저자: Finance Deep Dive · 외국인
요약 보기
이 영상은 AI 관련 주식이 급락한 날의 시장 상황을 다루며, 펀드스트랫의 톰 리와의 인터뷰 내용을 중심으로 구성되어 있습니다. 진행자는 나스닥이 5.25% 하락하고 다우지수가 약 1,800포인트 떨어졌으며, 장중 저점 부근에서 거래되고 있다고 전합니다. 이날의 하락은 4월 25일 '해방의 날'과 비교되며, 당시에는 관세 수치가 적힌 보드를 대통령이 언제든 철회할 수 있었던 반면 이번에는 그런 구조가 아니라는 차이가 언급됩니다. 톰 리는 이번 하락을 예상하지 못했다고 밝히면서도, 관세 유예일, 딥시크 충격, 인식의 날 등 과거 사례와 유사하다고 설명합니다. 그는 AI 수요가 둔화되지 않을 것이며, 공급 측면에서 업계를 흔들 새로운 경쟁자도 보이지 않는다고 봅니다. 다만 자본 접근성에 중대한 제약이 생기지 않는 한 이번 대규모 재평가는 과도하다는 입장입니다. 또한 AI 인프라 투자가 데이터센터 전력 수요 등과 연결되어 있으며, 연준의 금리 정책 판단에도 영향을 줄 수 있다는 논의가 이어집니다. 영상은 성장 둔화가 금융시장에 미칠 파급효과, 그리고 급락 국면에서 주식을 매수할지에 대한 질문도 다룹니다. 이후 톰 리가 말한 '압축된 스프링' 비유, 중간선거 이후 AI 주식에 대한 정치적 압력, 채권과 주식의 자금 경쟁 논쟁, 그리고 그가 제시한 두 가지 전망의 현재 상태를 정리합니다. 두 번째 전망은 엔비디아 실적 발표(11월 17일)에서 검증될 예정이라고 소개됩니다. 영상에는 유료 멤버십 홍보가 포함되어 있으며, 투자 조언이 아니라는 점이 명시되어 있습니다.
다듬은 글
Here's the current market situation. We're at or near the intraday low for today. The Nasdaq is down 5.25%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen nearly 1,800 points. It's currently down 3.33%, and with less than thirty minutes left until the close, if we want to find a similar level, we have to go back to April 25th, the day dubbed "Liberation Day."
Tom Lee of Fundstrat joins us. Given what you said yesterday, this kind of drop probably wasn't something you anticipated.
I didn't anticipate it. But as you said, this situation is very similar to the times when the tariff pause day, the DeepSeek shock, and the day of awareness overlapped. In particular, there was a political shock called the "blue tsunami." Some of the remarks alarmed people, and I think today's decline, especially the drop during Korean market overnight trading, triggered considerable liquidation selling. There are also reports that large hedge funds are being liquidated right now.
The difference between Liberation Day and today is that back then, the president was holding up that infamous board with the tariff figures, and he could withdraw them at any time. He actually did, which is why the market reacted so strongly. So what mechanism would reverse this decline?
It's not that simple. First, there are growing concerns about where AI development is headed. But we need to maintain the right perspective. One, AI demand will not slow down. Many discoveries are still in progress, and companies are benefiting from them. Two, on the supply side, I don't see any new AI competitor that could topple the industry. What's actually being discussed is a slowdown in the U.S. But that also means a lot of opportunity for states that adopt AI and for other countries that lack capacity.
So you could call this a speed bump problem. But can a large-scale revaluation like this be justified? In my view, it's excessive, unless this speed bump turns into a pothole. Unless there are significant additional constraints on access to capital.
Right. People may be forced to postpone or fundamentally reconsider their spending due to market shocks or other environmental factors. Are you considering that possibility?
I am. But I think we have to look at the outcome from a certain angle. Ten gigawatts of AI power is roughly equal to the electricity used by about 350,000 households, or around 5,000 hotels. So if a state tries to block this construction, a large hole opens up in its budget. And remember, this fundamentally changes the narrative around inflation risk and the Fed's rate hikes. Today's performance indicators, in my view, show that the September rate hike was a mistake. It probably won't happen in December, but I think if conditions pose a risk to employment, the Fed will step in.
So I think there are internal stabilizers. And it's still too early to say AI infrastructure buildout will stop. As you saw, the Texas governor who was elected said he would allow existing projects to be completed. So many apocalyptic predictions may be exaggerated.
What if overall GDP growth slows? For example, if 75% of growth through 2026 is directly tied to AI infrastructure development, wouldn't a slowdown in that growth create a domino effect across financial markets?
We need to give credit to companies. They were very good at overcoming the tariff shock on the "tariff relief day," and they held up their earnings. Companies will find ways to respond even to the political shock of a "blue wave." I've heard that empty industrial plants and office space could be converted into data centers. So there will be ways to produce energy and build new gigawatts. I see this as an opportunity for American companies to show their ingenuity.
Would you buy a lot of these stocks right now? I'd like to remind you of the "tariff liberation day," the "DeepSeek liberation day," and the "day of awareness." The longest decline from the bottom lasted three days, after which a V-shaped symmetrical recovery occurred, and the market rose more than 20% over six months.
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Tom Lee said the stock market right now is like a compressed spring, but in a way different from what people expected. It's compressed in the downward direction. Meaning, a single frightening headline, a single failure, or a single canceled IPO could bring down the entire AI trend. And right after he said that, it actually collapsed. Nvidia fell more than 9% in a single day, and the Nasdaq entered a correction. So was Tom wrong, or did he foresee this?
Next, I'll explain Tom's caveat, his two predictions ahead of the election, and why the asset manager on the same panel said bonds could now take money away from stocks. At the end, I'll show you which of Tom's two predictions is still valid. The test is less than two weeks away.
Let's start with the caveat. In an interview just before the election, Tom Lee said the market reacts to every headline about AI. He said, "This market is like a spring compressed in the downward direction." What did he mean? Investors are already anxious. Tom said he had been meeting investors since late September, and many were very skeptical of this AI boom that many consider a "bubble." So when bad news comes, there's no cushion. He said, "If we see a failure, a rise in funding costs, or a canceled AI IPO, it will trigger risk aversion." Picture a room full of people already standing at the edge. When someone throws a plate, everyone flinches. Exactly that happened.
After that interview came the midterm elections. According to reports, the Democrats took control of both the Senate and the House. Investors began worrying about stricter AI regulation and a slowdown in data center construction. Then on Thursday, Nvidia fell more than 9%. The plate hit the floor.
That's right. But there's something interesting. Tom wasn't simply a pessimist. In the same interview, he also made two optimistic predictions. I'll come back to them shortly, but first there's another point every stock investor should hear.
Another important topic was interest rates. The host, Scott, pressed Tom hard. Wouldn't bonds compete with stocks if rates stayed high? Tom acknowledged that "bonds and TIPS compete with stocks." But he also raised a point I hadn't considered. He said, "High rates generate at least $10 trillion a year in investment income for American households. And not all of that goes to bonds. Some of it is going into stocks."
Meanwhile, an asset manager on the same panel spoke up in defense of bonds. Before I tell you what she said, let me ask you a question. If you invested in safe investment-grade corporate bonds for seven years, what return would you expect right now? 3%? 4%? Remember that answer. She said it's above 6%. She also pointed out that for someone in the top tax bracket, a comparable seven-year municipal bond yields more than 7%. Then she asked a question dividend investors should think about: why buy stocks yielding 4 to 5% when you can get 6 to 7% from bonds? She also mentioned about $8 trillion sitting in money market funds on the sidelines, some of which, in her view, could move into long-term bonds.
Wait, she also said something important for Nvidia investors. People won't sell large amounts of big tech stocks to buy bonds. Instead, it's more like adding bonds to a portfolio. So bonds are a real competitor, but they won't immediately drain interest in AI.
There's one more remark from that panel that caught my attention. One panelist said he was skeptical of Microsoft but still holds it. His reason was that Microsoft now allows multiple AI models such as Claude and OpenAI's, which makes the product much more attractive to users. But he added a warning: "We'll probably know in a few years whether all this AI spending is justified. If not, these stocks will fall."
Now, Tom's two predictions as promised. The first: he said the midterm elections would act as a kind of purge. He believed that once the election was over, political pressure on AI stocks would lift even if the Democrats took the Senate. The second: he said "third-quarter earnings would restore confidence in AI." So where do these predictions stand now?
The first prediction hasn't come true yet, at least not yet. Instead of relief, the market plunged after the election. Partly this is due to concerns about stricter regulation of AI and data center construction. Some investors may later see this as the purge, but right now it's adding pressure rather than relieving it. The second prediction still stands, and a big test lies ahead. Nvidia reports earnings on November 17th. The company has guided revenue of about $108 billion for the quarter, and there are already strong signals from Nvidia's suppliers, such as Foxconn's record October sales. If Nvidia meets expectations, Tom's second prediction could come true.
So what happens to this compressed spring? It could start releasing in the opposite direction. That's where the interest lies. A compressed spring stores energy in both directions. But to be honest, if earnings disappoint, the spring could compress even further to the downside. That's the risk.
To summarize: what was the compressed spring Tom described? It meant investors were so nervous about AI that any negative headline could trigger a large sell-off, and that's exactly what soon happened. Are bonds draining money from stocks? They are a real competitor with a safe yield above 6%, but the experts didn't expect people to start selling large amounts of big tech stocks. What were Tom's two predictions? The prediction that the midterms would act as a purge hasn't happened yet. The prediction that earnings would restore confidence will be tested on November 17th.
This isn't investment advice, but if I had to sum up the key takeaway in one line: the compressed spring doesn't care which direction it releases in, and that direction could be decided on November 17th.
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