저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 영상 전반은 CMG·ULTA·NVDA·TSLA·GILD·IBB·MCD 등 개별 종목의 차트를 훑으며 단기·중기 하락 쪽에 무게를 둔 기술적 분석이다. [CMG(차포틀레)] - 일봉상 443~445 부근 저항이 강하며, 이 구간을 회복해 위로 올라서야 상승이 이어진다고 봄. - 440 부근에서 단기 숏을 잡아 436에서 청산하는 등 데이트레이딩으로 수익을 냈다고 언급. - 상방 저항: 450 부근, 200일선, 461 부근 피벗, 주봉 기준 445 부근(0.382 되돌림), 463(0.5), 482(0.618). - 뉴스에 따라 움직이는 종목이라 예측이 어렵지만, 상승 시 거래량을 동반해야 한다고 강조. - 월봉에서는 추세선 저항 아래에 있으며 443~445 회복이 관건. [ULTA] - 5일 횡보 후 하락 반전 패턴(약세 패턴)으로 보고, 금요일·월요일 이탈 시 하락 가능성을 경고. - 하락 시 228(창) 부근, 2133 갭 메우기 가능성 언급. - 주봉은 큰 음봉 이후 약세 반전 캔들이 나왔고, 20주선 이탈 시 228 구간까지 열려 있다고 봄. [NVDA] - 월봉상 과열(20개월선 대비 과도하게 이격)로 언젠가 조정이 온다고 봄. 다만 시기는 오래 걸릴 수 있음. - 6237 수준 레벨을 오래 보유해 왔다고 언급하며 장기 강세 추세를 인정하는 발언도 있음. - 'Fang' 편입 유지 맥락에서 넷플릭스 대신 엔비디아를 언급. [TSLA] - 일봉상 약세 패턴(하락 쐐기 성격)으로 보고, 주요 이평선 이탈 확인 시 하락을 전망. - 주봉에서 추세선 아래로 떨어진 음봉으로 188 재방문 가능성, 시장 전반이 밀리면 150 부근 갭 메우기 가능성. - 월봉은 추세 지지 여부 확인이 필요하다고 함. [GILD] - 50일선 지지 시도 중. 상승 시 갭 메우기 후 200일선 부근까지 가능하다고 봄. 롱이라면 이익 실현 후 숏 전환 고려. - 하락 확인 시 저점 아래 76~67 부근, 궁극적으로 63 부근까지 열려 있다고 봄. - 주봉 20주선이 하락 전환 중이라 부정적. 월봉도 50개월선 회복이 필요. [IBB(바이오 ETF)] - 50일선을 지지하며 반등했으나 거래량 없는 반등으로 판단. 20일선 회복 실패 시 하락 전망. - 20일선 회복·확인 시 0.618, 0.75 되돌림 구간(294 등)까지 상승 여지. 저항 300 부근에서 다시 숏 고려. - 일봉 하단 더블바텀(278) 가능성, 갭 27656 메우기 및 265~267 피벗 가능성. - 주봉은 약세 패턴 우려, 월봉 종가가 주요 지지 이하면 250~253 구간까지 열린다고 봄. [MCD] - 인사이드바 구간에서 상승 시도 후 매도 세력에 밀려 재하락, 약세 패턴 우려. - 20일선 재이탈 시 갭 메우기 및 하락 가능성. 회복하려면 50일선과 0.618 구간, 200일선 돌파가 필요. - 월봉도 홈베이스(20개월선) 재진입 중이라 약세 신호. [시장 전반 리스크] - SPY, IWM, QQQ 등 지수가 밀리면 개별 종목 대부분이 함께 하락할 것이라고 반복 강조. - 어떤 종목이든 지수 하락 시 같이 떨어질 수 있으니 주의 필요. [출연자 전망 요약] - 전반적으로 단기·중기 약세, 특히 ULTA·TSLA·MCD·IBB에 하방 시나리오를 제시. - NVDA는 중장기 과열 우려는 있으나 추세 자체는 인정하는 입장. - 여러 종목에서 '확인 후 대응(이평선·지지선 이탈/회복)'을 조건부로 강조.
다듬은 글
Ulta Nvidia Tesla Gilead IBB and MCD we looked at these yesterday let's go over them again so we talked about CMG that we had big resistance around the 443 73 then we had a gap fill right here around the 44170 or so right right in there I don't know the exact Gap fill I could find it but I'm a little bit too lazy anyways the 443 area is a good area the high of the day was 44120 we did take this short after hours yesterday we covered at around 432 we took a short again from 440 covered at 436 two nice day trades for some pretty good cash on these we we don't load the boat on this one but we take enough so if you get a couple bucks out of this thing you make some decent money so daily we're coming into some resistance up in here it needs to recapture this High the 443 73 to continue up and then you have big big resistance around the 200 moving average and these high pivots around 461 or so let's get into the weekly chart weekly chart as well if you take the low pivot and the high pivot you're going to have big resistance at a 382 at 445 as well so there is a ton of resistance coming up as well as the Gap fill you also have a breakdown area too so whoever bought up in here on this up move they got left holding the bag they put it in their face came back up and now the bag holders if it were me I'd become a seller and just take the profit a break even and thank you very much so this needs to start moving up on volume as well if it does get above the 445 area 450 area is going to be good resistance then ultimately you have the 750 or the uh 50 retrace at 463 and then the 618 right here at 482 then you have a 50 ma curling down as well unfortunately this thing's moving on news now so anything can happen but let me tell you a lot of people don't like old Billy boy so I would not doubt if this thing turns around on Resistance istance up in here and just starts dumping and that's just because and it it it will be funny just like the vrx they'll come in and they'll just send it down send it down send it down till he can't take it anymore he'll add more then they'll send it down in his face a little bit more but you know what Billy's just a little bit um out of control shares his positions like he's the big man on the hill and eventually they're going to take his ass out monthly chart monthly chart we're back in the resistance we have a trend line coming from these this pivot and another pivot down in here so so a lot of resistance up here this thing needs to get some momentum going and get get back up above that 443 445 area and then possibly it might go up the next couple days is going to be very very pivotal on this stock again it needs to keep going but remember this trend line that I had in here if it does not get above that trend line or or confirm above this area or get above uh 450 or 44 373 then man you know it's it's going to have some problems s up here and then you have the 200 moving average which it hasn't hit wow whoa look at this look at that they got it they got it below to get it going wow hasn't hit the 200 moving average in a long long time so that's going to be a Wall of Resistance so either way it is moving up on the news you got to take it for what it is and and play it and see what happens but ultimately for 4373 you're looking to recapture and get above but then you're starting to get into the 460 area of resistance all right let's look at Ulta Ulta actually a bid which was pretty nice wow look at that so if you if you're long Ulta you better be careful on this one we talked about a possible retrace in this area this area and possibly shorten it again but this is setting up in a bearish pattern we have five days of consolidation and two days left on the week if we get on Friday and we get this nice consolidation Friday or Monday this thing could possibly start selling off you have to be careful and if it does it's going to 228 the the the window then we're we're going to fill the gap down here at 2133 so if you're trying to buy this thing on the dips be very careful you did recapture the 618 yesterday and it closed below it we're down almost three bucks today it's just not healthy this was let's go let's go to the weekly real quick this was a high flyer we are still above the 250 retrace but man barely this is a weekly close C we're going to see if we could close above this if this thing starts to dump out on the weekly and closes below the 20 we are definitely going to the 228 area and going to and going to get to that window and that's also the 382 as well we'll see how it reacts when it hits that but even on the weekly that's ugly have follow through from last week from this big red outside candle and man if this thing follows through one more time and we could get the three bar surge into that area that would be a good for a quick bounce but but again the high flyer look at this when it gets this far extended from the 20 it's going to come back in so far so good this nice engulfing uh uh reversal candle here almost took out the whole uh top here on this one but uh that's telling me lower prices so just be careful with Ulta it is a high flyer and it's ready to come in here's another high flyer this one too this one's just flat out ridiculous that's a monthly chart way too extended the 34 bucks the 20 ma this this one will come down it's just going to take a little bit of time but this one was nice we had a 93 uh Cent sell off today they're still holding the 20 ma because that that's all they got to do just keep it above the ma and everyone thinks it's bullish the weak ta guys as long as it's above the Mas it's great well yes and no you know we did have a bullish pattern here they tried to pop it up and never recaptured the high came back in we have a micro uh bullish pattern now but we fell right on top of the 20 ma so that that's um that's suspect to me and if we the markets to break down sorry about that I I got allergies are killing me it's raining here in Arizona and I'm dying over here so anyways if this thing closes below the 20 ma you better look out we're going to go right to 6069 then we're coming in to fill this Gap around 5974 then I think we can go right to this 20 ma around 5674 we're going to see how it comes in from there and sets up if it sets up like altta in that nice bearish pattern expect lower prices if you are a bull it needs to stay above this but let me tell you on the weekly the Weekly's even stretched now you're getting some pretty good consolidation in a bullish manner but at the highs these patterns have a tendency to fail and if it does 50 bucks man here it comes and it will come straight down close below that and we'll start you know heading south it cannot stay that long for that much time I mean especially this eight months up and my level 6237 that's what we're holding pretty pretty amazing I had that level for a long time you know you gota you got to play these even numbers 50 you got to add you got to add this one uh just kept going and going and going you know at one point like I said we're going to replace Netflix with Nvidia cuz Netflix we don't like anymore you know it's we got to keep the Fang going but but yeah this is just a stretch chart it will come in it's a monthly chart so monthly charts usually take a little longer to play out look at Tesla everyone's favorite stock so on The Daily talked about this uh been talking in my videos we've been talking about this bearish pattern bearish pattern if we get below these mas and confirm we're going down we did hit this pivot let's check this out though we did hit that pivot I mean they had news granted that you know just like chipot going up but we did hit that and bounce I was exp I was hoping for a bounce up and then Resort it and coming into here but man it came right back in look what it did though oops filled the Gap bounced up came back into the uh 382 re trce and then boom we're going right back down we're right on top of this Gap again at 2077 actually we Clos a little bit below it we'll see how it reacts tomorrow if the markets start to sell all these stocks I'm talking about today they're all going lower don't care what they are what name they are the Spy the iwm the Q start dumping out these will go lower weekly chart weekly chart man good sell bar right here we below this trend line unless we recapture this trend line and start moving up this is this this is ugly this is a nice breakdown here I think we're going right back to 188 and if the market starts selling we're going right back and we're going to fill this Gap right around that 150 level you know this thing's going to fall like a rock just like the rest of them monthly chart we did have a piie or a pennant we are staying in between it I didn't count this cuz that was a nice crash you know to to come in like that I mean I guess you could but we actually actually you could do this if you want a little bit of support down here as well you can you can connect that pivot it's just such a long tail you know I like this it starts breaking down we're holding the 618 but we'll go right to the 179 180 and then possibly down in here around the 150 150 this area might not be bad we'll see how the spy and everything else react and if that's still dumping then uh you got to be careful with these guys let's look at Gilead Gilead up 34 cents they're trying to hold the 50 ma that's the monthly let's go to the Daily all right so we had one two three four five six seven eight bars down we had a little bit of consolidation came down uh I don't think there's really anything down I mean you got a couple little pivots in this area but uh just a little bit overselling a little bit of people just getting the heck out saying you know what I'm done oh my gosh what's happening to gilia then they Bounce It Up get some people to get back into this thing if you're bullish you need to recapture this moving average in this moving average then I think we could go up and fill the Gap and then possibly to 200 if you're long this one you got to take it off here and I would definitely turn it and short it but we still have to wait for pattern or see how this thing moves up in this area if you are bearish you're looking at getting below the low of 7677 or 67 I guess I have the 52 we low if you get below that and confirm then I think it's heading down to there's got to be some gaps in this area but ultimately maybe 6328 if we really start to dump 6361 somewhere in that area but that has a long way but like I discussed before if the Spy the iwm q's and all those start dumping this could definitely get to 6361 weekly if you're a if you're a bull you need to get above this breakdown bar I would say right in here but ultimately you have to get above the 20 ma the 20 ma is curling down not good that's telling me that if this go runs in the price and this sets up in a pattern this will push this one low until we get back above the 20 ma which is around 82 bucks it's a it's a bare setup right now this is nice consolidation I would have Lov to and seen this one a little bit more and then price run into it after a bull or a bearish pattern but we broke down a little early but it's setting up in another inside bar possibly going to move lower monthly monthly again at that monthly close so we have a couple weeks left it needs to get above the 50 ma to get a little momentum to start moving up again if this one does happen to move up into the 8640 area and then recapture the seven or the 50 retrace at 9350 this should curl down this is a dead- on short up in this level again got to keep an eye on the on the other uh indexes the Spy the cues I know I keep saying that but I want to make sure you guys understand everything will be a market trade those sell look the hell out everything is going to dump I don't care what it is what name it is and if it's up that day or up on earnings and the markets continue to sell it will end up going down period uh I IBB so the IBB caught a little bit of a bid it was up two bucks today I think it was up as high as four though it's it's trying let me tell you it's trying to come off I mean it captured this captured the 50 ma holding holding when these things uh crossed over that's when we got the little bit of a rip up if you are bullish in this in this uh ETF if you want to look at it that way it is an ETF you need to get above the 50 Ma and you need to continue up let's see where it retraced today it's got to be a 382 or the 25 let's take it from here yeah so we're into the 350 retrace we're into this little bit of a trend line it needs to recapture the 20 ma if it does not get up there and confirm then we're definitely going down if it does then you have the 618 and the 750 you get into the 294 area the 293 somewhere in here you start adding shorts again if it gets back to 300 you do it again if it gets above and confirms you stop out if you are bullish you want to start tightening up your stops up here again if the markets dump this will start moving lower again this is you know technically it's okay we're getting a bounce because you have some support down in here but we are into the 382 the markets are floating up on no volume keep an eye on this one this is a daily so it's still kind of bearish but we are holding up with the Mas if you're bearish you want to close below these I think we can hit double bottom around 278 we're definitely going to fill the Gap here at 27656 and I think we could come into at these pivots here around 265 to to 267 or so and uh let's look at the weekly weekly same thing we need to capture the 50 ma it is ugly if this thing closes below this candle then we confirm below the 50 then we're looking to recapture the uh get below the 20 ma and then continue down from there if you're bullish you need to get above the 50 and try for this High pivot around 300 again this is this is slightly bullish but now it's starting to set up in a macro bearish pattern so be careful with the IBB this thing can dump this is the pattern I'm really worried about great inside bar bearish pattern we're starting to do a micro bull right here but if this closes below this level on a monthly close this is going down at least to 250 250 area 253 area or the 50 ma let's get right into McDonald's MCD we're going to just go over this one real quick this one here gosh I love you know this was starting to set up real real nice on an inside bar they popped it up a little topping tail it's not at the top so I can't say it is but I'll take it some bears came out pushed it right back down now we're consolidating I still want to see it try getting below the 20 they held it up on light volume we capture the 20 again we're definitely filling the Gap and we're going down if you're bullish you need to recapture the 50 the um 618 here and get above the 200 then possibly we might go up running out of time here but look at this inside bar they tried to capture it bam rejected coming right back in this is bearish then on the monthly to this one was another stretched one where it's coming back into uh home base which is the 20 ma all right guys that's it for thes
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