저자: NourielRoubini · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 단기적으로 글로벌 경기 둔화와 자산가격 조정이 예상되지만 즉각적인 글로벌 침체나 금융위기 가능성은 낮고, 장기적으로는 기술 변화와 불평등 확대가 핵심 과제다. 중국 경착륙 우려: 중국은 연착륙도 경착륙도 아닌 'bumpy/rough landing'이 기본 시나리오이며, 성장률은 올해 약 6%에서 2020년대 말 5% 수준으로 둔화될 것으로 봤다. 중국 붕괴로 인한 신흥국 위기와 글로벌 침체는 낮은 확률(tail risk)로 평가했다. 신흥국 및 상품: 신흥국은 과잉 정책 실수와 구조개혁 미흡으로 취약하며, 상품 슈퍼사이클은 끝났다고 봤다. 유가 하락은 공급 요인과 글로벌 총수요 약화가 겹친 결과로, 생산국에는 부정적이라고 설명했다. 미국 경제와 연준: 미국은 비교역 부문은 양호하나 제조업과 에너지 부문이 약하고, 강달러가 무역수지를 악화시킨다고 봤다. 인플레이션이 없는 상황에서 연준이 금리를 올린 것은 실수였으며, 올해는 금리 인상을 멈추거나 되돌릴 수도 있다고 전망했다. 유럽: 그리스 Grexit은 연기되었을 뿐 회피되지 않았고, 영국 브렉시트 국민투표에서 탈퇴가 다수가 될 경우 EU와 유로존 해체의 시작이 될 수 있다고 경고했다. 주변국의 긴축·개혁 피로와 핵심국(독일 등)의 구제금융 피로가 충돌할 위험을 지적했다. 시나리오와 자산시장: 기본 시나리오는 확장에서 둔화로의 전환이며, 글로벌 침체 확률은 약 20%로 제시했다. 주식시장 조정이 약세장으로 번지면 실물경제로 피드백될 수 있어 올해 자산가격에는 나쁜 한 해가 될 것이라고 봤다. 뉴 노멀/뉴 어브노멀: 잠재성장률 하락, 부채 디레버리징에 따른 성장 하향, 제로·마이너스 금리와 QE 등 비전통적 통화정책의 상시화를 지적했다. 유동성 확대에도 인플레이션은 낮고 디플레 위험이 있으며, 자산 인플레이션과 향후 자산·신용 버블 위험이 존재한다고 설명했다. 비트코인 및 법정화폐 대체론: 법정화폐가 암호화폐로 대체된다는 주장은 틀렸으며, 작년 비트코인은 가치의 약 2/3를 잃은 최악의 통화 자산이었다고 언급했다. 장기 전망: 기술(에너지, 바이오, IT, 제조 기술, 핀테크, 방위 기술)은 긍정적이지만, 자본·고숙련 중심 기술 변화로 저숙련 노동자가 밀려나고 불평등과 사회·정치적 불안정, 반세계화 움직임이 커질 수 있다고 경고했다. 지정학적으로는 리더 부재의 'G-zero' 세계라고 진단했다.
다듬은 글
uh good afternoon everyone uh it's a great pleasure H being here for the first time I was always meeting Stephy and Yosi in Davos and they were always telling me come here and I said I'm an old fart and I don't know anything about technology but then they insisted and I try to be here and speak in front of this great crowd um I would like to talk I have only 20 minutes about the world economy and I want also to speak not only about the short run but also on how trade globalization and techn technology is going to affect jobs incomes and the future of the global economy long term so then I'm going to be able to talk about the shortterm and the long term in 20 minutes but I'll give it the best try uh let's start with the short term the year has started with a significant amount of global economic and financial turmoil markets are very volatile there's been a massive correction in us and Global Equity prices and there are many questions on people's minds about what's going to happen to the global economy this year is China going to have a softland or hard Landing will there be a collapse of their stock market and their currency and of their economy has the Federal Reserve made a mistake by raising rates now should have waited longer given the US economy is slowing down what are the problems of Europe and the Euro Zone some people believe there'll be eventually collapse of the Euro Zone and of the European Union the risk of brexit the risk of grexit now the migration crisis terrorism populism austerity and reform fatigue in the peripher of Euro Zone bailout fatigue in the core of the Euro Zone with this collaps in all prices what does it say about the global economy is the supply story is it theand story why Emerging Markets we growing very fast now are sharply slowing down is it cyclical or it's structural is going to be a financial crisis in these emerging markets and of course in addition to economic and and Financial Risk there are also geopolitical risk what's happening right now in the Middle East that is burning and potential for contagion in financial Market in econom the risk of terrorism the Russia Ukraine conflict and the fact that the Russian be is becoming more aggressive the political problems of Europe and the Euro Zone where you could have disintegration and vulcanization and of course the implication of the rise of China and is going to be peaceful or not lots of geopolitical questions and therefore people now are asking the questions are are we going to have another Global financial crisis are we going to have another Global recession are we going to start to have a correction in equity Market or going to be the start of a uh of route of a new bear market now let's talk about the recent turmoil and what are the causes of it and try to understand what's going on right now first factor of course is the worry about the Chinese hard Landing of a collapse of its economy of a recession in China of a collapse of his currency and a collapse also of his stock market I think that markets a year ago were too optimistic about China believing in a soft Landing today they are too pessimistic they believe in hard Landing in China I've always had the view that China is going to have neither a soft nor a hard Landing what I call a bumpy Landing or a rough Landing grow this year maybe 6% going towards 5% by the end of decade because potential growth in China has slowed down sharply so it's going to be rough yes but there going to be a collapse of China the lead to a collapse of emerging markets and a global recession I think that's a tail risk with low probability as of now of course Emerging Markets are doing poorly because a bunch of tail winds globally are becoming headwinds China's not going to grow any longer 11% at best 56 the FED is going to Exit Zero policy rates and money is now flowing out of emerging markets and the commodity super cycle is over because of supply and demand factors and many of these emerging market that made policy mistake lose monetary Fiscal Credit policies and many of them did not do the structural reform to increase potential growth now that potential growth is falling so Emerging Markets are fragile the US is a mixed bag the non- traded sector is doing well job creation is there Manufacturing and traded sector is weak because of low and falling oil prices is hurting the oil energy sector because of a strong dollar is hurting the trade balance of the United States and Manufacturing in my view the FED made a mistake by raising rates where there was no inflation and now this year they have to stop because given the turmoil and given the weakness of the US economy growth close to zero in the fourth quarter probably very weak in the first quarter the FED is not going to hike as much as they want they might even have to reverse themselves why is all prices falling and is it a good sign or bad sign for the global economy if the price of oil is falling because there is too much Supply on net that'ss bad for producers and net exporters but is good for the global economy because you're redistributing income from those who are saving it all exporters to those who are spending that are all consumers however lately I think that the reasons why all prices are falling is not just the glat of Supply but also lack of global aggregate demand China is slowing down Emerging Markets are slow slowing down even the US is slowing down and if the fall in all price is a signal of weak Global growth then it's a negative and that's why stock markets the US and globally have reacted negatively to the recent fall in all prices is a signal of weakness in global economic growth this fall in all prices also leading to stresses in credit markets and in bond markets especially in the United States where there was too much leverage and debt and risk taking by all energy and high yield and highly average corporates that now are in a more fragile situation even earnings and revenue growth bottom line and Top Line revenues of firms are slowing down for the first time and that's one of the reason behind the market correction and finally there is whole sets of problem in the Euro Zone weak economic growth lack of structural reform the risk of terrorism the migration crisis that remains unresolved the risk that grexit has been only postponed and not avoided and the risk that if the UK is going to have a referendum this year on brexit a majority of Brit might vote to exit the Euro Zone the European Union and that could be the beginning of the end of the European Union could be at the beginning of the end of the Euro Zone if grait does occur in the peripheral of the Euro Zone there is now austerity and reform fatigue you see it in Greece you see it in Portugal you see it in Spain you see it in Italy but increasing there is also bailout fatigue in Germany Netherlands in Finland in the core of the Euro Zone where they say enough of this enough of bailing out this country or not doing reform and austerity at which point reform and austerity fatigue is going to clash with bailout fatigue and it's going to lead to tensions within the Euro Zone I think what's going to happen in Germany is going to be very important so if you think about this Outlook then you have to ask yourself the following question what's going to happen to the global economy this year for now has been a mild economic expansion since October Positive Growth that was beginning to accelerate but like last year shocks like China and others can lead to a dis ation of growth and this expansion becoming a Slowdown and I think that's the most likely scenario so we're going to go from an expansion to a Slowdown and the question is are we going to go to an outright contraction a recession I would rule out the recession scenario because that would require a collapse of China a collapse of Emerging Market the stall of growth in US Europe and Japan it's a tail risk but a 20% probability but this expansion that was already lukewarm and anemic might become an economic slowdown and if becomes an economic slowdown the correction Global Equity Market could become a bare market and if it becomes a bare Market it's going to feed back to the real economy leading to another loop downwards in economic slowdown so that's a risk for this year so the good news is the me we may not have another Global recession the good news is we're not going to have another Global financial crisis the bad news there will be a significant economic slowdown and this is going to be a bad year for asset prices I had to describe it the global economy the MF calls it the new mediocre I call it the new abnormal why the new normal for a number of reasons are important first of all potential growth both in advanced economies and Emerging Market has fallen for a number of reasons part of it is demographics part of it is the rise of inequality that reduces consumption part of it is globally there is too much savings there's too little investment there's too much supply of goods and services and there is not enough aggregate demand so potential growth in advanced economies and Emerging Market is now lower than before in spite of Technology that so far is not increasing productivity growth secondly actual growth for a number of years is going to be below potential That's What's happen in Us in Europe and what's happening right now in Emerging Market why when you have too much debt and leverage you have to deleverage and The Leverage means to spend less to save more or theave less and that implies 5 10 years where growth is below potential as this painful process the leveraging occurs it started in United States it spread to Europe and now is the lag of China and emerging market Market are the leveraging and therefore their actual growth is going to be for a number of years below potential moreover the other abnormal part of this Global economies that monetary policies are becoming increasingly unconventional terms that did not even exist 10 years ago are now the norm we had heard 10 years ago the term Zer zero interest rate policy the term QE quantity vising the term CE credit eing the term ndr negative deposit rate the term FG forward guidance or tax intervention this is totally unconventional monetary policy and it's becoming the norm it's going to stay with us in Us in Europe in Japan in the smaller European economies and around the world we have even this Paradox that today there's about $2 trillion doll of long-term Bonds in Europe in Euro Zone and Japan that have a negative nominal yield negative nominal yield you can borrow at negative interest rates for 10 20% in Switzerland or other parts of Europe and the Euro zone now some people argued incorrectly that all these easy money all this debasing of Fiat currencies by Central Bank they argued incorrectly that would lead to inflation and hyperinflation that would lead to asset prices like Bond deals Rising through the roof they would lead to a collapse of the US dollar that will lead to the value of gold going through the roof and it will lead to Fiat currencies the based by central banks being replaced by cryptocurrency like Bitcoin but look at the data just the opposite has happened inflation not only is low but is falling there is a risk of deflation not of high inflation interest rates instead of going higher on the long term are going lower and as I pointed out in throughout the world you have negative long-term interest rates for $2 trillion do of government bonds the value of dollar has not collapsed has skyrocketed the value of gold has fallen by more than 50% in the last two years and guess what last year the worst performing currency in the world if you can call it a currency was Bitcoin the Lost two-thirds of its value so much for fiat currency being replaced by cryptocurrencies so what has happened why all this easy money doubling quadrupling and more so of Base money has not led to inflation has not led to inflation because we live in a world when there is too much supply of goods and services there is excess supply of labor there is an excess supply of Commodities there is an excess Supply relative demand of Housing and real estate and therefore the pleasures that are towards low inflation low and deflation and central banks to avoid deflation are aggressively going to zero rates negative rates quantity easing credit eing forward guidance and the whole slew of unconventional monetary policy so the causality is not going from money increasing causing inflation but the lack of inflation causing central banks to become increasingly conventional we live in a world in which there is a global savings glot there is a global investment slump where there is too much supply of goods Services labor and so on and not enough demand for goods and services in part because we have the mistaken policy mix too much Reliance on monetary policy two lital lines of fiscal policy infrastructure spending and things that boost aggregate demand and that's the world we live right now of a conventional monetary policy this is also the reason why inflation instead of going higher has been going lower because there is not enough demand there is excessive Supply there is no inflation in Goods there is no inflation in Services what there is is asset inflation the Central Bank policies of unconventional monetary policy have led to asset inflation while the real economy is still mediocre and this asset inflation may lead to asset reflation and eventually to asset and credit bubble and if this asset and credit bubble were to build over time you could have a risk of another Global financial crisis not this year but two or three years down the line so the Paradox no Goods inflation but asset inflation so we have this Paradox that while Wall Street is doing well because until the recent correction asset price were going higher and higher Main Street was actually lukewarm and anemic and there's this gap between what asset prices are and their fundamental value and this gap between Wall Street and Main Street implied eventually correction downward in asset prices has to occur like the one has started at the beginning of this year the other Paradox of this new abnormal is there is a lot of geopolitical risk in the world but they don't seem to have an impact on the real economy or financial markets Whenever there was was turmo in the past in the Middle East it led to a stationary O Shock you happen in the Yum kipur war of 73 with the St flation of 7479 7475 it happened after the Iranian Revolution it happened after the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait today is the Paradox that we have the entire Middle East is burning from the mreb all the way to Afghanistan and Pakistan in between and in spite of that all prices are falling why there is a glat of Supply Shell gas and oil and new technologies in order America but also lot of Supply from Latin America to East Africa and around the world so the Middle East might be burning but all price are falling lower and lower it's a supply story but also weakness of global aggregate demand let me briefly say something about the long-term of the global economy now if you want to be an optimist you point out there are many things that are positive medium long term about the global economy the first one is technology there are many industries of the future ET Energy Technologies Shell gas and clean tech green economy BT biotechnology biomedical research and all the things are going to make us live longer and healthier of course it Information Technology Web 2.0 3.0 cloud computing internet of things and all the apps and Technologies are going to change the world for the better Mt Manufacturing Technologies robotics automation artificial intelligence 3D printing personalized manufacturing and so on but also ft fintech and financial technology Oles and how they're going to change financial markets and assets and and and and Banking and finally I would say also DT application of tech to defense system because in a world in which there are geopolitical risk of course even defense systems are becoming more technological advanc like drones and so on so you have at least six industries of the future and people say they're going to change completely productivity the way we live we work and so on for the better that's positive second positive there's been a global economic recovery since 200 n economic but also Financial Market recovery the balance sheets of Corporations and their pnl is positive they're sitting on trillions of dollar of cash and profits if they're becoming more optimistic about the future they can spend more they can do more capex more hiring more m&a activities Emerging Markets might be right now wobbly but they're going to be a rising part of the global economy population dividends middle class consumer Society eventually more than half of global GDP is going to be emerging markets and most of global growth is coming from Emerging Markets trade and globalization are still ongoing and that's positive for the global economy and demographic Trends imply a population dividends in emerging markets and the fact we're going to live longer and healthier maybe until 80 90 or 100 given the new biomedical research these are the positives but what are the things you have to worry about the global economy in the medium long term first of all think about this technological innovation that everybody here or in Silicon Valley is giddy about un unfortunately these technology Innovations are becoming increasingly Capital intensive skill buyas and labor savings so if you're an owner of Financial and economic capital you're going to do well if you have skills like all of you here you're going to do well but if you're a low middle skill worker Blue colar by white colar your jobs and income is got displaced by technology secondly inequality is rising is rising because of trade because of globalization because of Technology but also because of winner te all effects the Superstar effects whoever is the top in their own field it gets the economy of scale of a market of billion people three the future of jobs and incomes Technology robotics automation eventually is going to replace most jobs already half of the jobs in Us in the next 10 years could be replaced by technology so there'll be a lot of output but there will be a distribution issue of it those who have capital and skills are going to do well those who don't have capital and skills and have only low labor are going to do poorly in terms of income and even low using jobs forever the are problems with demographics yeah we're going to live until 100 but can we afford it with the cost of healthcare and pension system are unfunded and in Emerging Markets this population dividend can become a nightmare like we saw in the Middle East because if people are young angry unemployed unskilled and they don't have jobs eventually revolutions occur additional stresses there's too much debt and leverage private and public sector in the global economy and that leads to repeated financial crisis in advanced economies and emerging markets and Financial are becoming more virulent more violent more frequent and More damag in terms of economic and social cost and the combination of all these factors imply that there is rising social and political instability around the world both in advanced economies Emerging Markets populist parties of the right and the left that are against free market against technology against trade against globalization against migration are becoming more popular in the cor and peripher of Euro Zone in the US with the Tea Party in the Middle East even in Asia and that's going to become socially and politically problem if inequality Rises and we don't find a way to make sure that trade globalization and Technology benefits all eventually there will be a backlash against globalization and finally in this world in which there is disruption coming from technology rising and falling firms but also entire sectors if entire economies there is rising geopolitical risk we live in a gzero world in which there is no Global leader there is no Global Edon and the global powers of the world live in a sit sitation of rising economic social political and even geopolitical conflict so I know that technology can be making us all better off but some of the consequences of technology for jobs for income for inequality for distribution of gains for social and political instability are things that have to be discussed okay thanks very much for your attention
Comments 0