저자: 누리엘루비니 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 트럼프 취임 직후 미국 증시 랠리는 단기 부양책 때문이지만, 정책 불일치로 금리·달러 강세가 오고 무역 갈등이 겹치면 1년 내 조정 가능성이 크다. 미국 증시 전망: 재정 부양·감세·규제 완화로 처음 100일은 허니문 랠리가 가능하나, 완전고용 경제에 대규모 재정 확대를 하면 인플레와 장기금리 상승, 달러 강세로 이어진다. 이는 금융여건을 조이고 블루칼라 일자리(제조업)를 줄여 결국 성장 둔화와 시장 조정을 부른다. 통화정책: 재정 확대로 인플레가 빨라지면 친(親)비둘기파인 옐런 연준도 더 빨리 긴축해야 하며, 이는 금리 상승 요인이다. 무역 리스크: 보호무역·이민 제한·세계화 후퇴는 시장을 놀라게 하고 무역·통화 전쟁 위험을 키운다. 멕시코 생산 기업 비판, 중국 환율·무역 정책 비판이 이미 나왔다. 신흥국: 달러 강세는 신흥국 통화 약세와 달러 부채 부담을 키운다. 인도는 무역·금융 개방도가 낮아 상대적으로 덜 취약하지만, 화폐 개혁(고액권 폐지)으로 현금 유동성 경색이 수 분기 성장 둔화를 낳을 수 있다. 유럽: 작년 유로존 성장률(1.7%)이 미국(1.4%)보다 높아 경제 기초는 괜찮고 달러 강세·유로 약세는 오히려 도움. 리스크는 정치: 브렉시트 협상, 프랑스·독일·네덜란드 선거, 이탈리아 조기 선거 가능성, 반세계화·포퓰리즘 확산. 미국의 NATO·EU 입장 혼선도 불안 요인. 중국: 작년 경착륙 우려 후 정책 부양으로 성장 안정. 그러나 성장률 유지를 위해 신용 기반 고정투자를 반복해 부실자산·부채·과잉설비가 쌓이고 있어, 내년 이후 경착륙 위험이 커진다. 금: 연준의 제로금리 탈출은 금에 불리. 위기 없으면 금에 큰 상승 여력은 없다고 봄. 대신 신용·부동산·주식 등 소득을 주는 위험자산이 낫다.
다듬은 글
but it's a great pleasure to have with us Nal rubini perhaps the person who knows more about the way the world is hied than anyone else and it's always such a privilege to be here at daros to get your sense of what's going to happen in the coming year so let me dive straight into it Donald Trump about to become the prime become the president of the United States is that going to shake up the world and if so for good or for bad um it will certainly shake out the world and um there is a uge amount of uncertainty about what is domestic and foreign Economic Policy going to be let alone his own foreign uh security policies and otherwise so we're living in a world of significant uncertainty given the election of Donald Trump but that's something which is confusing many people that given that uncertainty why are the American Stock markets up so much they've risen since Donald Trump came in and I know they're expecting infrastructure spending and tax cuts in the race but there is uncertainty well the market has been rising because first of all there will be a stimulus between spending cuts uh increas in tax cuts they're going to boost growth in the short run secondly it's going to cut taxes mostly for the rich and the corporate cutting the income taxes and the corporate taxes capital gains taxes estate taxes three is going to slash regulations on energy uh oil resources on uh uh labor on financial sector on Pharma on healcare so the stock market of course is gidy about that but there is a concern that inconsistent policies by the Trump Administration over time are going to weaken economic growth and lead to a market correction so if you had to BET right now or you had to think of which way the markets are likely to head having risen in this sort of Market honeymoon with Trump would you say that the risk is more of a slide than of a further upside well for a few months the market and the economy can improve uh is going to use the first 100 days of his administration as a honeymoon period in which every day is going to announce some cutting regulation of one sort or another but the inconsistency in his Economic Policy deres from the fact that he wants to do a massive fiscal stimulus in an economy that's close to Full Employment that over time is going to increase inflation that increas in spending and cutting taxes is going to push long-term interest rates higher it's going to increase the value of the dollar and those things are going to tighten Financial condition and they're going to hurt the white blue colar who voted for him higher interest rates crimp real estate they crimp Capital spending and investment and a stronger dollar is going to significant reduce manufacturing jobs so the results of this fiscal stimulus together then with a Fed that even a doish Fed like the yell net will have to tighten faster because inflation is going to pick up faster when we have a fiscal stimulus we cannot afford implies that then it's going to have to become very protectionist on trade on migration on globalization and that's going to Spook the market first of all and it's going to lead to the risk of trade and currency Wars around the world so initially a honeymoon but inconsistent fiscal monetary mix that leads to strong dollar higher interest rates than to respon of protectionist to try to give some right me to his base and then trade Wars and retaliation may lead over time to grow slow down a market correct so if you were another another country if you were an Emerging Market you one of America's trade Partners would you be scared about the period that is coming up that there will actually genuinely be protectionism many presidents or many politicians talk about oh you know we're going to keep we're going to cut down on Outsourcing we're going to stop company we're not going to stop the export of jobs but eventually they don't do much about it do you think Trump will actually do something about it well he's already spoken about it he's bashing us corporations that are living us and start Manufacturing in Mexico is complaining about the exchange rate and trade policies of China uh there is a risk of protectionism and also the strengthening of the dollar leads to weakness of Emerging Market currencies many of these country borrowed a lot in dollar and with the dollar uh appr appreciates the real value of their dollar Deb Rises and that puts potential Financial stresses on some of those highly indebted Emerging Markets so if you were in a country like India you would be concerned well in the case of India I'm less concerned than about a typical emerging market for a variety of reasons uh India is a less open economy to trade and financial links than the typical Emerging Markets India among the major emerging markets doing well with a strong economic growth so far and therefore Global shock have the less of an ability to impact India than other emerging markets and of course India doesn't have the very large uh Trade Surplus that for example China has with the United States and for the risk of India being bashed on trade issues and so on is of course extremely narrow risk of course I guess the biggest shocks to India can come from within India like we've just seen with the with the currency ban I'm just curious as to what your on that was this entire episode of cash man in India well I think that Prime Minister Modi had first of all the right idea I think that trying to reduce the amount of tax avoidance and tax evasion is something important and in a world in which there is already a big gap between haves and hav not and Rising INE equality it's important that there is a certain degree of fairness I think that probably the implementation of that policy was was partially botched of course they wanted to maintain the secrecy they did not print enough of the new currency and the small denomination and in an economy there is a lot based on cash that has led to a liquidity squeeze that may affect for at least a few quarters economic activity by leading to some degree of economic slowdown but I know I know the argument has been used that secrecy would have prevented the printing of notes in advance but actually there could have been ways around it they could have just simply said printing a new series of 500 rupee notes uh new design it's pink in color it's got some logo on it and then printed you know hundreds and thousands of cores of of rupees kept them in a warehouse and then after demonetization they could have remonetized really fast and a lot of the pain wouldn't have hit as I pointed out and I agree with you the implementation of the idea was partially botched and that's the sense in which there were mistakes made they thought that the secret implies they shouldn't print enough but as you point out there were alternative plans that were not implemented and that has led to the liquidity squeeze that's going to have some impact on economic activity of course there also wise of bypassing you know essentially that demonetization by rich people giving the money to less rich people and G the transformation and so on so as we've seen there's an element of Arbitrage there's some some laundering that has taken place among if you look at the rest of the world and I'm just taking it through item by item Europe if 2016 was a year where lot lots of unforeseen events took place like brexit or the or the election of Donald Trump what do you think is going to happen in Europe because brexit will there will be some conclusion I assume in brexit this year there are some important elections like France and others as well do you expect a lot of uncertainty and risk in Europe well from the economic and financial point of view last year was actually an okay year for Europe and the Euro Zone actually the Euro Zone growth at 1.7% was larger than the one of the us at the mediocre 1.4% at least for a year so the Baseline on economic activity for Europe is actually okay and the strengthening of the dollar and the weakness of the Euro may help actually on the margin I think that the uncertainty in Europe theive from political and geopolitical uncertainties uh you have the brexit and the negotiation are going to be difficult and potentially uh contentious but more important there is a series of election in France in Germany in the Netherlands we may or may not have elections in Italy if it's not this year it's going to be next year and if there is a tide of a populist backlash against globalization there hit even the economies among the Western ones we have done better economically UK and us where growth has been above 2% unemployment is falling from 10 to 5 what about Continental European Euro Zone where many economies have even lower growth 1% or less where unemploy employment is high where junk pration is anemic where real incomes are not growing that backlash could be severe we could have political surprises in France in Italy in the Netherlands even in the case of Germany uh these anti- Euro parties may have an electoral surprise this positive for them so I would say the political risk in the Europe and the Euro zone are the important one at the time where the Trump Administration is giving mixed signal saying maybe the NATO is solite maybe we don't believe in the European Union uh the alliance between us and Europe has been a key key Stone of the peace and stability the world has had for the last 7 years now is been shaken up by then uncertainties of what trumps wants to do all right finally China is the there seems to be renewed optimism certainly at Davos I mean Davos is not necessarily always correct on what's going to happen in the world but there seems to be renewed optimism almost about China how do you see that play out well a year ago was the time where people were worried about Chinese hard Landing then the policy stimulus occurred in China again growth has picked up and stabilized and since they have an important political transition this year National people in Congress changes in the standing committee uh they want to keep growth stable and not create any domestic political noises uh the risk however is that the only way which they maintaining high growth for the last few years is that every time growth slows down they double down on another round of credit fueled fixed investment that means more Bad Assets more bad debts more leverage more over capacity when the rhetoric is all about rebalancing away from capex towards consumption rebalancing growth and make it more efficient they're just kicking the can down the road and there could be a big hole at some point that yes this year grow will be stable but by kicking the count down the road they creating economic and financial vulnerability that increase by next year or the following year the risk of a harder Landing in China and its Financial system so Professor Rini with so much uncertainty around why not just buy gold and sit on it I'm not sure that gold is going to be the right thing to buy this year you know the FED is going to gradually exit the zero policy rate that's not good for gold there are plenty of other risky assets that give you not just the capital gain but also some income stream whether the those are credit instruments or real estate or equities uh and therefore unless there is a major geopolitical shock or a major Financial shock that is not my Baseline I don't think that there is a huge amount of upside into gold all right Professor Rini it's always a pleasure talking to you thank you great being with you thank you
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