저자: DLD Conference · 외국인
다듬은 글
The year has started with a significant amount of global economic and financial turmoil. Beyond economic and financial risks, there are also geopolitical risks. What's happening in the Middle East is burning, and there is potential for contagion into financial markets and the economy. There is the risk of terrorism, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the fact that Russia is becoming more aggressive. There are the political problems of Europe and the Eurozone, where you could see disintegration and balkanization. And of course there is the question of whether the rise of China will be peaceful. There are lots of geopolitical questions.
Because of this, people are now asking: Are we going to have another global financial crisis? Another global recession? Will we see a correction in the equity market, or is it the start of a new bear market? Why are all prices falling, and is that a good or bad sign for the global economy?
If oil prices are falling because there is too much supply, that's bad for producers and net exporters, but it's good for the global economy, because income is being redistributed from those who save as exporters to those who spend as consumers. Lately, however, I think the reason oil prices are falling is not just the glut of supply but also a lack of global aggregate demand. China is slowing down, emerging markets are slowing down, and even the US is slowing down. If the fall in oil prices is a signal of weak global growth, then it's negative, and that's why stock markets in the US and globally have reacted negatively to the recent drop. It signals weakness in global economic growth.
올해 세계 경제 전망
So what's going to happen to the global economy this year? For now, since October, we've had a mild economic expansion with positive growth that was beginning to accelerate. But as with last year, shocks like those from China and elsewhere can lead to a deceleration of growth, with this expansion turning into a slowdown. I think that's the most likely scenario: we're going to move from an expansion to a slowdown. The question is whether we'll go to an outright contraction, a recession. I would put the recession scenario at about a 20% probability, a tail risk, because it would require a collapse in China, a collapse in emerging markets, and a stall in growth in the US, Europe, and Japan.
But this expansion, which was already lukewarm and anemic, might become an economic slowdown. If it does, the correction in global equity markets could turn into a bear market, and that would feed back into the real economy, creating another downward loop of economic slowdown. So that's a risk for this year. The good news is that we may not have another global recession, and we're not going to have another global financial crisis. The bad news is that there will be a significant economic slowdown, and this is going to be a bad year for asset prices.
뉴 노멀에서 뉴 어브노멀로
I'd describe the global economy this way: the IMF calls it the "new mediocre," and I call it the "new abnormal." Terms that didn't even exist 10 years ago are now normal. Ten years ago we heard terms like zero interest rate policy, QE (quantitative easing), CE (credit easing), NIRP (negative deposit rates), forward guidance, and FX intervention. This is totally unconventional. The causality isn't running from money creation causing inflation; rather, the lack of inflation is causing central banks to become increasingly unconventional.
We live in a world with a global savings glut and a global investment slump, where there is too much supply of goods, services, and labor, and not enough demand for them. This is partly because of a policy mix mistake: too much reliance on monetary policy and too little on fiscal policy, such as infrastructure spending and other measures that boost aggregate demand. That's the world we live in right now.
기술 혁신과 불평등
Think about the technological innovation that everyone here, or in Silicon Valley, is giddy about. Unfortunately, these technological innovations are becoming increasingly capital-intensive, skill-biased, and labor-saving. If you own financial and economic capital, you're going to do well. If you have skills like all of you here, you're going to do well. But if you're a low- or middle-skill worker, whether blue-collar or white-collar, your jobs and income are going to be displaced by technology.
Populist parties on the right and left that oppose free markets, technology, trade, globalization, and migration are becoming more popular, in the core and periphery of the Eurozone, in the US with the Tea Party, in the Middle East, and even in Asia. This is going to become a social and political problem if inequality rises and we don't find a way to ensure that trade, globalization, and technology benefit everyone. Eventually there will be a backlash against globalization. I know technology can make us all better off, but its consequences for jobs, income, inequality, the distribution of gains, and social and political stability are things we have to discuss.
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