저자: Daniel · 외국인
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엔비디아는 AI 수요로 성장 중이나 최근 분기 매출이 전년 대비 약 20% 감소하고 영업이익은 크게 줄었다. 고정비 구조 때문에 이익 하락폭이 더 크다. 주가수익 대비 매출배수(P/S)가 과거 고점 근처(약 24배)라 기대가 과도하게 반영됐다고 본다. 밸류에이션과 실적 기준으로 향후 1년간 큰 하락 가능성을 언급하며, 본인은 투자 대상으로 적절하지 않다고 판단한다. 투자 권유가 아닌 개인 의견이다.
다듬은 글
Nvidia stock nvda is up around 80 percent eight zero percent year-to-date 2023 a very strong showing this is partly due to the excitement around the artificial intelligence boom and what is expected to be surging demand for nvidia's chips in the years ahead and you can even ask open AI one of the Pioneers with artificial intelligence you know how could Nvidia benefit here and they go look as AI applications and research has grown exponentially so is the demand for computational power necessary to train and deploy these AI models talk about the need for gpus or the graphic processing units that Nvidia sells for data centers and cloud services machine learning and deep learning so training the models and autonomous vehicles these are all things that Nvidia is selling into and you can see this with their results and this is part of the reason why Nvidia has become one of the Wall Street Darlings over the last few years where you can see compute and networking Revenue one of their key business drivers has gone from around three and a half billion in Revenue just a few years ago to around 15 billion dollars that's four and a half times growth is partly due to Acquisitions but also due to pure organic growth so it's a combination and it's just a surging demand in the cloud now the core Cloud providers you know these hyperscalers the the Google the Amazon uh you know Microsoft Microsoft Azure you know they're looking at this and they recognize they're buying a lot more processors than they have in the past and they're thinking hey could we tweak our own and so you see Google you know coming out with their own iterations of their own chips the tensor processing units that they claim are a bit faster 1.2 to 1.7 times faster 1.3 to 1.9 times using less power than nvidia's chips so it is you know you you will see some competitive pressures from some of their customers saying hey maybe we could do this better ourselves but we'll see how this plays out especially because Nvidia they're not just sitting back they're not resting on their Laurels they continue to invest in the business coming out with new and exciting products for example just recently they talked about the Clara Hollow scan which is a hybrid Computing platform for medical devices combining hardware systems for low latency sensors and networking connectivity so you're talking about connecting surgical video ultrasound Medical Imaging combining it with so you have all this data coming in combining it with artificial artificial intelligence this is one of the types of platforms types of Hardware that you're going to need to see to see the breakthroughs with artificial intelligence in the medical industry in the years ahead so one of the key takeaways that I think you should get from this video is that Nvidia is clearly powering the future and it is a bright future it's an exciting feature when you think about what artificial intelligence can do and what Nvidia is empowering so from that perspective I certainly want to align myself with it with sort of saying hey you are empowering the future but then you also have to understand well what are the fundamentals look like for this business you know are they matching the promise and the excitement that we're seeing so we're going to talk about that as well as always if this is your first time tuning in my name is Daniel you're watching unrivaled investing if you enjoy educational investment videos please make a point of hitting that Thumbs Up Hit That subscribe button so as we look at you know what's going on with Nvidia they called this out here it is Jensen Huang from the last quarter he's calling this out like look this is a absolutely huge opportunity and I agree with him you know he talks about large language models like what you have with opening eyes chat gbt they're called large because they are quite large and he talks about accelerating an advanced AI processing and how it has increased by a million x over the last decade that's accelerating AI processing and he talks about how Moore's Law and its best days would have only delivered 100x in a decade so these they they have enabled with their with their investments in their chips they've enabled large language model processing a million times faster over the past decade that's a big big deal and talking about what used to take a couple of months in the beginning is now taking just about 10 days now why is this such a huge opportunity because the large language model that you have with open AI That's just sort of a broad model you're going to have a lot of models that are going to require data that open AI couldn't get that's going to be exclusive to companies that are behind the wall and there's there's so many different angles here you know they talk about okay well you have different countries you have different cultures you have different fields different domains whether it's bio biology or physics you haven't seen the the future GPT model that is deeply embedded and deeply working with let's say a lot of deep physics or a lot of deep biology and having some of the best you know sharpest Minds say hey let's make sure this model is tweaked and refined and find you know fine-tuned based on this data and these inputs and these you know papers what does that mean and so I think there's going to be a lot of fine tuning with chat GPT and other large language models for particular sectors and he looks he calls out like look companies around the world have their own proprietary data the most valuable data in the world are proprietary it belongs inside the company it will never leave the company so you're gonna have to have a lot of custom models built not only for specific verticals for different areas like like the the hard Sciences like I just called out but also individual companies that don't want their data to get you know broadly read by you know open AI you say okay well it needs to be trained just on but on what we have and we're not going to let it out in the world you know so that way it really is sort of this black box based on the data we have that will be very powerful but it's going to take time and it's going to require a lot of demand for nvidia's gpus and their processors now you need to combine this excitement which I think is very real with the actual fundamentals you know what what is their actual performance look like what's actually driving nvidia's results and so they break it up into two different ways you see compute networking and Graphics that's two different segments or they show it by Revenue by market platform and so either way how you slice it and dice it in the last quarter it was pretty weak where compute networking that was what I just showed as being up four and a half times in about three years you know that was up 14 in the most recent quarter so you might say that well that's quite strong but Graphics which is you know the larger part of their business that was actually or roughly the same you know it depends on which which quarter you're looking at that was actually down around half and you could look at once again the market platforms data center up around 11 but gaming down 46 professional visualization down 65 Automotive is up you know 100 plus but it's a very small base you know you're talking about you know a couple hundred you know million dollars um versus you know where you are with the market of you know a 3.6 billion for data center or gaming of 1.8 billion so you can see and this is the latest period right here the the most recent quarter but broadly looking at weak results even though there's still strength in data center uh their total revenue was down uh from you know what what you're looking at of 7.6 billion to 6 billion year over year um you know about a 20 drop and that 20 drop is made even worse by the fact that they have a lot of fixed costs in this business you know just because you have let's say underlying weakness in certain you know markets doesn't mean that you're automatically going to let go of a lot of the scientists the researchers you know they you still have to keep the factories going well in this case they don't they don't actually use the factories because they're they're using Taiwan semiconductor to manufacture the chips but you'd still have a lot of fixed costs with your researchers you know your your employee base and so looking at this if you have a let's say 20 drop in Revenue you're dropping an operating profit can be much much worse and so that's what we've seen down around 60 percent in the most recent quarter if you just for stock based compensation down closer to 40 either way it's a significant drop in operating profit which doesn't really jive with what we've seen with Nvidia stock so far so okay so where does Nvidia go from here first quick plug I just started buying a stock that I think has over 300 upside that I called out to my subscribers at unrivaledinvesting.com I also expect to raise prices soon so now is the time to act if you'd like to lock in a favorable rate at unraveledinvesting.com and take charge of your investment journey I also offer educational courses for those that are interested in learning how to value stocks and read financial statements as well that's at unrivaledinvesting.com in full disclosure this is not Financial advice so looking at Nvidia where they are right now well they did provide you know guidance as of the most recent quarter and keep in mind this is just a few weeks ago saying yeah despite all this excitement despite all this promise this next quarter we're still expecting around a 20 Decline and given you know the the high fixed cost nature of this business once again you're not able to necessarily you know change your employee base with how how Revenue changes you know you could see a similar change potentially even worse with profitability we'll see how that sort of shapes up that's an important point to understand so you're not seeing dramatic strength in the results at least in the immediate term maybe later on this year we'll see but I'd argue looking at nvidia's valuation this is their past decade price to sales multiple early on this was at two to three times sales now it's near a record of 24 time sales almost at the peak of where it was previously closer to 35 times sales the reason why this is so particularly alarming when I look at this is I'm thinking that one the higher the valuation the faster you have to grow in the future in order to just meet expectations because when you see a chart like that that's that that shows you the valuation that means that's the expectations that's that's getting built into it that means it's going to be increasingly difficult to meet those expectations in my opinion even if the the future is very promising which which I believe it is but I think you're looking at a business that still has you know Graphics you know uh professional gaming you know gaming uh graphic designers that market you know that hasn't gone to zero that's a part of their business I don't think that's necessarily going to see the huge growth that AI could have but this isn't you know looking at a business that's going to be able to grow let's say 50 per year going forward at least I I don't think so you know I think it's important to say okay the the hyper growth the bigger you are the harder it is for you to grow at hyper speeds and so let's let's talk about you know some of some of these elements you know in a second thinking about their valuation in particular but this does make me think that Nvidia over the next year could perform terribly that's that's what it makes me think when I look at that chart when I see okay you're near prior Peak valuation like you and by the way the fundamentals that you're calling out aren't that compelling you know most recently you're talking about around 20 decline in Revenue when you look at their prior Peak earnings so that's fiscal 22 not their most recent fiscal 2023 physical 2022 they're around 10 billion dollars in earnings so most recently as their revenue sort of plateaued and they kept hiring so you can see Revenue went from 26.9 billion to 26.97 billion you know but they kept on hiring they did have some some you know some acquisition termination costs 1.3 billion but still broadly you know they were they were hiring continuing to expand the research and development team continuing to expand their sales in general and admin costs you know you look at this and their profits were much much lower so even though sales were effectively flat marginally higher you know their profitability was closer to four or five billion you know if you add back you know one-time costs so a huge drop from where it was in fiscal 2022 but even if you say oh no this was an anomaly you got to focus on 2022 it's still trading at a really very rich valuation of 67 times earnings prior Peak earnings by the way if you use actual trailing Figures it's the the figures looks absurd so how how should you think about Nvidia going forward I do a very rough framework you know thinking about it currently around 656 billion dollar valuation this is a hypothetical valuation framework of course stock price can go way higher way lower but I want to look at what would it take to have a great return from here so I'm assuming 35 you know 30 to 35 percent operating profit margins they're not there right now though their margins are much lower right now because they've hired and their sales haven't you know kept up their sales have been weaker but let's say it gets back to this level I'm assuming this year you know Management's guiding to a sizable drop maybe it's actually only shakes out to be zero percent this next year maybe another flat year we'll see this could be very uh aggressive you know given what they've already targeted for their first quarter we'll see how that plays out then let's look at the next you know four years because I always try to have a long-term framework you know all in about five years thinking okay this AI opportunity is clearly real and clearly Nvidia should benefit from this so maybe you have 15 annualized growth maybe of 25 annualized growth Beyond fiscal 24 so this upcoming year assuming this best case scenario where you get back to 35 profit margins which you're not at you get to 25 annualized growth which you're not at and you get 30 times earnings multiple then the stock is flat over the next five years if you do not deliver on any of these variables then you could be in a world of pain in Nvidia stock over the next five years and that's why it wouldn't surprise me to see this as one of the biggest losers in the next year or two because if you just have a small change in perception on the valuation or you have a small change in perception on what that long-term growth rate looks like in the years ahead instead of let's say 25 people say you know what maybe it's really 15 maybe it's really 20 maybe it's appropriate to use a 20 times multiple then you could see stock price down 50 percent easily from here so I look at this and I'm thinking I'm really excited about what Nvidia is investing in you know founder-led business profitable you know long-term growth potential but when I invest I also want to see things that have fundamentals and valuation a line and have a promising you know picture because you always have to have you know you consider three components that drive returns fundamentals valuation in the cash flow to shareholders on this perspective the fun recent fundamentals are weak maybe it gets better in the future the valuation is just awful and the cash flow it's not like they're returning huge amounts of cash flow to shareholders they're reinvesting in the business for the most part so I you know when I'm thinking about my own personal investment journey I want the exact opposite I want to see strong growth you know my most recent letter I'm calling out a company growing 40 plus I want to see valuation where it's trading at a low teens multiple and I want to see cash flow that can get returned to shareholders those are the types of things that I want to see this is just even though I think Nvidia is aligned with a very exciting future and I'm I'm excited I'm grateful that they're going to be building cool stuff that I'm sure I will indirectly benefit from I'm just not sure that this is appropriate for my own personal investment Journey at this point if you have a different take or think I'm missing a big angle on why they can grow let's say faster than 25 annualized in the years ahead I definitely want to hear it in the comments below because I'm excited about their potential but I also want to temper it with hey what's what's reality and what does valuation look like if this video has been helpful for you please make point of hitting that Thumbs Up Hit That subscribe button thanks so much for watching unrivaled investing
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