원문 보기
the year has started with a significant amount of global economic and financial turmoil and of course in addition to economic and and the Financial Risk there are also geopolitical risk what's happening right now in the Middle East that is burning and potential for contagion in financial Market in the economy the risk of terrorism the Russia Ukraine conflict and the fact that the Russian be is becoming more aggressive the political problems of Europe and the Euro Zone where you could have disintegration and vulcanization and of course the implication of the rise of China and is going to be peaceful or not lots of geopolitical questions and therefore people now are asking the questions are are we going to have another Global financial crisis are we going to have another Global recession are we going to start to have a correction in equity Market or going to be the start of a of a route of a new be Market why is all prices falling and is it a good sign or bad sign for the global economy if the price of o is falling because there is too much Supply on net that'ss bad for producers and net exporters but it's good for the global economy because you're redistributing income from those who are saving it all exporters to those who are spending that are all consumers however lately I think that the reasons why o prices are falling is not just the glat of Supply but also lack of global aggregate demand China is slowing down Emerging Markets are slowing down even the US is slowing down and if the fall in all price is a signal of weak Global growth then it's a negative and that's why stock markets the US and globally have reacted negatively to the recent fall in all prices is a signal of weakness in global economic growth what's going to happen to the global economy this year for now has been a mild economic expansion since October Positive Growth that was beginning to accelerate but like last year shocks like China and others can lead to a deceleration of growth and this expansion becoming a slow down and I think that's the most likely scenario so we're going to go from an expansion to a Slowdown and the question is are we going to go to an outright contraction a recession I would roll out the recession scenario because that would require a collapse of China a collapse of Emerging Market the stall of growth in US Europe and Japan it's a tail Risk by a 20% probability but this expansion that was already lukewarm and anemic might become an economic slowdown if it becomes an economic slowdown the correction Global Equity Market could become a bare Market market and if it becomes a bare Market it's going to feed back to the real economy leading to another loop downwards in economic slowdown so that's a risk for this year so the good news is the me we may not have another Global recession the good news we're not going to have another Global financial crisis the bad news there will be a significant economic slowdown and this is going to be a bad year for asset prices now I had to describe the global economy the MF calls it the new mediocre I call it the new abnormal terms that did not even exist 10 years ago are now the normal we had heard 10 years ago the term Zer zero interest rate policy the term QE quantity easing the term CE credit easing the term ndr negative deposit rate the term FG forward guidance or FX intervention this is totally unconventional the causality is not going from money increasing causing inflation but the lack of inflation causing central banks to become increasingly conventional we live in a world in which there is a global savings glat there is a global investment slump where there is too much supply of goods Services labor and so on and not enough demand for goods and services in part because we have the mistake and policy mix too much Reliance on monetary policy too little Reliance of fiscal policy infrastructure spending and things that boost aggregate demand and that's the world we live right now of a conventional monetary policy think about this technological innovation that everybody here or in Silicon Valley is giddy about unfortunately these Technologic Innovations are becoming increasingly Capital intensive skill buyers and labor savings so if you're an owner of Financial and economic capital you're going to do well if you have skills like all of you here you're going to do well but if you're a low middle skill worker Blue Collar by white collar your jobs and income is going to displac by technology populist parties of the right and the left that are against free market against technology against trade against globalization against migration are becoming more popular in the cor and periphery of Euro Zone in the US with the Tea Party in the Middle East even in Asia and that's going to become socially and political problem if inequality Rises and we don't find a way to make sure that trade globalization and Technology benefits all eventually there will be a backlash against globalization so I know that technology can be making us all better off but some of the consequences of technology for jobs for income for inequality for distribution of gains for social and political instability are things that have to be discussed
Comments 0