저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 캐시 우드는 엔비디아 일부 매도를 후회할 수 있다고 인정하면서도 테슬라를 최선의 투자처로 보며, 향후 1~2년 내 인플레이션 둔화 후 디플레이션 진입을 전망한다. 엔비디아: 2023년 10월부터 지분을 줄여 약 130만 주 → 39만 주 수준으로 축소. 주가 1년간 약 160%+ 상승을 놓친 부분 인정, 추정 손실 기회 약 2억 달러. 현재 PER 대비 매력 낮아 신규 매수 보류, 과거 대비 밸류에이션 부담 지적. 테슬라: 2027년 주가 2,000달러 도달 가능성 제시(현재가 대비 약 1,030% 상승 여력). 로보택시가 소프트웨어 마진으로 수익화될 것이라는 가정 기반, 2030년 로보택시 매출 8~10조 달러 추정. 실세계 주행거리 데이터 우위 강조. 기타 AI 종목: 유아이패스(UiPath)를 두 번째로 큰 AI 보유 종목으로 언급, 매출 대비 약 6배 밸류에이션. 엔비디아 밸류 약 25배 매출 언급. 거시경제: 인플레이션 급등은 공급망 충격(코로나, 우크라이나 전쟁) 때문이며 향후 빠르게 디플레이션 영역 진입 전망. GDI가 GDP보다 정확하다고 주장하며 최근 2분기 GDI 마이너스로 경기침체 신호로 해석. 홈디포 동일점포매출 3~5% 감소 가이던스 언급. 중국: 코로나 이후 투자했다가 2020년 11월 이후 규제 강화로 노출 축소. JD 등 일부 보유하나 비중 최소화, 자본 유입 재개 전까지 관망. 암호화폐: 규제 때문에 미국에서 코인베이스 등이 버뮤다·싱가포르로 확장 중이라 지적. 탈중앙·감사 가능한 통화시스템 필요성 강조, FTX 붕괴를 중앙화 금융 취약성 사례로 제시. 출연자 관점: 디스럽티브 혁신 포트폴리오 운용의 어려움 인정, 종목 선택 리스크 존재 언급.
다듬은 글
With our five-year investment time horizon, and having been around this block a number of times, we know they're going to come to a deal. They are not going to deprive government employees of their paychecks, or retirees of their Social Security, because it would be politically disastrous as we head into this election year. The field has already heated up significantly, so they're going to get through this. It's a very short-term phenomenon. It might be a short-term fix, and hopefully they do get serious about this at some point, but we don't think now is the time.
Cathie Wood's investment firm ARK Invest may regret selling almost 1 million shares of Nvidia between October and the present, considering the chipmaker's impressive year-to-date surge of over 160 percent. Nvidia's stock skyrocketed by 30 percent on Thursday following the company's announcement of remarkable guidance, benefiting from increased demand for its chipsets supporting generative AI platforms like OpenAI's ChatGPT and Alphabet's DeepMind. However, despite being an active investment manager who has held Nvidia on and off since 2014, ARK Invest missed out on substantial gains as it started reducing its position with the first sale on October 5th, when it owned 1.3 million shares.
Since then, Nvidia's stock has surged by 190 percent, adding 620 billion dollars to its market value. By late November, ARK Invest held only slightly over 500,000 shares, and it currently holds 390,000 shares across its next-generation technology ETFs, excluding its flagship disruptive innovation fund. Rough estimates suggest ARK Invest potentially missed out on over 200 million dollars in profits by selling its Nvidia stake at the end of the previous year.
We have been very positive on Nvidia. We bought it down when it hit nearly a hundred dollars in the fourth quarter last year, and then it tripled, as some of our other AI-oriented stocks stood still. Believe it or not, many people do not believe this about us, but we're looking at relative valuations of names in the AI space. We were looking at Nvidia at 25 times sales, which is where it is, and Tesla, which is probably the biggest AI story out there, at six times earnings. UiPath yesterday, I mean not earnings, six times sales, reported. It is a beautiful AI play, and it too is at six times sales.
As far as Nvidia goes, there are a few reasons we take some pause. It still meets our minimum hurdle rate of return, 15 percent at a compound annual rate over five years, and you'll see it in some of our more specialized portfolios. We're looking for the better values, but the risks to Nvidia would include cyclicality. When I hear shortages, shortages, shortages about GPUs or anything, I begin to think about the cyclicality of a group. Competition is also coming: Tesla is coming up with its own chip, Meta Platforms and Google have their own chips for more specialized large language models, and the tech itself is advancing. We're learning from Meta Platforms that the Llama model can do more with less computing power but more data. It's able to deliver better models, so there are puts and takes here, as there always are.
People who understood the Nvidia story, we were pounding the table on it from 2014 until really 2021, and many people put it into their own portfolios and may have held it. We have not gotten much pushback, and the reason is that people know we are on AI, but we're doing it in a somewhat differentiated way. Nvidia has become a check-the-box stock, which is why the valuation is where it is. We are looking for plays that have not only the vision from a management team point of view and broad distribution, but also proprietary data and AI expertise. So we're pivoting to another set of plays that most people have not discovered yet, much like they did not understand that Tesla was an AI play until very recently.
ARK Invest has previously released a valuation model that predicts Tesla's price will reach 2,000 dollars per share by 2027, indicating a remarkable upside of 1,030 percent from its current price. This valuation model relies on the concept of robotaxis, a topic recently discussed by Tesla CEO Elon Musk in an interview with CNBC. Musk stated that Tesla's full self-driving technology would eventually enable the company to sell cars at software margins. He also praised ARK Invest for its comprehensive analysis of this subject.
Tesla has more data, and I'd talk about proprietary data here. It has more data on real-world driving miles than all of the other auto companies and technology companies like Waymo put together around the world. We would say that, except perhaps China, because we don't know exactly what's going on there. We do believe the autonomous taxi platform opportunity is a winner-take-most opportunity. The company that gets a person in an autonomous vehicle from point A to point B as quickly and as safely as possible is probably going to get the lion's share of the market, and that company will be Tesla in the United States. We believe globally that opportunity will scale from zero today to eight to ten trillion dollars in revenues by 2030.
So you can see why we're so excited by Tesla. It is the furthest advanced from an AI point of view, and it's even becoming a manufacturer of factories using artificial intelligence, becoming more and more efficient in manufacturing factories and cars. We think it's the most efficient in the world right now.
Our history with China after COVID: we plowed in during COVID because we liked what China was doing from a monetary and fiscal point of view. They were not overdoing it. Then, starting in November of 2021, management was basically banished from their companies, and there was one restriction and regulation after another, so we've pulled away quite significantly. "Common prosperity" seems to mean very low profit margins and services that reach into tier-one and tier-two cities. We have some JD Logistics and JD exposure, but we have minimized it until China seems more inviting to capital once again.
When history books are written, we'll look back at this period and see the sharp rise in inflation, which was caused by massive supply chain shocks from COVID and the war in Ukraine. It feels like it's coming down so slowly, but when you look at these charts in history, this decline will look very rapid, and we will descend into deflationary territory. Don Luskin wrote an editorial in the Wall Street Journal about this, and I think the Fed is going to be blamed for sending us into a deflationary period. We're already getting negative signs in guidance. Home Depot's same-store sales are down 3 to 5 percent for the year. We have GDI, gross domestic income, which is the other side of gross domestic product, and they need to equal each other, but they're at a record gap right now. It has been negative, in recession territory, for the last two quarters. I think many companies are going to feel a hard landing, and it will come from both units and prices. More and more companies are reporting this in their earnings reports. These economic statistics that take all the oxygen out of the room are hugely lagging, and they're not even getting it right. If you look at the digital world, the gross domestic product statistic was devised in the industrial age, and in the digital age right now we pay more attention to gross domestic income, which tends to be more accurate as we see these inconsistencies.
The challenges of actively managing a portfolio focused on disruptive investments are evident in ARK Invest's decision to sell off part of its Nvidia holdings. Despite selecting the right investment theme, there is no guarantee of choosing the right companies to invest in. ARK Invest consolidated its portfolio by reducing its Nvidia position as the stock's valuation was very high. Instead, ARK Invest is placing its confidence in UiPath, its second-largest AI-focused holding across all its ETFs. Tesla remains its convex top holding with its self-driving technology and AI endeavors. However, both UiPath and Tesla have captured only a portion of the year-to-date gains seen in the industry.
In other news, Cathie Wood has expressed concerns about the U.S. regulatory system hindering its position as a leader in the Bitcoin movement. Wood pointed out the shift of cryptocurrency's center of gravity away from the United States due to unfavorable regulations, citing Coinbase's expansion into Bermuda and Singapore. She emphasized the need for a decentralized and auditable monetary system, highlighting the vulnerabilities of centralized financial systems shown by FTX's collapse.
Managing portfolios of disruptive investments is challenging, and while there are differing opinions on ARK Invest's decisions, the potential of Tesla reaching 2,000 dollars per share by 2027 remains a topic of discussion. Share your thoughts in the comments section below. For more DailyDose Crypto news, check out the two videos on your screen.
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