What commodities are a good investment? - With Marc Faber

요약 보기

결론: 장기적으로 원자재 전반, 특히 석유와 농산물은 매력적이나 과거 역사상 원자재는 장기적으로 하락 추세였음. 원자재 장기 전망: 지난 100~200년간 원자재는 장기 하락 추세였으나, 1970년대·1999~2008·2011년 등 급등기가 있었음. 2008년 유가는 147달러까지 올랐다가 6개월 내 급락함. 원자재 급등 요인: 기상 이변(플로리다 동결로 오렌지 작황 피해), 가축 질병(돼지 공급 부족) 같은 공급 충격이 있을 때 일부 원자재가 급등할 수 있음. 최근 목재와 유가가 급등한 상태이며 유가는 여전히 과거 고점 이하. 석유 전망: 바이든 행정부의 화석연료 보조금 중단 등 정책 변화로 단기 하락 압력이 있었으나 장기적으로는 석유가 좋은 투자라고 봄. 최근 석유는 다시 주목받는 중. 기후·에너지 비판: 배터리·풍력·태양광 생산에도 많은 에너지가 필요하고, 비트코인 같은 암호화폐도 막대한 전력을 소모해 탄소 감축 목적과 모순됨. 석탄은 오염이 거의 없이 발전 가능하다는 주장도 함. 인프라 변화: 바이든 취임 후 키스톤 파이프라인이 취소되어 캐나다산 원유가 철도 수송으로 바뀌었고, 이는 워런 버핏 소유 유니온퍼시픽 철도 수혜로 연결된다고 언급함. 석유·석탄 주식 전망: S&P500 내 석유 비중이 역대 최저 수준이며 통계적으로 극도로 저평가되어 있음. 일부 기관은 규정상 석유주 매도를 강제당하는 상황이라고 주장. 석탄주는 석유보다 더 역발상 투자 대상이라고 봄. 호주·영국 저평가: 호주와 영국 시장이 S&P500·나스닥 대비 매우 저평가되어 있으며, 경제 펀더멘털도 양호하다고 평가. 원자재 노출을 원하면 호주 달러와 호주 주식 보유를 제안함. 출연자 전망: 장기적으로 원자재·석유·농산물 긍정적, 단기 급등 가능성 언급, 석유 장기 투자 긍정적, 석탄주 역발상 매력, 호주 주식·달러 긍정적.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. so as far as do you believe that commodities in general uh are a good long-term investment from here like talking about oil in particular agriculture which we've had a very nice trade on dba which is an etf that tracks agricultural commodities we've done very nicely with that um so far this year oil i think could be good longer term uh obviously it's been in a downtrend it's been suppressed with obviously you know the pandemic but you then you've got the byte administration who will no longer provide subsidies for fossil fuels and they're more about renewable energies but i still think oil longer term would be a good investment and i also think agricultural and commodities in general um would be a good longer term investment what's your view on oil going forward longer term well the one thing i have to say about commodities in the very long run say if you look at the last 200 years or 100 years commodities are not a good investment yes they've been a downtrend for a very long time yeah they have periods of time when they go ballistic yes they oil in the 70s gold silver in the 70s wheat corn beans between 1969 and 73 and then in the 1990s you had from time to time a bull market in things like coffee or cocoa or wheat and so forth and then we had a huge bull market in commodities between 1999 and depending which one 2008 and 2011.

02. so 2008 oil er peaked out at 147 but then it collapsed within six months to 30 years they can have this huge moves very quickly yeah because in some commodities the demand stays stable but shortages can develop say there's a freeze in florida then most of the orange crop gets destroyed yeah or you have a sickness in uh in swines then maybe a pork shortage occurs and so so some commodities can go ballistic as we've seen recently you know from the beginning from approximately june today lumber has gone ballistic yes yes and oil has also recently gone up strongly from the loads last april yes they're still below the peak you ask me about oil yes i agree with you i think there's a lot of uh misunderstanding about climate change i'm not denying that maybe it's good if we do something and save on energy and have a you know kind of carbon dioxide reduction in the world but the question is uh really do we reach or do we attempt to read to reach a carbon dioxide free world by producing actually more carbon dioxide you understand if we build batteries if we build windmills if we build solar panels it also requires energy yes if we build bitcoins the cryptocurrencies use a hell of a lot of energy yes sure then it's kind of funny that people who propagate electric cars like must go and buy bitcoins that actually defeat the purpose of reducing the fossil fuel consumption sure so there are lots of things and the clean energy guys as an example within three days that mr biden was elected he cancelled the keystone pipeline and the oil that flows from canada to the u.s yeah will now not flow through a pipeline which is nowadays the most efficient way to send oil from a to b yeah it has been replaced by putting the oil on railroad tanks on the railroad called union pacific owned by warren buffett now you get the picture of how the system works yes it's not the small guy who's making the money now the crowding capitalists yeah 100 they can manipulate the system uh however they like but yeah i i realize yes definitely so i think oil for me it's come back a little bit into favor but i can show you charts that show the oil component of the snp is at the lowest level level ever so in other words you take the s p has a say a market value of uh 80 trillion oil is now at the lowest as a percent of that 80 trillion aha why is that very it's statistically extremely depressed and you know we have this uh kind of environment uh corporate governance and so forth bs the institutions some of them they will no longer buy oil stocks they're actually forced to sell them because the trustees the trustees is another group of completely useless people like government officials and people that work in compliance the bureaucrats that are completely useless in any business but they are telling you how to invest money and service so they say no more oil stocks in portfolios no more coal stocks this is even more hated than oil when nowadays actually coal can be used to generate energy at practically no pollution wow yeah very interesting coal stocks are in my opinion even a greater contrarian plate than oil yes but you know you most of your viewers and listeners are in australia and do that i just want to say you look at two markets that are incredibly depressed relative you know as compared to the s p 500 compared to the nasdaq or what not australia and uh the uk come out the best they're very depressed they have reasonable economic fundamentals yeah in the case of australia they're actually quite good but they are very depressed and if you want to be in the sectors to participate in commodities bases to own australian dollars and australian stocks