저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
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결론: 모비우스는 인도 시장에 여전히 강세이며, 향후 5년 내 센섹스 10만 도달 가능성을 제시한다. 시장 상황: 인도 증시는 연준 금리 결정을 앞두고 이틀 상승 후 하락 마감. 니프티 19,100선, 뱅크니프티 43,000선, 센섹스 64,000선 하회. 미드캡 지수가 벤치마크를 상회(+3.1%). 밸류에이션·리스크: 금리 5%대에서 채권 대비 주식 매력이 낮아 횡보·소폭 조정 가능성 언급. 다만 조정 여부는 누구도 예측 불가라고 선을 그음. 금리 상승으로 신흥국 기업의 차환 부담이 커질 수 있어 레버리지 의존 기업은 위험. 투자 전략: 타이밍보다 정기 분할매수(dollar cost averaging) 권장. 자기자본이익률(ROE)이 높고 부채가 낮거나 없는 기업을 선호. 중장기 전망: 5년 내 센섹스 10만 도달 전망. 중국이 현재 신흥국 지수 비중이 크지만 인도의 비중이 확대되어 중요성이 커질 것으로 봄. 해외 자금 유입 기대, 특히 인도 국내 투자자 자금이 시장을 주도. 제도 개선: 외국인·개인 투자자의 인도 투자 장벽 완화 필요. 개인이 인도 계좌를 개설해 자금을 넣고 빼는 것이 현재 어렵다고 지적. 중소형주: 지난 6~12개월간 인도 중소형주가 대형주보다 우수. 모비우스는 중소형주에 투자하며 여전히 가치가 있다고 봄. 기술을 효율화·수익성 개선에 활용하는 기업에 관심. 개별 종목 언급 없음(인도 지수 중심 발언).
다듬은 글
hello and welcome to let's talk business now volatility was back on Dalal street today markets ended the month on a somber note markets snapped two days of gains as investors look forward to the key interest rate decision from the US fed heral daia with the wrap of all the market action markets end in the negative terrain today and clearly if you see in terms of nifty as well as Bank Nifty it was an absolute interesting session because the decline has come in after two sessions of gains overall in terms of the Nifty as well uh We've Ended actually below the 19,100 mark and you have Bank Nifty which has ended below the 43,000 level sensex as well we've seen Cuts coming in there below the 64,000 Mark that we saw R IC Bank as well as Eminem were the top contributors in terms of the drag in today's session overall the key event now everyone is eyeing is the interest rate decision by the US uh Federal Reserve which is a day later so that'll be interesting to watch out for this nervousness and this uh slight bit of you know uh downt that could continue as well let's quickly look at few of the stock specific action that we've seen uh as for as sector specific real estate sector Advanced while shares of Auto were the ones that were under pressure in today's session uh overall if you go to see very quickly in terms of uh you know the midcap index that was one of the top gainers with gains of 410 of a perc coming in there and the Pharma back was the top loser as well in terms of mover SBI life HDFC life so life insurance players saw a momentum Titan Asian pains and kotk Mahindra Bank were up in trade baras on the losing end Sun Fara ahead of numbers tomorrow the stock was trading Under Pressure Eminem Aisha Motors is also seeing some bit of nervousness ahead of the auto sales numbers that will start trickling in tomorrow LTI mry see a few of the other names Iran saw some smart moves today on the back of earnings niit again was up in trade on the the back of earnings rainbow was under pressure DCF sham was one of the newsmakers Z entertainment on the back of the SAT order saw some 5% up move in today's session dcx systems was up and trade on the back of earnings blue star Advanced over 9% on the back of the profit search as well as a g& got an order worth 500 cres on the back of which we did see some smart moves so overall yes a lot of movers and shakers that were there in the market today but clearly uh the action has been slightly negative midcap index outperformed the benchmark indices with gains of 310 of a%c whereas the small cap index ended flat but this nervousness will continue taking into consideration what comes out of the US fomc because again the the commentary from Bank of Japan was kind of inconsequential so no major reactions that did come out from their value all right sensex reaching the one lakh Mark could soon be a reality that is according to mobus Capital Partners founder Mark Mobius who remains bullish on the Indian market despite Global uncertainty here's his overall outlook on Indian markets in the coming years are risk assets currently looking worthwhile valuable or are the headwinds just too large for risk assets by and large well you know there'll always be headwinds there's no question about it and people have got to keep in mind when you're investing uh the best time to invest is when you have money but investing means investing with the knowledge with research with patience and there you know you can say oh I'm afraid the sensex is going to correct tomorrow well you don't know whether it's going to correct it may go up so your best to to do dollar cost averaging in other words putting money in at different periods I do believe that uh in the next 5 years however the sensex will probably go to 100,000 and uh with that in mind if you believe that then it's best best best time to invest got it and and I'll come to that conversation as well and I'm presuming that uh all of us agree that timing the market is a mugs game but I'm still trying to understand do the headwinds currently which is the yields the geopolitics so on so forth make you believe that tactically there could be better times a few months down the line there's no question there's a great sucking sound taking place now okay because with interest rates at 5% or four or 5% um a lot of people are thinking hey why should I be in the stock market I should be putting my money into bonds so that's the reason why you've seen a lot of these markets moving sidewards and maybe a little bit down so yes uh probably there would be a correction coming along but it's not that's not a prediction no one really knows agree completely uh are uh there is a lot of talk of how the higher yields would lead to a problem for emerging market companies which have to refinance their debt B in 24 and 25 is there a clear in present danger definitely this is one of the things I've been telling the people look uh you know we go by the the criteria of a high return on Capital and low or no debt MH because with interest rates at 5% a lot of the companies that have been relying on Leverage are going to be in big trouble so you got to get out of those companies okay and and and with all of this in mind you still believe that over the next 5 years as you said sensex reaches 100,000 and India if I'm not wrong might still be a market to reckon with relative to a lot of other EMS well actually India will probably become bigger and more important in the context uh if you look at the emergency markets index uh you'll see that China dominates or at least before even with the correction China China is big but India I think is going to be coming up you're going to see India becoming much larger okay there's a a lot of sside broker firms Global in nature talk to us about how uh there is Oodles of money waiting on the sidelines FBI have made uh rather the applications for getting registered in India and we post May 20124 elections getting over we might actually see a delusion of money coming into India everything else going right is that something that you subscribe to as well yes uh you must remember the Indian market is driven by Indian investors person foremost right and there's a lot of money that's coming into the market from Indians and of course then added to that you'll see the foreign investors coming in but I think it's very important for India to make it easier to to uh try to eliminate some of the uh barriers to investing that's been a perennial complaint from a lot of Global Investors some ground has been covered you think a lot more remains or some nigg some small niggles a lot more has to be covered in other words it's got to be easier for not only institutional investors but foreign investors individual investors uh to invest okay top of your mind anything that you you reckon something should be done me there's a budget coming up at some point of time for example um I would love to open a personal account in India and bring money in and get it out that's not possible now okay and then some others school okay U Mark the other thing is you you've uh all through the years that I've heard you you've been a big proponent of smaller companies getting bigger maybe across the world but definitely in India we've seen the last 6 9 12 months Indian small caps and Indian midcaps do far better than what the larger companies have done maybe because of the individual flows maybe because of the Sip flows so on so forth is that music to to the ispu yeah definitely because that's where we're investing exactly we invest in the small and medium cap socks right and and you still believe that there is Merit out there desite the abely yes so I I mean without getting into necessarily specific names or Etc but there's a lot of newer themes that have gotten formed at the midcap and the small cap and in India and then there were the existing themes as well what within this universe excites you the most where is it that you're parking money what themes companies with technological expertise now that I don't just mean uh software companies but companies that are using technology to improve their efficiency and their profitability uh nowadays uh the big challenge for every company is how to use technology intelligently to improve their behavior and their operations so for example let's say you're running a restaurant are you using a delivery service are you using using uh the internet to promote your brand these are all the kinds of questions we ask when we look at companies
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