저자: ZackBakos · 외국인
요약 보기
아마존(AMZN)은 펀더멘털이 견고하고 영업이익이 전년 대비 43% 증가했지만 주가는 16%만 올랐다. AI 데이터센터 투자로 잉여현금흐름은 5분기 연속 감소해 마이너스 70억 달러다. 과거 2022년처럼 600일 이동평균선을 깨지 않는 한 상승 여지가 있다. 1~2개월 내 소폭 조정으로 220~227달러 구간 진입을 목표로 하며, 목표가는 350~375달러다.
다듬은 글
For 6 consecutive months, Peter Thiel's fund held 100% of its capital in cash. And then they came back to make one of their biggest investments. Their biggest bet is $118 million on a single share, which now represents more than a quarter of their entire portfolio. And in the same 3 months, Stanley Druckenmiller's fund also bought almost the same number of shares.
On paper, this is a business that is operating at full capacity. Profits increased by 43% in 1 year. However, the stock has fallen about 11% from its all-time highs. And as you can see, some of the most prominent investors were buying it at today's prices. Today the stock is trading at 254. Peter Thiel entered it at about 251.
Druckenmiller—at 251. And David Tepper did— this is my dream, entry at 220 into this stock. So, when we look at price targets, I'm talking about upside potential again. I want to talk about stocks that I think will grow and make a lot of money. This is not financial advice, but Wall Street thinks so too .
And the largest banks are raising their price targets. Goldman Sachs—375 , 48% higher than current prices. JP Morgan— 365. Morgan Stanley—335. And today it's at 254. So you're looking at about 48% upside potential, according to the highest valuation for this stock. In this video, we'll discuss what this stock is, how it makes money, why the P/E ratio, which is a very interesting metric, is misunderstood by many analysts , and why I want to buy this stock.
So, at what price do I plan to buy it? What do I expect from her? I will also show you technical analysis. So, the stock we're going to talk about today is Amazon. This is, of course, a business that needs no introduction. Everyone knows what Amazon is, and they have a pretty diversified business. Their main business used to be, and the largest part of the business was, their large online store.
They also built a large delivery network and logistics centers. And then they went into data centers and started selling data center services essentially as a service. So, cloud subscriptions and cloud services for various companies, which now account for 60% of the profits of this business. And I'm not even talking about the robotics element and how that affects them, but that's still to come.
I think if we look at Amazon as a business in 3-4 years, we'll see, whether it's humanoid robots or robots in warehouses—this company is building and investing in a lot of things. I already mentioned that there is misleading data that many analysts are talking about when they claim: look, Amazon is so cheap.
It supposedly trades at a P/E ratio of 20. Well , maybe at first glance. The reality is that if you compare Amazon purely on business metrics, it trades at a multiple of 38. So it's not the cheapest stock on the market, and it definitely falls into the category of more expensive in terms of valuation.
Of course, not compared to Tesla, where the coefficient is 445, but where does this difference come from? So 20 or 38? Well, Amazon as a business makes big investments in other growing companies. It is known that they made a large investment in SpaceX, which then went public, bringing them a considerable profit.
But some time ago they also invested $18 billion in Entropic. And since Entropic is going to go public in the next, I don't know, 6-12 months, their valuation is around $2 trillion . So, their investment has grown about 10 times since then . If the IPO is truly valued at $2 trillion, that would add about $170 billion in profit from this investment alone.
So that's added to their revenue in the P/E ratio. Many analysts report this inaccurately, but of course, profit is profit, right? So, uh, but it's not just coming from the operational side of the business, it's coming from the investment side. It is important to understand the difference between revenue-based and profit-based stock valuations because this will not necessarily be a regular occurrence.
Now that I'm talking about entry points and technical analysis, let's take a look at how Amazon is doing right now and what the predictions are. So when we look at Amazon, the only chart I like to analyze, the only indicator I look at, is the 600-day moving average. And now, even on a 3- day chart, the first thing you can clearly see: the 600-day moving average is often a very strong support level for Amazon.
And as long as the bull market remains stable, this is historically the best opportunity to buy stocks. Whenever it trades and bounces off this level, it is likely that Amazon will continue to set new all-time highs. We are now in a situation where, as I mentioned, Amazon stock is down about 11% from its all-time highs, but there is still a little downside potential to retest that 600- day moving average.
Given the seasonality and current market conditions, I sense a lot of uncertainty, and I believe there is a high probability of a small correction in the next month or two for the S&P 500 that could bring Amazon shares back to their 600-day moving average. For this reason, the entry point that interests me most is somewhere between $227 and $220.
I think this will be a very interesting opportunity, especially because I want the 600- day moving average to remain unwavering. I used to want to be more aggressive in my entry into Amazon, considering the stock is a bit overvalued, at least for my taste . But I actually wanted to give up on it because I don't want to see another situation like in 2022 , when Amazon adjusted 56%.
One sign of this was the loss of the 600-day moving average, followed by a deeper correction and a bear market. So I'm very cautious because I don't want to put my money into this investment only to have it lose money for a year or two while the price fluctuates downward. I would rather just enter at lower prices and exit the position once this level is broken.
But again , my base case scenario is that in the next few weeks, maybe two months, we'll see these prices again on Amazon, and I'm interested in buying these stocks. I also mentioned price targets and what we expect in the future. Well, if you look at my personal price target, it's somewhere between the average and highest analyst estimates, which is $375.
The average target is about $327. From my entry point, this would mean about 47–69% of potential stock upside. I really think $350-$360 is a very realistic growth level for Amazon, at least for this extended period before the next downward correction wave begins. So, to summarize: my entry level is in the 220 range.
This is my dream entry point, which would perfectly match the prices at which David Tepper entered. Returning to fundamentals, Amazon's profits grew by 43% year-over-year. As you can see, quarterly operating profit for the second quarter of 2025 was about $19 billion. In 2026, it was already about 27 billion, and the pace is expected to increase over time.
But the share price increased by only 16%, while operating profit increased by 43%. This is a point worth paying attention to. Another interesting thing about Amazon: their free cash flow has fallen for five consecutive quarters as they are currently spending heavily on building new data centers and infrastructure for AI.
And, as you can see, this used to be the most profitable business. They had such a huge flow of free cash that they could afford to be very careful in their actions. But after they bet on AI, costs have only increased quarter after quarter, and now their free cash flow is minus $7 billion. Where does this money go?
About $220 billion has been invested in AI data centers this year . It is obvious that these are long-term investments, because the construction of such facilities takes time, as does the period until they begin to generate full income. So all of this will contribute to the company's revenue growth in the long term, not right now.
Sometimes it's necessary to invest, and we all know that there is a real boom in spending on AI right now. Over time, we will see how profitable and beneficial these investments will prove to be . But we do know one thing: Amazon has a lot of experience using data centers to make a profit. This business has been showing great results for years, and their AWS cloud division is currently showing its fastest growth in the last four years.
So, to sum up Amazon: fundamentally it's a solid business, and I really want to get into it. I'm hoping for the stock to drop to get my 220 and open a position. And again, if you want to see in real time what I'm doing with my portfolio and whether I've bought Amazon stock... If you're interested in other investments and ideas that I find very attractive, please subscribe to my free newsletter at zackbakhosh.com.
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