute it globally which again can't be done in a traditional media that's why AT&T bought Time Warner right and ironically now that the the kind of the regulatory environment is okay with that tie it because Netflix and others have been so they've done it already you know if you said no to this you probably have to go back and say well somehow they don't work either so you think Amazon can build this itself in-house oh yeah they're already doing it I mean that's part of the reason that they just raised prime by 20 bucks it's because so many of the people are signing onto prime video and the way Jeff thinks about prime is let's let's give people a lot more benefits and then after we give them that a few years later we'll raise the price and do they have to make it as successful as Netflix and this new Disney or whatever we know what a combined Comcast box looks like I think they're basically following the Netflix model and that they're gonna be making more and more original programming movies and shows each year part of the idea here is that what Jeff wants this to become is to get so much content that that part of the business effectively has fixed costs so that then the next day the next project or something that comes along is all pure profit so his Netflix a bad investment right now then with all of these other players aggressively coming on the scene you know we bought Netflix on the old stock at AIT's older than the 30s and I went to 300 then it went back to 55 we bought it there and we made 12 times our money and I think 18 months and sold it and shouldn't have done that because it's doubled this year but it's very expensive it's very good but it's very expensive and so they're just gonna have to contend with you know the fact that other people are coming and willing to spend maybe I don't know if it's gonna be eight billion dollars a year but it's gonna be billions because these new competitors what about Apple today they're tying up with Oprah now so they're they did a cartoon deal yesterday they've got Oprah today should they just step in and buy somebody like Disney and just say you know what because it doesn't sound like they're able to build you know to scale the way the Amazon is in-house that wouldn't be a bad deal in my opinion I always thought that you know Warren Buffett says he can't find something to buy and I think Disney if you'd lever up a little bit would be a great thing for him to buy because he given spin off those theme parks into and into an MLP the way MGM did with MGM properties and recoup a large portion of the price have you mentioned that to mr.
Buffett no it would be it would be a diversifier for sure yeah and it could be built on then this is is that an option for Disney if they don't win Fox assets I don't know I mean I don't that Disney doesn't want to sell I'm sure but it's around 14 times earnings so it's not very expensive all right Quatro last time we talked to you he had a couple of names like RH that were out of favor but have done pretty well what's in the portfolio now actually one of the names in art I run an income fund with rank so one of the names kicking off a high level of income we like right now is Tupperware actually a name a lot of your viewers may be very familiar with it trades with a 6% dividend yield right now believe it or not which sets hi but is actually incredibly sustainable if you look at the cash flows they're kicking off is this a demographic place is the Millennials now finally because the Tupperware sounds to me like an old story of mature you know but is it right maybe that's the attract well you think about it it should be theoretically a very stable steady grower over time grow roughly a global GDP but right now the stock is actually trading at a six-year low people have sold the stock because of trade war fears they've sold tupperware over trade wars yeah potentially also weak emerging markets strong dollar bad for Tupperware so if you just look at the valuation very high dividend yield very sustainable very attractive business high returns on equity over time so we like that a lot
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