저자: ZackBakos · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리가 엔비디아·팔란티어·마이크론·오라클·네오클라우드(Nebius 추정) 등 AI 관련주에 풋옵션 베팅을 했다고 소개. 버리의 AI 버블 붕괴 논리(과도한 차입, 미확정 수익모델)를 설명하고, 발표자는 네오클라우드와 엔비디아는 조정 시 매수 관심, 팔란티어는 상승 추세로 보며 제외, 마이크론은 하락 시 매수 관심, 오라클은 이미 60% 하락해 공매도 매력이 낮다고 평가. 월가는 5개 종목 모두 매출 성장을 예상한다고 언급.
다듬은 글
Michael Berry just made five new bets that the AI bubble will burst. Nvidia, Nvidia, Palantir, Micron and Oracle. And he believes this collapse will happen in 2027. For him to make a profit, most of these stocks would have to fall by about 50%. The problem is that after his apt " big short," most of his warnings about the collapse were false.
Since 2021, the market has only grown after three of his four warnings that another major crisis awaits the market. But now he's back again and playing against the market again. While Wall Street is predicting significant growth for all five stocks it is betting against. So who is right this time? Well, I got the details of his deals.
I'll show you the graphs. I'll show you Wall Street numbers for all five companies. By the end of this video, you'll know which three I would actually buy on a downtrend. I really like three of these five stocks . I would personally skip two of them . So, let 's start the video and see what Michael Berry's logic is.
Michael Berry has a simple thesis. And I'll just simplify it. He believes that all these AI companies are borrowing too much money to build infrastructure with unproven business models. And these businesses are not yet making a profit from these large investments and huge debts they have taken on. However, the market is already pricing all these projects as if they were crazy money printing presses guaranteed to succeed.
In essence, the market is pricing all of these projects in with perfect efficiency. But he believes that by the end of 2027, the dominoes will start to fall, and at some point the market will realize that the debt is too high, the forecasts are too ambitious, construction is not going as fast, and revenue is not coming in as quickly.
And because of that, we will get a market crash or a significant pullback caused by AI, especially in stocks that will be most affected by it. So, what I'm going to do is this: we're going to take all of these stocks one by one. I'll show you the charts and the gist of his reasoning for the deals he makes on each of them.
So, Neobius, its put options expire in July ...sorry, June 2027. And the drop needed to reach its target levels is around $75 to $95. So when I look at Neobius, it's one of those stocks that I personally really like because I think the concept of neo- cloud companies has huge potential precisely because of the many delays that will occur as other companies build out the infrastructure, so who benefits from that ?
Neo-cloud companies. However, Neobius has recently risen significantly to new all-time highs, and it has been showing strong growth since October of last year, about a year ago. It was a stock in the $70 to $120 range, and it has more than tripled since then, rising all the way to $290. I currently have a position in Neobius, for full transparency, which I opened at around these prices, around $160, when we saw a significant liquidation event in Neobius stock.
Do I think I've hit rock bottom ? Well, midterm election years often see periods of volatility. So I believe we could see another correction for Neobius, but for Neobius to fall all the way to... how much is that? The $ 100 or $80 range where its strikes would be, I think something would have to go terribly wrong with the AI sector for that to happen .
I believe this is a very strong stock that is developing rapidly fundamentally. As for the charts, I don't see any red flags that would tell me that this stock is going to fall another 50%. In fact, it's quite the opposite. I really think there 's a pretty strong level of support here. Even during a market correction, when everything in the markets is falling massively, I believe that considering Neobius in the $104 range is more of an opportunity to buy on the dip than something I would start shorting.
At these levels, I am again simply sharing my personal opinion as opposed to Michael Burry's bets . I'm just showing these two contrasts. When it comes to Neobius, I personally really like this promotion. Again, I may be biased about this. I believe the 140 level will hold even if we have a more significant market correction.
If level 140 doesn't hold, that's the only time we'll be looking at, " Hey, these are the key levels for Neobius." This is the only case where we will analyze this. If the 140 level is broken, where is the next support level? Somewhere in the $ 100 to $85 range —that's really where I would look for a bottom for NIBIUS.
So, if I were an investor , I would think: I want to go in right here and maybe hold some cash in reserve in case of a big market event to buy stocks. I want to own a bigger share, and if some panic event is coming, I'm ready to take advantage of it. I think in the long term this is a very interesting opportunity, a very interesting asset.
Personally, I'm optimistic in the long term, but again, in the short term— Bury believes something terrible is going to happen. If the price drops, I'll just show you the levels and tell you exactly what I'll do if that actually happens. Another stock that Bury is betting against is good old NVIDIA.
Basically, I mean, one of the best stocks of the decade. So let 's see what Bury thinks. His put options expire in September 2027. A drop of about 35% is expected. Its strike price is somewhere in the range of 140 to 160. So when it comes to NVIDIA, I think more about what is their upside potential from here?
And honestly, I think NVIDIA is also pretty close to a significant local peak in the $250 range right now. I just think the upside potential is limited for buying NVIDIA at these prices, considering that if a truly scary event happens, and Michael Bury is right about something, that would temporarily significantly lower the prices of all these AI stocks.
Um, I think the likelihood of that happening within the next 12 months is pretty high. Why? Because every year something happens in the stock market . I wonder if something were to happen, would I buy this stock or would I not want to hold it at all? Or if so, wouldn't that be a good entry point for me?
Looking at Nvidia, I see the $106 range as a pretty interesting entry point. Why? I believe that Nvidia is a money-printing business , a reliable and proven business. They are also just entering the field of robotics. They have growth potential in the long term, but before I can wholeheartedly open a position in Nvidia, I'm waiting for a correction.
Give me a 30% drawdown and I'll be interested. I'm not interested in buying Nvidia right now at current market valuations and prices, but I would be very interested in getting in around $106 if I saw another 30% correction in Nvidia. And again, if you look at Bury's targets, he's targeting 160, 150, so that's ideal.
I think maybe the best approach here is to just look at what the strikes are in Bury and try to make them a little higher than those entry points for the long term. Um, I think from a short-term perspective, it makes more sense to me why he would do that, even if it was just a hedge for the portfolio.
I think Nvidia has good downside potential, and there 's also a clear support level, why wouldn't it want to hold this for longer. So I like this trade of his, even as a downside hedge, but personally I'm more inclined to buy these stocks if they fall lower. Let's move on to the next one. Next up—Palantir.
Well, Palantir is expected to fall by 45%, according to Bury's predictions. Its strikes are in the $100 to $120 range and expire in September 2027. So let's take a look at Palantir. Well, to be honest , at first glance, Palantir looks " bullish" to me. It actually just recently reached a new all-time high.
It appears to be in an uptrend. I really think Palantir—and I don't know personally what exactly was the catalyst for this breakout—but I think just based on technicals , it's the most bullish structure I've seen of the three so far. I really think Palantir could hit $250 as a new all-time high simply because of the momentum that's going on right now.
Where he could peak. I think Palantir's growth potential is very limited and no longer significant. And if someone wants to open a short position, that would be the level at which I would be willing to come in and bet against Palantir. Um, to be honest, I don't know Michael Bury's exact thesis on Palantir when it comes to downsizing goals.
Um, I think he mentioned this $120 range , which makes a lot of sense because that's also a very strong support level here. Um, he might also think that Palantir will just get stuck in this range, where this is the resistance level and this is the support level, and Palantir will move in this range throughout 2027.
Um, this is also a scenario that I can totally imagine and see in reality. Personally, I do not hold Palantir shares as a private investor. He may be considering a trade in this range for Palantir. Hmm, it's quite possible: either new historical highs with a subsequent correction through AI, or Palantir will move sideways for a while.
The next stock he bets against is Micron. Berry was expecting a level of around $500. So, the strike price is around 500, the expiration date is June 2027. The market estimates the probability of such a move for Micron at 9%. Well, let's see. I have a tool, one of my software solutions, that I use to predict different scenarios for individual stocks.
So let's see, if I turn on the bearish scenario right here, where does that take us? Oh, interesting. So, if we have a market correction in the next 3 months, it is likely that Micron price will fall to the 646 –650 range. This would make such deals extremely profitable for you. So, it's very, very interesting to see with my tool.
As for Micron, I see that the company has certainly made significant upward movement. Many people look at this fundamentally and say, "Look at the forecasts." " Look how much money this promotion is making." "This won't stop." Some will say: "This is a cyclical action." "She won't continue to grow like this." "The deficit will be solved." Ultimately, there are still no clear signs on the horizon that this deficit will be overcome.
Now, given the demand, we see only euphoria around chip purchases. There is euphoria around the construction of data centers, and everyone says that demand here is simply growing rapidly. So that's all we really know at this point. Can Micron survive such a correction? Well, it had already had a pretty significant correction—a drop of about 40% in July 2026, when Leopold essentially liquidated his fund.
Could we fail to reach a new all-time high and return to testing the level around 700? I think it's quite possible that we'll see again, well, maybe 50%—that's a lot . A big, very big drop all the way down to the 500s. According to my model, there is a chance that we will see something similar at Micron within the next few months.
So , let's see. I currently have no open positions in Micron. I think, as with Nvidia and some other stocks, the upside potential near historical highs is limited for me by downside risk. I'm not chasing these stocks. I want to enter these promotions on my own terms . So, again, if you see this drop, I just don't believe it's going to go below 600.
That would be, in my opinion, brutal, something extremely bad would have to happen for the price to fall to the 600 level. Could it fall to, say, 700? This would be much more interesting to me in terms of entry, valuation, and growth potential. I think Micron is a great stock for the long term. This is probably a unique opportunity for a generational purchase.
If you see this and Bernie hits the mark, well , he's a legend. That would be a crazy deal. I wouldn't open a short position myself, but I would definitely buy the drawdown. And the last stock he bets against is Oracle. The put options expire in December 2027. Execution prices—60 to 70. So what do I see for Oracle?
First, I look at the Oracle weekly chart, and you can see that the 275 -day moving average has been tested once, twice, three, four, five times in history, and once in 2000. This was the only time the price actually dropped below this level. After all, Oracle has already fallen 60% from its historical highs.
So what is Bernie doing here? Shorting something that has already fallen by 60%. If I were Bernie, I would ask him, "How do you assess the risk and reward in this deal when it's already down 60% from its all-time highs?" This is definitely a stock that could skyrocket on the back of positive news about AI .
Of the entire list, I would call this the worst short in his portfolio, simply because of how low it has already fallen. The only thing that comes to mind is that he is looking at the 31-20 support level, which appears to be very strong. And if you see a breakdown below this level, things could go very badly for Oracle.
I think Oracle is also among the companies with the highest debt and the highest risk. So, there is definitely a risk around Oracle, there is definitely a risk. This is also the reason why Oracle's stock price has fallen so much. Personally, I am not interested in buying Oracle. I also have no interest in playing Oracle bearish when it has already fallen 60% and is at a historically important support level.
Um, that's just my opinion on Oracle. And there are a few things I want to share as well, because what does Wall Street say about this? Because Wall Street is on the opposite side of the Burr. Because if you look at revenue growth, all of these companies are expected to make much, much, much more money than they did last year.
Maybe 260% growth, Nvidia up 68%, Palantir up 50%, Micron up 100% in revenue. Even Oracle is growing by 45% in revenue. So Burry is once again betting against some of the fastest-growing companies in the world that they will fail. And if I look at his price targets, that would lead to extremely cheap P/E valuations for some of these stocks.
For example, we see 9.4 x for Nvidia. We see 2.8 x for Micron, 5.9 x for Oracle. Okay, Palantir is still overvalued. And that's probably one of the main reasons why I'm personally skipping Palantir on this list, because it's significantly overvalued, but here's what we're looking at in terms of fundamentals and what this stock would be like on a P/E ratio basis .
Again, this is the difference between Burry. Burry wants Nvidia to fall by 60%. Wall Street sees a 30 % increase. These are the goals of Wall Street, banks, and mainstream analysts. Same with Nvidia for a 3 % increase from Wall Street. Burry is thinking about a 35% drop. My decision about them is this : I'm going to buy Nvidia.
What if it sinks? Give it to me. I'm buying. What if Nvidia fails? Give it to me. I also buy Nvidia. Palantir, it doesn't matter what it does. I don't trade it or buy it. And as for Micron, it's kind of a mystery, at least from this chart, because Wall Street thinks it's going to go up 50%, and Burry thinks it's going to go down 50%.
I think Micron definitely has a chance to bounce back from where it is now, but I would be interested in buying Micron on a dip. As for Oracle, I'm just skipping this option as it is. So, having said that, I want to encourage you to do one thing: go to zackmccosh.com—it's my free weekly newsletter where I share what I'm doing with my portfolio in real time.
What Stocks Am I Buying—this is the fastest way to get updates and notifications about my trades, market insights, and purchases directly from me. I hope this video was helpful to you . Let me know what you think about Berry Shares and some of these stocks: do you own them, or do you know something that I didn't mention in this video that would be valuable for me to know , as well as other people in this community . And yes, I wish you all the best and success in the markets.
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