저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
비트코인은 하락 과정을 거쳐 바닥을 찍었으며 변동성 큰 상승 추세가 재개될 것으로 봄. 금은 하락하는 반면 일부 금속은 상승 중이라 자산 흐름 전환 가능성 언급. 인플레이션(CPI 4.2%)이 1~2%대로 크게 하락해 10년물 금리가 급락할 수 있다고 주장. 생산성 성장률은 현재 약 2.9%에서 5~6%대로 가속될 것으로 전망. 기술혁명에 따른 성장이 예상보다 강해 재정적자 축소와 GDP 대비 부채비율 하락 가능. 연준 워시 의장의 개혁 방향에 긍정적이며 민간 신용시장 우려는 과도하다고 평가. 영상 중반부터 광고(가상자산 거래 플랫폼 홍보)가 포함됨.
다듬은 글
Metals in relation to gold. Yes, it's starting to rise. Gold is falling. Uh, some metals are going up. Bitcoin had been declining . It appears to be in a deep process. Uh, we believe it has bottomed out on this basis and that uh it will resume. Very volatile, but with a broad upward trend . Interest rates have risen recently.
Hmm, this tug-of-war between rapid growth and much lower-than-expected inflation will be interesting. Now we move on to market indicators. So I keep watching this metric wondering if the positive correlation here will ever be triggered again. Um, we're seeing a little bit here. The gap remains wide.
Uh, but uh, metals in relation to gold, yes, are starting to rise. Gold is falling. Uh, some metals are going up. It's not powerful yet. Well , at least there's a small twist. And yes, interest rates have risen recently. Hmm, this tug-of-war will be interesting: rapid growth versus much lower-than- expected inflation.
So, what will the 10-year Treasury yield respond to most ? Um, we believe there could be a collapse in Treasury yields if we are right that inflation will move significantly away from the overall 4.2%, which is the CPI at the moment, towards something much lower. Real inflation is already lower and we could see it turn negative.
The government's measures could be moving into the range of one to two percent. Uh, here, as you know, we've been watching the S&P in relation to everything . Uh, this is a measure of wealth. We believe that oil is a leading indicator of another. But you can see that wealth collapsed in the 1970s until the early 1980s according to this measure.
And he threatened to do it again recently with the Strait of Hormuz and the Iran war. Hey, but he's recovering well. And on the next page, an even stronger measure of real wealth. The S&P relative to gold also collapsed during the 70s. Um, it was threatening to do so again here. Uh, yes, it broke below a range that made us feel a little uncomfortable.
Uh, although crude oil, crude oil, or the S&P versus crude oil, wasn't validating it. However, we are happy to see it rising again and we believe it still has a long way to go in this technological revolution. Bitcoin versus gold: gold is falling. Bitcoin had been declining. It appears to be in a deep process.
We believe it has bottomed out on this base and will resume the highly volatile but broad upward trend shown in this chart. Are the credit markets warning us about something ? No. Everything is calm, even with the outflow of capital from private credit. I saw that Blue Owl had to limit two of its private credit funds to 5% again.
I believe one of them had a withdrawal request of almost 40%. So, even with that, they remain stable. These are bank credit default swaps. And basically what they're saying is that what's happening in the world of private credit isn't infecting the banking system and, therefore, won't become systemic.
Kevin Warsh's five working groups. I think he's going back to basics, which I love because I think we need a lot of improvements in monetary policy. His first working group is on Fed communications. I think by this he means that he considers it unnecessary for all the Fed governors to speak almost daily and disrupt the markets.
And we couldn't agree more. It gives high-frequency traders something to do , but I do n't think it's really helpful for the markets . The second focuses on the Fed's balance sheet , which remains at $6.7 trillion. It has dropped from 8.5 trillion. But I believe it will reinstate quantitative tightening at the right time to further reduce the balance.
And I simply don't know when the right time is . He doesn't want to scare the markets. We know that. And I have often said that quantitative tightening is more symbolic to me, because what they do is simply reduce the bank reserves at the Fed that have not been activated in the form of loans. So I think putting that in order is probably a good idea, certainly eliminating risks from the system.
The third is data sources, and I think it will turn to private sector data sources, or at least more of them. I don't think it will dismantle government data. But he will certainly cross-reference government data with private data and will likely incorporate more private sources into the Fed's research .
The fourth is productivity and employment during this transformation, as he calls it. Recognizing that we are in a technological revolution and that productivity is probably accelerating, something that government statistics are not accurately capturing. Well, productivity is around 2.9% year-on-year at the moment.
We believe it will accelerate to the 5 to 6 % range. This year will be a bit confusing because productivity a year ago was negative in the first quarter. So that 2.9% is in the face of a negative result. But then there are two very big comparisons. The figures, the rapid growth in productivity last year, were quite surprising.
I think that since many people were delaying hiring and using more AI, it should be even more the case, but there will be difficult comparisons. So I just wanted to mention that while we maintain our view that productivity growth will accelerate year-on-year towards that 5 to 6% range sometime during the next five years, probably sooner rather than later.
And then, lastly, there's the Fed's inflation framework, its models, its measures, and so on. I think this is a clue that Kevin Walsh believes the inflation figures are somewhat distorted, and we expect he's looking at private data such as real inflation, which indicates it's much lower than the government thinks.
Deficit in relation to GDP. The green line there is where Treasury Secretary Bessant intends to bring the deficit down by the end of 2028, or at least by fiscal year 2028. That is, September 2028. We believe that he and this administration will achieve a much smaller deficit because growth will be much stronger, we believe, than most forecasts, including those of the government itself, predict.
Here is a chart. The green line is debt, public debt in relation to GDP. So it's above 100% . And that has a lot of people very worried. Now you can look at the purple line, which is debt relative to equity in the United States . And you can see that it has a downward slope. We like to think of stocks as a representation of existing wealth .
So debt relative to wealth is decreasing. However, while I was traveling, this debt-to-GDP ratio has been receiving a lot of press, mainly because people think that interest rates and inflation will remain stuck at these levels for a long time because the debt seems intractable. And that we can only get out of this problem through inflation.
We completely disagree. This figure doesn't alarm us that much . We believe that as this government focuses on reducing that deficit. That debt in relation to GDP will start to fall again, especially if we are right in predicting that growth will significantly exceed expectations. Hi, I'm Maria from Daily Go Crypto.
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You'll receive a $100 bonus and start growing your assets intelligently. Click the link below to open your account now and begin your journey to generational wealth. So here, I wanted to take a look at both fiscal and monetary policy at once, to show the contrast between today, now that we're pretty much on the other side of the COVID boom and bust, and the 60s and 70s, and you can see how different everything was back then.
The purple line represented federal spending, and you can see what the so-called guns and butter did then. Weapons, we were in the Vietnam War, so defense spending was booming and the social programs put in place back then boosted public spending. And you can see from the green line that, although it didn't fully compensate for it, over time the growth of money accelerated and, really, by the end of the 70s it was financing all this spending.
And it was an intractable problem until Volcker came along in the early 80s, late 70s , and simply put the brakes on. And you can see that he put on the brakes and stood firm every time inflation fears resurfaced. He stepped on the brake again. So the growth of money slowed down quite significantly.
That's part of the story. It's understandable why so many people feared we would return to that environment. And it was because of what happened during COVID, and also because of trying to recover from the 2008-2009 disaster and then having to deal with the pandemic. These are very long-term data, in terms of their 4-year annualized exchange rates.
As you can see, we're already on the other side, and although federal spending has recently rebounded—largely due to defense—from a growth rate standpoint, based on a 4-year moving average , it's still near the lower end of this chart's history . Just like the growth of money. That's why we believe that fiscal and monetary policy, after the shocks of 2008-2009 and COVID, has been restored and we are in a good place , so fears about debt as a percentage of GDP continuing to rise are misplaced.
Now, regarding foreign holders of Treasury bonds. Based on the prevailing narrative, one might think that all central banks are selling Treasury securities and that the dollar's days are over, but this chart shows that this is not true. There have been some sales. We know that both China and India have been selling.
But, for the most part, they have been a drag on the growth rate. However, overall, Treasury securities held by foreigners continue to increase. We wanted to put this into perspective because last time we showed a chart where Türkiye had practically run out of Treasury bills . He had been supporting his currency by selling Treasury bills, taking the dollars and buying Turkish lira.
We see that currencies around the world, such as Japan and Korea—which I mentioned earlier—are at low levels; I believe the yen is at a 40-year low, at almost 162 yen per dollar. Stop. You don't have time. Don't miss this 2025 bull run. Educate yourself first to stay ahead of the crowd. We've created the ultimate step-by-step cryptocurrency guide that will guide you through this bullish streak . Discover the secrets of cryptocurrencies and make smarter investments today.
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