Current Environment Is Conducive For Debt Investing: Oaktree's Howard Marks | BQ Prime

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결론: 현재 환경은 부채(채권·신용) 투자에 유리하며, 자산배분에서 채권 비중이 늘어나고 주식·사모 대체투자 비중은 줄어들 가능성이 크다. 과거 저금리 시대(2012~2020)에는 현금·국채 수익률이 거의 0~1.5%에 그쳐 연금·기금 등이 목표수익률(약 7%)을 맞추기 위해 위험자산으로 내몰렸다고 설명. 현재는 고수익채권(하이일드) 수익률이 4%대(1년 전)에서 크게 올라 실질적 활용 가치가 생겼다고 평가. 구체적 수치는 자막 누락으로 확인 불가. 부채는 발행자가 상환 능력이 있으면 확정 수익과 안정성을 제공하는 반면, 주식은 상승 여지는 있으나 보장이 없다고 비교. 신용등급 체계(AAA~BBB 투자등급, 그 아래 투기등급)를 언급하며 옥트리가 하이일드 투자의 선구자로 44년간 운용해왔다고 소개. 높은 수익을 위해 위험한 전략으로 갈 필요가 줄었으며, 과거 'TINA(주식 외 대안 없음)' 시기의 투자자를 '수갑 찬 자원자'라 비유하며 비판. 자산배분 전망: 주식과 사모주식 등 대체투자 비중이 줄고 신용 자산 비중이 늘어날 것으로 봄. 신흥국 관련 질문은 자막상 답변이 확인되지 않음.

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01. what are the implications for asset allocation in such a scenario both for the Western World however and then I would love for you to maybe dwell upon a little bit about the implications for emerging markets as well wherein presumably uh the the the Specter of growth could be slightly higher than what we might see uh elsewhere at least in the very near terms well from uh uh October of 2012 until February of 2020 I gave a speech uh I read I changed the speech from time to time but I didn't change the title the title was living in a low return world or investing in a low return world and the point is that you know most of what Oaktree does is investing in debt uh bonds loans fixed income credit there are a lot of different names for it but it's it's lending basically and you know the the loan the the the interest rates on lending were very low um and uh as I said before cash yielded zero put money in the bank you got zero uh some parts of the world of course you got negative um you bought treasuries you got one or one and a half percent uh and so forth so nobody wants those kinds of returns um and and uh and you know it was so uh I recently saw a graph of the Holdings of debt in one of the major investment Banks High net worth group and it basically went from 30 to 20 percent uh uh the Holdings of K of uh cash and and equivalent Securities uh you know people just didn't want it and so uh you you couldn't get a livable uh income uh from debt uh now you can uh so I think the debt can and of course debt is is much safer than equities equities has upside debt doesn't have upside but debt has a a guaranteed return assuming that the that the issuer is money good and it has uh um stability uh uh you have a promise of repayment um and it has safety so uh I think now you know now there's a much better place for debt in asset allocation than there was one or two years ago or or five years ago uh a year ago you know one of the things that we deal with is is called high yield bonds those are the bonds of of companies that are below investment grade investment grade is is a triple a double a single a triple B that's investment grade everything below that is non-investment grade or speculative starting with double b single B then the C's and the D's and the F's Etc and and uh you know oak tree is a Pioneer in high yield bonds we've been added uh for 44 years uh which which goes back to the beginning of that business a year ago high yield Bond yielded a four and something most of my clients need seven percent returns their Pension funds or endowments or insurance companies or something like that and they need seven they can't make much use of things that yield for with no upside so uh it was very difficult for them difficult for us today those bonds yielded now they have a real use in our portfolios so that's just an example uh I think that uh you know if you can get Returns the returns you need with a heavy allocation to credit or or debt uh you don't have to go into risky strategies uh for those things people had to do that in the in the teens because they used to say Tina uh there is no alternative to stocks uh I used to call those people handcuffed volunteers they were going into risky Investments not because they wanted to but because they had to to get the returns they needed now they don't have to do it to get the returns they need so I think this is going to change you'll probably have less money in equities and less money in Alternatives such as private equity