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결론: 영상 전반은 CMG(치폴레)·ULTA·NVDA·TSLA·GILD·IBB·MCD 등 고성장 종목들이 주간·월간 차트상 약세 신호를 보이며 하락 위험이 크다는 기술적 분석이다. [시장 전반] 스파이(SPY)와 IWM이 하락 전환 가능성이 있으며, 시장이 하락하면 고flyer 종목들이 함께 무너질 수 있다고 봄. 다만 시장이 반등하면 일부 종목이 추가 상승할 수 있다는 조건부 시나리오도 제시. [치폴레 CMG] 일봉에서 갭 상승 후 추세선 위 안착 여부가 관건. 주간 종가가 추세선 위에서 마감하는지 확인 필요하며, 다음 날 아래로 마감하면 여전히 약세로 본다. 월간 차트는 3주 뒤 종가로 재평가 예정. 하락 시 228 → 갭 메움 213 → 200일선(약 203) 목표 언급. [얼타 ULTA] 일봉 약세 인사이드바 형성, 갭 구간 213 및 200일선 방향 하락 시나리오. 주간 기준 지지는 228~241 및 213~220 구간이며, 이 지지가 무너지면 200일선(약 203) 방어 여부를 주시. 월간은 고점 반전 봉 이후 추가 확인 필요. 전망: 단기 약세, 반등 시 숏 재진입 고려. [엔비디아 NVDA] 일봉은 20일선 위에서 흔들림. 1차 지지 6069, 2차 5974, 50일선 약 5702. 상승 전환하려면 6350 구간을 종가 기준으로 돌파하고 거래량 동반이 필요하다고 봄. 주간 상승 패턴이 실패하면 약 51달러(약 51 부근) 재하락 가능. 전망: 단기 하락 쪽에 무게. [테슬라 TSLA] 이중바닥 지지 187~188 이탈 시 181, 166, 155 목표. 아래 주간 추세선은 151~152 부근. 상승 시 220~225 구간 재숏 전략. 월간 차트는 618 아래에 있으며 추가 확인 필요. 전망: 하락 쪽 중심, 뉴스 의존 변동성 주의. [길리어드 GILD] 주간 인사이드바 상태, 50일선 회복 여부가 핵심. 20일선 위 종가 및 382 되돌림 돌파 시 상승 가능성, 못 하면 추가 하락. 현재는 약세 입장 유지 진행 중. [IBB 바이오] 3일 연속 반등했으나 20일선 부근 재진입. 종가 확인 필요. 상단 저항 291~294 구간에서 재숏 고려, 아래로 떨어지면 이중바닥과 갭 메움 확인 후 추가 하락 시나리오. [맥도날드 MCD] 일봉에서 20일선 아래로 내려왔고 갭 메움 가능성 언급, 시장 하락 시 함께 하락 예상. 주간 목표 11254 및 110, 100달러 가능성. 월간은 8개월 상승 후 고점 반전 봉, 10877 및 50/20일선 목표. 포지션은 절반 보유 중이며 이익 일부 실현했다고 언급, 100달러까지 하락 기대. [출연자 전망] 전반적으로 단기~중기 약세 관점. 개별 종목 중 치폴레·얼타·NVDA·TSLA·MCD는 하락 전망, 길리어드·IBB는 방향 불확실하지만 약세 쪽 기울기. 시장 전체 리스크 관리 중요성 강조.
다듬은 글
hipotle U tocom So Yesterday Amman takes a 99.9% Precision in Chipotle we get a gap up above the uh trend line here and the trend line just goes back right here we're keeping that in there just to see we had a nice retrace came back into this moving averages and then Pop Goes the Weasel we I think we almost filled the Gap here but if we didn't we still have a gap fill here in the high pivot around 443 73 if you are bullish you want to see some consolidation and then you can possibly continue up if you're bearish you want to see this thing come down get below this trend line and start moving to the moving averages and then slowly just break down right now we're waiting for pattern to see where this thing's going to move to Wild Card spy iwm Q start to dump everything's going down regardless we're in the time frame that can happen so you got to keep that in the back of your mind people and this move up here on Bill I think the sharks are going to come out and try to take this guy out since they know he has another large position in a stock like this that's all news driven weekly chart weekly we're right back into these trend lines over here this is just connecting these lows these lows that low they got below it popped above got below it now we're Above This is a weekly close so let's see if they can close it above it if it pulls back tomorrow and closes below I'm still bearish on Chipotle monthly chart this is why down pops up down sideways they're trying to recapture that trend line there and this would be the uh 382 retrace coming back up like this is a monthly close so we still have three weeks before it closes so we have to re-evaluate this chart in the coming uh weeks let's look at Ulta this one keeps moving down and on the daily chart we have a bearish inside bar this is ugly with these curling down into price eventually if this continues to consolidate sideways or maybe it pops up and go sideways these will curl down into price and that will send this one lower if you are bullish on this one you want to see this pop up retrace get above the moving averages and get continue up but you're still going to have Massive Resistance up in this area this area you got a big breakdown bar you had everybody buying the dip coming down in here thinking oh this thing had good earnings it's going to pop up and then they just slammed them so you have a lot of bag holders up here thinking that it was going to go up instead it went straight down so that's what's going to happen here so coming up we'll have some resistance I would possibly short this thing again up here and write it down but right now we have a great bearish pattern and it's already starting to break down if the market start to go we're going to 228 then we're going to fill the Gap around 213 and ultimately we go to the 200 moving average which H we touched it in March so that's a good possibility let's look at the the weekly now the weekly kind of the same thing we had some we had a nice big red bar nice follow through and now we're coming into a um 20 ma which can possibly hold this thing up a little bit right around 24150 we haven't hit it yet but there's a good possibility we will I still like the Gap window right around the 22879 it's also a 382 on the weekly chart so you have great support at that window if that does not hold up we're like I said on the daily we're going right back to the 21365 and then ultimately which is actually like the 5 retrace which is a pretty nice area as well but then ultimately if this thing really starts to rumble we're going to go to the 200 area or the 50 ma right around 203 so watch that area for a quick bounce if the markets still continue to sell look out because this one will go lower and then ultimately on the monthly we had a nice reversal bar at the from the top and now we're starting to reverse a little bit more with some follow through monthly charts we have a couple weeks we'll re-evaluate this one on the monthly yet the end of the month let's go to Nvidia another high flyer just like Ulta this one's even worse daily daily just chopping around above the Mas just like the spider holding it up holding it up we did get below it someone popped it up kept it above it saved it let's see if we sell off tomorrow we do have a micro bullish pattern with a macro bullish pattern so this one needs to start moving up if not it will take the path of least resistance first spot is 6069 next spot is 5974 then I think we're heading to the uh 50 ma right around 5702 if you're bullish you want to get above the 6350 area and continue up with more cons uh conviction volume you can't just float up unless the Market's float up this has a good possibility of floating up if the market sell all these are coming down this is another high flyer just like Charter just like Ulta just like uh uh what was it Dollar General and there's a bunch of other ones out there starting to fall like rocks on the weekly Nvidia nice bullish pattern we have a little bit of tails on here a couple dois so right this point A lot of times these great bullish patterns they will fail and if this one fails we're heading down to 51 bucks again if you're bullish you need to get above the 6350 area on a closing basis and the following week I want to see some uh conviction volume and this thing pushing this up and uh this little volume here I just don't see it happen happening and we're right in that time frame where everything's about to implode and we get a nice pullback in the markets in my opinion of course monthly just stretched when you get this far away from the 20 ma it has to come back this is a monthly chart it will take a little time but eventually it will ster step ster step ster step and then just start falling next thing you know this is curling up next thing you know it's a $45 stock then I'd possibly be a buyer that is a nice retrace area right in there but 50 50 actually 53 or 5573 50 bucks and 44 if this thing comes falling down let's get right into Tesla everyone's favorite stock elen what a genius he gets everyone to give him all this money and now he's going to a bank trying to get a $300 million loan he blows up a rocket he tells everyone it's okay this guy's genius and everyone's still like oh my gosh he's the best thing ever I agree with him he's building electric cars great for the environment but there's more electric cars that are coming out Mercedes Beamers uh the volts and and and the leaf and all this other stuff so how good of a company it is I don't know we'll find out in the future but it to me it feels like a scam but anyways uh Tesla so we went up retraced came right back in the double bottom if double bottom gives out we're going to 18787 if you're bullish you need to re you need to come in fill this Gap get above this area and even if we get up if we happen to get back up to the 220 225 area it's a full-on short again unless the markets are catching a bid then this one could possibly move up again a news driven stock ugly ugly sell off it is due for a bounce but this could have been it back to the retrace and then boom we're going straight back down so if if you're TR trying to trade this thing or buying the dips wait for 18787 that that then maybe get interested because if the market start dumping we're going to 181 166 155 ultimately on the weekly you can see a little bit better you have a gap window down here or Gap fill you have this big trend line coming here connecting those lows and that is right around 151 152 but we first have to see how it reacts around the 188 187 area and then we'll go from there but this big outside bar here if we get a little bit of follow through tomorrow if we close below this low tomorrow it's it could possibly be on and if the markets start giving up the gains oh my gosh this one is going to go down fast and furious the monthly monthly still we're out of this little pennet we're below the 618 and on the monthly chart we still have a couple weeks to wait but getting ugly guys I don't like Tesla we were short we already covered but man if it if it retraces back into this area up in here I'll be short again and if we you know if we get above in this area I I'll start adding here add the last half there maybe use the 240 pivot as a stop out something like that money management is critical with stocks like this because it is a news driven Pig Gilead Gilead caught a bid today IBB caught a bid today so what else can you say you're still in a weak stance below the moving averages you're in this inside bar they tried to push it up into the 50 uh uh percent retrace we're into the 20 ma coming up but we made it we did close above the 382 so it is a little bit strong but technically it's still in a weak position weekly great inside bar I would have liked to seen a couple more uh days of or actually weeks of consolidation then the move but with this 20 ma curling in the price this possibly moves up this should send this thing down if you're bullish you're looking for to recapture the 20 ma get above the 382 and then try to recapture the 50 if you can't do that or get above this far here then this thing's going to be in trouble but right now it's a weak stance starting to break down we did get a nice little bid let's see where it goes tomorrow it will be a weekly close and then we'll re-evaluate this thing monthly chart monthly not good inside bar broke down closed below this now we're below the 50 Ma they're trying to recapture we will know more in a couple weeks and we we will reval ah gosh it's been a long day we will look at this chart again in a month and re-evaluate this thing and see where this thing could possibly go that is Gilead let's go to the IBB the IBB actually caught a nice little bit today out of the blue boom shaka so we had one two three days up we were actually a $193 point6 7% not the greatest but you know what you'd expect something we came down bounced around chopped not the best bearish pattern kind of sloppy just kind of slipping came into the 50 ma into this support area boom they bounced it up three days in a row but we're back into the 50 uh or into the 20 ma let's see where we close tomorrow or did they just pull it back and start to fall again if you're uh bullish on this one you need it to close above the 20 and confirm now we need a confirmation but then I think we're retracing maybe 291 and then ultimately 294 then I'd short short this thing again if you're not short if you're bearish you're looking for this thing to reverse tomorrow get below these Mas eventually and then hit this uh double bottom then fill the Gap and then we'll go from there weekly chart weekly chart was looking ugly for a little bit we're going to see this will be an interesting close tomorrow but we trying to recapture this 50 ma they brought it below it it looked pretty ugly Light volumes kicking in I mean look at this we're even lighter than last week so that's the reason why this thing is pushing up a no volum it's easy it's easy to float stuff up when there's no sellers that we get a bit on the markets everything starts to go up you get an overall try to do a little short squeeze but again weekly close we're looking for a close above the 50 ma then you're bullish if you start moving down again you're looking for a close below the 20 ma then we're going to start just St stepping down monthly monthly ugly inside bar bearish pattern if this pattern plays out we are definitely going to the 207 205 area if this pattern needs to break we need to get above the 20 ma then the big inside bar around 327 330 then maybe if we get above that I think that will be a miracle but if it does then we're probably heading back to maybe 350 maybe this High pivot but you know one step at a time we'll have to stick a retrace from here to here this is a monthly chart so we have a couple more weeks for this one to close to re-evaluate let's get into McDonald's that will be the last one of the day and I am going to be done daily chart and this this was this was classic you know I'm short this one we cover covered it we we've done it over and over and over and over you know we took it here shorted covered took it there this one bearish pattern came in now we had a nice bearish pattern but then they popped it up three I don't even know maybe they had garlic fries or testing or maybe the breakfast sandwiches or something but look at that they came in did a massive short squeeze got all the week shorts out sent it down two days down we get below the 20ma we fill this Gap I think we're heading I think we're heading south from here the markets start to sell CU everything a market trade the market start to sell everything's going down I don't give a crap what it is but here we go we're below the ma 20 ma so let's see it's in a weak stance let's see if we can close below this and get a little foul through and possibly get a little more volume in there too weekly great inside bar three days up again they pushed it up into the 50 couldn't get above there everyone who was buyers here they got slapped came right back up so those buyers become sellers next thing you know they're trying to squeeze just to sell come in boom right back down but we're going to see where this thing closes tomorrow if this closes down in here on a weekly basis it could be get setting up to make the next move down next move down would be 11254 then ultimately these pivots around 110 and then I'm still thinking 100 bucks monthly chart monthly chart again this one was stretched too one two three four five six seven eight months up got the nice this was a nice engulfing reversal off the top comes back in they try to push it up up get all the shorts out comes right back in now we're just kind of hanging out here this is a monthly I'm expecting at least 10877 to the 50 or the 20 ma ultimately if this thing starts to dump you got the 50 ma right around 101 if you are bullish this one you need to get above this pivot here which is around 128 129 and then you got to get above the high and confirm till that day I think we're still coming back to this 20 ma area and if we set up on a uh bearish pattern we're definitely going down to the $100 Mark I've been saying that I've been saying that since it's been up here it's been a long long time couple months five six months but here we come that's not a bad trade 131 and it goes to uh 100 that's a 30% move I'll take that all day long so so anyways we we have a half position it is coming in we already took off half took some profits so regardless don't really care but we're hoping it goes down all right guys thanks for watching my videos hopefully you're learning something I love this stuff been doing it for years again johnis stock bookie.com thanks again God bless see you on the charts
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